Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

I love the Greens

[jimmy olsen]

Ukranians are on the outskirts of Kupyansk. 5km from city center.
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1568182047838986242

[jimmy olsen]

That turn south is a dagger than is going to rip the front right open.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1568212241471737856

Approximately the situation around Izyum and Kupyansk.

[Threviel]

Hopefully! The Kharkiv area is great for counter-strikes though and there's a risk that they stick their necks out.

[Grey Fox]

Izyum and Kuypansk are, apparently, cut-off. Bad week-end ahead for the Russian forces.

[chipwich]

No one claimed it would be an easy operation

Issue for Ukraine will always be their resource disadvantage, and retaking captured land is a lot harder than defending. From what little we know through the fog of war it seems like the Ukrainians are doing this in the smartest way possible, focusing on logistical strikes that actively make it harder for the Russians to continue holding these areas and undermining advantages they have from being on the defense here.

I will say one really sad thought I have about this war is if the West and Ukraine had taken the threat of a Russian invasion more seriously post-Crimea, and the country had been able to pursue the sort of military reforms and improvements we've seen in the last 6 months, starting back in 2015, it is very likely Russia would not have been able to take much if any Ukrainian territory at all by 2022 due to simply being a less effective military.

Ukrainian democracy/stability was uncertain in 2015. Those munitions may well have gone to an enemy or a failed state.

[Josquius]

Also its been quite a shock just how shit Russia have been.
The expert consensus before hand was that their modernisation had been going well.

Support for Ukraine, despite high energy prices, remains high in Germany:

Loving that the nazi/left wing split there.

[Valmy]

Support for Ukraine, despite high energy prices, remains high in Germany:

I guess the alternative for Germany is to become a Russian puppet? Seems like a shitty alternative.

[Zanza]

Their reason to be against is that it is the mainstream position. Not much more depth to their politics.

[Legbiter]

Izyum and Kuypansk are, apparently, cut-off. Bad week-end ahead for the Russian forces.

Yeah, guess it was a bad call to denude the front of their more well-equipped troops and deploy them into Kherson on the west side of the Dnipro...

[celedhring]

It's still early days, and the russkies might staunch the bleed before it turns into a tragedy for them, but even I found obvious that after telegraphing for MONTHS that they were going to attack Kherson the whole thing would be a feint. Yet the Russians seem to have fallen for it hook and sinker. Don't they have any proper intelligence of any kind? Or just ways of, you know, spotting troop concentrations?

[Barrister]

It's still early days, and the russkies might staunch the bleed before it turns into a tragedy for them, but even I found obvious that after telegraphing for MONTHS that they were going to attack Kherson the whole thing would be a feint. Yet the Russians seem to have fallen for it hook and sinker. Don't they have any proper intelligence of any kind? Or just ways of, you know, spotting troop concentrations?

I still continue to think that the attack on Kherson was not a feint, and the AFU is conducting attacks in the Kherson region.  But the Russians have built up defences and the going in slow.

The attacks near Kharkiv have apparently been done fairly ad hoc, with little pre-planning and forces advancing in very lightly armed vehicles.  It's just that the RU forces were so poor they collapsed quite quickly and the Ukrainians have taken advantage of the sudden opening.

[Legbiter]

It's still early days, and the russkies might staunch the bleed before it turns into a tragedy for them, but even I found obvious that after telegraphing for MONTHS that they were going to attack Kherson the whole thing would be a feint.

The Ukrainians should not be able to saunter up to Russian positions in humvees, shoot them up and overrun, then drive deep into the Russian rear if any of the artillery or air force or just regular reserves actually functioned properly on the Russian side. 

[Sheilbh]

It's still early days, and the russkies might staunch the bleed before it turns into a tragedy for them, but even I found obvious that after telegraphing for MONTHS that they were going to attack Kherson the whole thing would be a feint. Yet the Russians seem to have fallen for it hook and sinker. Don't they have any proper intelligence of any kind? Or just ways of, you know, spotting troop concentrations?

And I wonder about the footage we are seeing from Kharkiv and the absolute lack of footage/content from Kherson. Ukraine are incredible at the information war. Part of me wonders if while being a real attack it is also being amplified (while Kherson is discussed less) to create pressure in the Russian military to respond and re-inforce Kharkiv - at which point the Ukrainians can maybe make a little bit dramatic advances in Kherson?

[PDH]

I wouldn't call the Kherson attacks feints, they seem real and while not the Russian-style hammer blows, they are wide area pinpricks with successes being exploited (then holding out against the inevitable counter-attacks).  It is slow, and painful war as evidenced in the reports.

The trick was not the telegraphing the offensive, nor building up troops, nor even the attacks, but rather the entire package which led the Russians to send in a lot of reinforcements to a place at the end of a tenuous supply line (that keeps getting more tenuous).  The Russians obviously felt that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could only make one major attack, and in this they were helped by "leaked" reports from the US saying that the military leaders urged only one offensive.

The fact that the Ukrainian Army has the ability to fight a more attritional war around Kherson, while having reserves to make this breakthrough is what made this such a success.  It might not lead to the Kharkiv Front Collapsing like north of Kyiv months ago, but it does seem that there is a chance of this.

Expect a lot of Russian missiles to attack civilian centers now as that is the standard Russian response to a military failure.