Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[DGuller]

Just saw a video of a retired Belorussian VDV (airborne special ops) officer urging his fellow soldiers to disobey orders to go into Ukraine.  Hopefully he will be listened to by the army, and even more hopefully, the army would depose Lukashenka and go Lapland War on Russia. 

Rumors are that Belarus army will enter the war today, which would be a double tragedy if it happens; a victim of subtle Russian aggression would be set upon a victim of a much more naked Russian aggression.

[Syt]

Belarus had a referendum yesterday. Apparently 90% of the voters agreed to extend Lukashenko's term til 2035? Also, they approved rescinding Belarus' status as nuclear free country.

Saw a comment, saying that all those who urge "both sides to stop the fighting" should consider:
- if Russia stops fighting, the war ends
- if Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends


It's also surreal to see my sisters cheer on Zelensky, when "their guy" just recently tried to blackmail him into digging up/fabricating dirt on his political opponent, or defense aid would be withheld. 

[Syt]

Brazil's Bolsonaro mocks Ukraine
In a news conference on Sunday, Brazil's far-right president Jair Bolsonaro mocked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky - saying his counterpart's people had placed their hopes in the hands of a comedian.

Bolsonaro has refused to condemn Russia's invasion and on Sunday said Brazil would stay "neutral" in the conflict, adding that Brazil and Russia are "practically brother nations".

"We will not take sides, we will continue being neutral, and help with whatever is possible," Bolsonaro said. "A big part of Ukraine's population speaks Russian."

He claimed he also held a two hour discussion with Putin on Sunday, but the country's foreign ministry later clarified that he was referring to his visit to Moscow earlier this month.

[Richard Hakluyt]

What a bellend that man is.

Also, perhaps an indication of the US stance if we had the misfortune of Trump being president again.

[The Brain]

These are Russia's best combat formations displaying their skill. If Russia fought NATO they would have to field even worse troops.

These are young, barely trained conscripts for the first wave.

Like I said...

And consider that Putin's ultra-elite-super-macho special forces so far have completely failed in their decapitation mission.

[The Brain]

Brazil's Bolsonaro mocks Ukraine


"We will not take sides, we will continue being neutral, and help with whatever is possible," Bolsonaro said. "A big part of Ukraine's population speaks Russian."

Doesn't a big part of Brazil's population speak Portuguese btw?

[Admiral Yi]

What a bellend that man is.

Also, perhaps an indication of the US stance if we had the misfortune of Trump being president again.

It must eat up Trump to see Bolsinaro still in office doing all the trolling he wants to do himself.

[Jacob]

Apparently Russia's Central Bank raised the borrowing rate from 9.5% to 20%.

Not a sign of massive health, I'd say....

[Richard Hakluyt]

These are Russia's best combat formations displaying their skill. If Russia fought NATO they would have to field even worse troops.

These are young, barely trained conscripts for the first wave.

Like I said...

And consider that Putin's ultra-elite-super-macho special forces so far have completely failed in their decapitation mission.

They might perform better in a different war of course.

Being told off by Ukranian grannies and jovially being offered a tow back to Moscow by a passing Ukranian motorist....morale must be abysmal for this particular war.

[Maladict]

It comes from a fairly unreliable news source, but they claim an Ukrainian sailor tried to scuttle a Russian oligarch's (Alexander Mijeev) yacht yesterday in Mallorca's harbor. 

It was true 

[The Brain]

These are Russia's best combat formations displaying their skill. If Russia fought NATO they would have to field even worse troops.

These are young, barely trained conscripts for the first wave.

Like I said...

And consider that Putin's ultra-elite-super-macho special forces so far have completely failed in their decapitation mission.

They might perform better in a different war of course.

Being told off by Ukranian grannies and jovially being offered a tow back to Moscow by a passing Ukranian motorist....morale must be abysmal for this particular war.

I can see morale being better if they're defending against an invasion of the Motherland. Other than that though... And the basic problem won't go away of an army that treats recruits like garbage, that prioritizes orders over mission, that can't afford decent gear, and that is led by Putin loyalists instead of fighting generals.

[Syt]

My Indian colleague says what videos he saw of Indians being denied refuge were fake/staged and disseminated by pro-Russian circles in India.

[Syt]

And there's Raiffeisen Bank, whose subsidiary, Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) is one of the 13 "system relevant banks" in Russia, with over 130 branches and over 9000 employees. Half their revenue comes from Russia/Ukraine.

Their stock lost 1/3 in value last week, and another 18% this morning. They say they maintain operations in Ukraine as best they can while keeping their employees safe; otherwise they're still analyzing the situation and won't make major comments while things are still developing.

[Josquius]

Also Ukrainians are white Europeans. If this was happening somewhere like Kazakhstan, there would be a lot less interest.

I think this is too vast an oversimplification. "White Europeans" doesn't count for that much. Just look at the discourse around immigration in the UK, for example.

I agree that Kazakhstan would've gotten a different response, but "White European" is at best a minor contributor to that. I think the stakes - as defined in that Russian "now that we've won" piece shared by Sheilbh upthread - is much more significant.

Now that we've won piece?
I can't find it though sounds interesting.

[Syt]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60551140

Ukraine invasion: Would Putin press the nuclear button?

By Steve Rosenberg
BBC News, Moscow

Let me begin with an admission. So many times, I've thought: "Putin would never do this." Then he goes and does it.

"He'd never annex Crimea, surely?" He did.

"He'd never start a war in the Donbas." He did.

"He'd never launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine." He has.

I've concluded that the phrase "would never do" doesn't apply to Vladimir Putin.

And that raises an uncomfortable question:

"He'd never press the nuclear button first. Would he?"

It's not a theoretical question. Russia's leader has just put his country's nuclear forces on "special" alert, complaining of "aggressive statements" over Ukraine by Nato leaders.

Listen closely to what President Putin has been saying. Last Thursday when he announced on TV his "special military operation" (in reality, a full-scale invasion of Ukraine), he delivered a chilling warning:

"To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside - if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history."

"Putin's words sound like a direct threat of nuclear war," believes Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dmitry Muratov, chief editor of the Novaya Gazeta newspaper.

"In that TV address, Putin wasn't acting like the master of the Kremlin, but the master of the planet; in the same way the owner of a flash car shows off by twirling his keyring round his finger, Putin was twirling the nuclear button. He's said many times: if there is no Russia, why do we need the planet? No one paid any attention. But this is a threat that if Russia isn't treated as he wants, then everything will be destroyed."

In a 2018 documentary, President Putin commented that "...if someone decides to annihilate Russia, we have the legal right to respond. Yes, it will be a catastrophe for humanity and for the world. But I'm a citizen of Russia and its head of state. Why do we need a world without Russia in it?"

Fast forward to 2022. Putin has launched a full-scale war against Ukraine, but the Ukrainian armed forces are putting up stiff resistance; Western nations have - to the Kremlin's surprise - united to impose potentially crippling economic and financial sanctions against Moscow. The very existence of the Putin system may have been put in doubt.

"Putin's in a tight spot," believes Moscow-based defence analyst Pavel Felgenhauer. "He doesn't have many options left, once the West freezes the assets of the Russian Central bank and Russia's financial system actually implodes. That will make the system unworkable.

"One option for him is to cut gas supplies to Europe, hoping that will make the Europeans climb down. Another option is to explode a nuclear weapon somewhere over the North Sea between Britain and Denmark and see what happens."

If Vladimir Putin did choose a nuclear option, would anyone in his close circle try to dissuade him? Or stop him?

"Russia's political elites are never with the people," says Nobel laureate Dmitry Muratov. "They always take the side of the ruler."

And in Vladimir Putin's Russia the ruler is all-powerful. This is a country with few checks and balances; it's the Kremlin that calls the shots.

"No one is ready to stand up to Putin," says Pavel Felgenhauer. "We're in a dangerous spot."

The war in Ukraine is Vladimir Putin's war. If the Kremlin leader achieves his military aims, Ukraine's future as a sovereign nation will be in doubt. If he is perceived to be failing and suffers heavy casualties, the fear is that could prompt the Kremlin to adopt more desperate measures.

Especially if "would never do" no longer applies.

The words "why do we need a world, without Russia" were echoed by an evening host on Russian TV yesterday (he's known for his jingoistic rhetoric and in recent years spewed fantasies of turning Russia's enemies into radioactive ash).