Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Solmyr]

Well, the Russians are currently recruiting new soldiers from prisons and mental asylums, so...

[OttoVonBismarck]

Russia's manpower issues are real because part of Putin's strategy for this war is to be able to go long, and he clearly wants to insulate "core Russia" from the negative effects of the war. Anything like a mass mobilization or a generalized draft of lots of regular Russians sons, would undermine that to a big degree, so it isn't surprising what they've been doing to press new soldiers into service.

[Syt]

On the topic of low Russian troop numbers:

Just looked up the numbers for WW2 battles in Ukraine. The 2nd Battle of Kharkiv in the Kharkiv/Izyum area had on the Axis about 350k troops, on Soviet side 750k over a period of about 2 weeks.

Now, I'm sure modern militaries can control more territory with fewer men than in WW2, but the difference to the number of fighting troops today is still huge, with both sides having much fewer in the entire theater.

[Valmy]

Yeah I am sure if there was an advantage to having 300,000 soldiers in one battle militaries would still be doing that. Maybe there is less utility to just grabbing random guy, giving him a few months training and handing him a rifle and sending him out there. Maybe more training and gear is needed to make a functional soldier these days and an old fashioned conscript would be pretty useless.

[Barrister]

Yeah I am sure if there was an advantage to having 300,000 soldiers in one battle militaries would still be doing that. Maybe there is less utility to just grabbing random guy, giving him a few months training and handing him a rifle and sending him out there. Maybe more training and gear is needed to make a functional soldier these days and an old fashioned conscript would be pretty useless.

I think that's exactly it.

Combat is far more lethal now than t was 80 years ago.  You need to be trained in some reasonably high-tech weaponry in order to be useful.  If you just give a man a rifle and send him to the front he's going to be a casualty pretty quickly.

By the way that might also help explain increased Ukrainian success.  At the initial invasion Ukraine did do a general mobilization, but those conscripts were of limited use.  6-7 months latera a lot of those guys are now well-trained, often by western militaries.

[Josquius]

Things are looking less good in Kherson

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/

[Crazy_Ivan80]

No one claimed it would be an easy operation

[Tamas]

Figures within the Russian military are said to be concerned that the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkiv will hinder communication between Russian forces in the region.

According to the latest assessment from US-based think tank The Institute for the Study of War, Russian milbloggers – military personnel who write blogs – have voiced concern that the operation seeks to cut ground lines of communication to forces in the cities of Kupyansk and Izyum, and that that could "allow Ukrainian troops to isolate the Russian groupings in these areas and retake large swaths of territory".

"These milbloggers used largely panicked and despondent tones, acknowledged significant Ukrainian gains," the institute said.

"The level of shock and frank discussion of Ukrainian successes by Russian milbloggers speaks to the scale of surprise achieved by Ukrainian forces, which is likely successfully demoralizing Russian forces."

[jimmy olsen]

Saw video of Russians getting hit while crossing a pontoon bridge.

[OttoVonBismarck]

No one claimed it would be an easy operation

Issue for Ukraine will always be their resource disadvantage, and retaking captured land is a lot harder than defending. From what little we know through the fog of war it seems like the Ukrainians are doing this in the smartest way possible, focusing on logistical strikes that actively make it harder for the Russians to continue holding these areas and undermining advantages they have from being on the defense here.

I will say one really sad thought I have about this war is if the West and Ukraine had taken the threat of a Russian invasion more seriously post-Crimea, and the country had been able to pursue the sort of military reforms and improvements we've seen in the last 6 months, starting back in 2015, it is very likely Russia would not have been able to take much if any Ukrainian territory at all by 2022 due to simply being a less effective military.

[The Brain]

Rumor says fairly high-ranking Russian officers have been taken prisoner.

[Josquius]

No one claimed it would be an easy operation

Sure, but that death ratio is unsettling.

[DGuller]

I will say one really sad thought I have about this war is if the West and Ukraine had taken the threat of a Russian invasion more seriously post-Crimea, and the country had been able to pursue the sort of military reforms and improvements we've seen in the last 6 months, starting back in 2015, it is very likely Russia would not have been able to take much if any Ukrainian territory at all by 2022 due to simply being a less effective military.

It may have been that if US started sending such military equipment in 2015 rather than 2022, then Russia would've openly invaded in 2015 as well.  US equipment or not, in 2015 the Ukrainian army would be in no condition to hold off Russia, with or without US equipment.

[DGuller]

No one claimed it would be an easy operation

Sure, but that death ratio is unsettling.

I quickly skimmed the article, but it all seems anecdotal.  It's very much possible that things may have gone badly for Ukraine somewhere, and the unfortunate soldiers affected may be extrapolating it to everywhere.

[celedhring]

No one claimed it would be an easy operation

Sure, but that death ratio is unsettling.

I quickly skimmed the article, but it all seems anecdotal.  It's very much possible that things may have gone badly for Ukraine somewhere, and the unfortunate soldiers affected may be extrapolating it to everywhere.

It seems an article written for an audience used to Irak war casualty rates.