Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

So it looks like Ukraine's "okay we're not going to join NATO" is because they'd like to join an alliance that's more willing to fight Russia over Ukraine than NATO is right now.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3432515-presidents-office-ukraine-wants-to-end-war-by-forming-coalition-able-to-stop-russia-in-future.html

[The Minsky Moment]

The US military is pretty good at coming up with pretty decent systems designed to be operated by average intelligence human beings.

Finally, a benign explanation for Donald Trump's 4F draft status.

[Josquius]

So it looks like Ukraine's "okay we're not going to join NATO" is because they'd like to join an alliance that's more willing to fight Russia over Ukraine than NATO is right now.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3432515-presidents-office-ukraine-wants-to-end-war-by-forming-coalition-able-to-stop-russia-in-future.html

Great trolling all round.

[FunkMonk]

So it looks like Ukraine's "okay we're not going to join NATO" is because they'd like to join an alliance that's more willing to fight Russia over Ukraine than NATO is right now.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3432515-presidents-office-ukraine-wants-to-end-war-by-forming-coalition-able-to-stop-russia-in-future.html

Reminds me of the joke early in the war, with the daily videos showing average Ukrainians being absolute badasses: Ukraine shouldn't want to join NATO. NATO should want to join Ukraine.

[mongers]

I don't know shit about military hardware, but I thought Exocets were shot from aircraft no? Can you just stick it onto a MiG and fly it out to the Black Sea?

I'm guesstimating not. I wonder if Odessa has coastal batteries.

Different versions could be employed from air/ship/land.

IIRC the Argentian jury-rigged some to fire off a flat bed trailer during the Falklands War, those might have been the SSM38 versions(?) or just adapted one.

[Jacob]

It looks like the shift in reporting is inward facing too: https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1504551175747784704?t=UqS_l63WLMbkQEm6klvuNQ&s=19

Looks like it's neutrality (neither anti- nor pro- Russian) + depiction of reality on the ground, more or less (engendering sympathy for Ukraine) + explanations of how it's the West's fault (because of course)

[KRonn]

Heh, a thought occurred to me, which has probably occurred to most of you. That is that the Russians invaded in late February probably to take advantage of the frozen ground so their tanks and vehicles could maneuver. Likely never expecting the war would go on until the Spring thaws. But now seems they are facing one nemesis that has plagued armies invading Russia in the past -- General Mudd. On top of the determined Ukrainian opposition.

[Tamas]

Heh, a thought occurred to me, which has probably occurred to most of you. That is that the Russians invaded in late February probably to take advantage of the frozen ground so their tanks and vehicles could maneuver. Likely never expecting the war would go on until the Spring thaws. But now seems they are facing one nemesis that has plagued armies invading Russia in the past -- General Mudd. On top of the determined Ukrainian opposition.

Indeed, that's possibly/probably one factor screwing with them.

[Legbiter]

Heh, a thought occurred to me, which which is probably occurred to most of you. That is that the Russians invaded in late February probably to take advantage of the frozen ground so their tanks and vehicles could maneuver. Likely never expecting the war would go on until the Spring thaws. But now seems they are facing one nemesis that has plagued armies invading Russia in the past -- General Mudd. On top of the determined Ukrainian opposition.

Yeah the Russians invaded little Russia in winter and Russian soldiers are now busy slaughtering Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine and levelling their cities to save them from being genocided by Nazis...  

[Jacob]

Kamil Galeev has another interesting thread, this time on how to sabotage the Russian war effort: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504585616834457619

The main takeaways are:

1) The classic Russian "throw bodies at the problem" solution is much less viable to Putin due to demographics.

2) The Russian army is very low morale, consisting of poor conscripts who've either been pressed into service or who have no better options available.

3) Offer Russian soldiers a way out (a bit of money and a ticket to a warm country) and you'll start seeing notable desertion and morale impact

4) Offer Russian soldiers reasonable amounts of hard currency for sabotaging their equipment and providing evidence, and you will a) undermine the army's materal effectiveness significantly (because US$2,000 is worth more than their loyalty to the state and army), and b) it'll increase paranoia in mistrust within the ranks.

... personally I like the idea, but I wonder about the practicalities of actually implementing it.

[grumbler]

FWIW Sweden took delivery of the physical parts of Patriot systems in early fall last year, and they were operational in December. Granted Swedes had been involved earlier in the process, but I'd be surprised if you can't get units up and running in a few months in wartime.

Among the Western volunteers there may also be people with experience of various NATO weapon systems. This is a resource.

The issue isn't training operators, it is (1) maintaining the equipment  and (2) integrating the equipment into your doctrine and command system.  I am sure the Swedes have a lot of Raytheon tech reps with their Patriot batteries right now.  That might not be possible in Ukraine.

[Sheilbh]

Among the Western volunteers there may also be people with experience of various NATO weapon systems. This is a resource.

I hadn't thought of that. The UK's planning to provide lots more NLAWs but also Starstreak anti-air (I have no idea what any of this means) with support/training for Ukrainians to use it. But in reality there's reportedly thousands of British volunteers in Ukraine now - I imagine a significant proportion actually have experience using that system.

Incidentally Zelensky addressed the Bundestag today - I've seen a bit of criticism including from Germans that the Bundestag did a big standing ovation but then went into normal business. I think it's because rather incongruosly the first order of business was for the speaker to wish several parliamentarians a happy birthday Zelensky was also more critical in this speech than he's been in other ones he's given to the European, UK, Canadian parliaments and Congress.

But the thing that strikes me - just to go to GF's point - is he makes really obvious references but they are all aimed at those lawmakers and I think perfectly pitched to get a response. So in Germany he referenced a new wall being laid in Europe (and said Nordstream II/fossil fuels were the cement) and called on Germany to help tear down that wall - he also said what's the worth of historical responsibility if you don't, 80 years later, help a country trying to stop the same thing happening to them again. Which is incredibly powerful stuff.

Then for the US he referenced Martin Luther King, he talked about having a dream of peaceful skies above Ukraine etc. For the UK it was lots of defiance - he said Ukraine was being asked Shakespeare's question "to be or not to be? [...] the answer is definitively - yes, to be" and then got in some Churchill: "we will fight in the forests, in the fields, on the shores and in the streets."

None of this subtle - but he is incredibly effective. It's really admirable and I've not seen anything like it before from not just a world leader but from any politician.

Incidentally on to be or not to be - there's a good and very famous restaurant in Sarajevo that was called To Be or Not To Be. They never closed and were open throughout the siege. Afterwards they just crossed out "Not" so they're now "To Be To Be".

[DGuller]

This is not directly war-related, but it's VDV video related, so I may as well ask it here.  What's the point of training soldiers to do stupid tricks? 

I understand why VDV may want to train their recruits on navigating playground mazes, given how important neutralizing playgrounds is for Russian war strategy, but why train them to do those goose stepping marches with their heads turned?  Or teach them to do those weird dances with aggressive hand chopping gestures and seductive grunts?  Surely you're not going to do a complete backflip in the air before shooting someone during an actual war. 

Wouldn't the time spent to train those tricks be better spent on teaching how to kill people more efficiently?  Or is there some method to the apparent madness?

[Sheilbh]

Totally separate - this piece on a woman who buried both her sons in the space of six days is worth your time:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/christopherm51/ukraine-brothers-killed-same-family

And the footage of the village turning out for the second funeral is very moving:
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1504138172233654275?s=20&t=7Fn6ysNUjzI6GaGjhwoggA

[The Larch]

None of this subtle - but he is incredibly effective. It's really admirable and I've not seen anything like it before from not just a world leader but from any politician.

I guess it's the advantage of having an actual actor as your country's leader doing these kind of speeches. Each one is a bit of a performance, and he's delivering.