Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Malthus]

No one claimed it would be an easy operation

Issue for Ukraine will always be their resource disadvantage, and retaking captured land is a lot harder than defending. From what little we know through the fog of war it seems like the Ukrainians are doing this in the smartest way possible, focusing on logistical strikes that actively make it harder for the Russians to continue holding these areas and undermining advantages they have from being on the defense here.

I will say one really sad thought I have about this war is if the West and Ukraine had taken the threat of a Russian invasion more seriously post-Crimea, and the country had been able to pursue the sort of military reforms and improvements we've seen in the last 6 months, starting back in 2015, it is very likely Russia would not have been able to take much if any Ukrainian territory at all by 2022 due to simply being a less effective military.

Ukraine did take the threat seriously - it started military reforms shortly after Crimea. Without them, Ukraine would have been toast.

I am told those reforms actually matter far more than the military equipment.

In short, Ukraine inherited the same ex-Soviet military system as Russia. Ukraine realized that if it kept this system, Russia would always beat them. So they deliberately attempted to change it, for a more westernized system - most notably, one relying much more on creating a professional class of NCOs (with considerable Western help).

[Sheilbh]

Short video of citizens of recently liberated torn of Balakliya greeting Ukrainian soldiers.

https://twitter.com/avalaina/status/1567957011559743488

I've seen a few of these and them putting the flag up and find it very moving and just great to see.

You can always tell when Russia's having a bad time of it because the subtitles on the Downfall videos get updated.

[grumbler]

Sure, but that death ratio is unsettling.

That death ratio was an anecdote from a low-ranking guy who couldn't possibly know the ratio outside his own company or battalion, where it may indeed have been that bad or may not).  His casual comment tells us nothing about the big picture.

[jimmy olsen]

If the Ukrainians capture Kupiansk, the Russian at Izyum are doomed
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1568025426924118019

Ukrainian forces are welcomed by locals in recaptured Borivs'ke, Kharkiv Oblast. Confirms that Ukrainian mechanized forces have made solid gains, and are at maximum 12 miles (19km) from the key city of Kupiansk.

[Barrister]

Reports that a Russian officer captured yesterday turned out to be Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi.  He had changed into a lieutenant's uniform in an attempt to escape.

Highest ranking Russian officer captured since WWII.

[Valmy]

How does a general get captured in this era? I figured with modern tech the generals would be coordinating things way behind the front. But maybe I am wrong and there is some practical utility to having them physically present in the warzone, I don't know.

Either way that's great news.

[Tonitrus]

Might not be him.  I cannot find any solid sourcing so far.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

How does a general get captured in this era? I figured with modern tech the generals would be coordinating things way behind the front. But maybe I am wrong and there is some practical utility to having them physically present in the warzone, I don't know.

Either way that's great news.

Probably suffers from fenestraphobia

[DGuller]

How does a general get captured in this era? I figured with modern tech the generals would be coordinating things way behind the front. But maybe I am wrong and there is some practical utility to having them physically present in the warzone, I don't know.

Either way that's great news.

They probably get captured the same way they get killed, which is something that Russian generals did consistently for a while earlier in the war.

[Admiral Yi]

They probably get captured the same way they get killed, which is something that Russian generals did consistently for a while earlier in the war.

I think differently.  Earlier they god killed because the Ukes got GPS guidance for artillery or missile strikes through smart phone usage.

Capturing is a whole nother kettle o fish.

[The Brain]

Maybe the Ukrainians now have drones with claws for grabbing?

[viper37]

How does a general get captured in this era? I figured with modern tech the generals would be coordinating things way behind the front. But maybe I am wrong and there is some practical utility to having them physically present in the warzone, I don't know.

Either way that's great news.

The Russian generals have to micro-manage their armies from the front, otherwise it becomes problematic.

Their junior officers aren't trained for autonomy or inventiveness.  Whenever a new situation arises, they can not make decisions by themselves like an equivalent officer in another army would, they are simply unable (or unwilling for fear of mistreatment if they fail, maybe) to adapt to changing conditions on the terrain.  That is why so many are getting killed, and now captured during counter-offensive.  Not just because of missile/drone strikes, but because they are very close to the front lines to oversee operations for themselves.  It's the only way the Russian army can make some gains when there is unexpected resistance by Ukrainian forces.

I think, basically, it's like that oversimplified history video about the Punic Wars.  Carthage crucified its generals if they failed while Rome rewarded its generals if they won.  So Carthage's generals were extremely cautious on the field while Rome's were overly aggressive. 

It seems similar with the Russian officers.  Follow the orders and fail or try something, fail and get corporal punishment.  I did heard some translation of Russian soldiers conversations that hinted at extremely low moral too.  Like, talking openly about killing their commanding officer. So, there's that reason too why the general might be there, I suppose the soldiers will be more hesitant to kill a general than a colonel or a major.

Anyhow.  The Russian army is shit and the Generals needs to hold the officers and soldiers hands to have them do something, anything.  It's not about technology, it's 100% a human factor on how the Russian army was developed over they years, and worsened after the cold war, especially under Putin.

[viper37]

Maybe the Ukrainians now have drones with claws for grabbing?

You might be onto something.  Up until recently, the Ukrainians were using Turkish drones, but, now I hear they have the newest US drones.  Might explain some things.

[Legbiter]

Russians are getting their ass handed to them.

[The Larch]

Support for Ukraine, despite high energy prices, remains high in Germany: