Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Admiral Yi]

On the other hand state of the art air defense (aside from the Stingers) is not something I have seen in the lists of gear handed over to Ukraine.

[Barrister]

On the other hand state of the art air defense (aside from the Stingers) is not something I have seen in the lists of gear handed over to Ukraine.

I believe they have:

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/07/01/us-to-send-ukraine-advanced-nasams-air-defense-weapons-in-820-million-package/

Not that the Ukrainians wouldn't like more, and in particular more anti-missile systems like Patriot or Iron Dome.

[Solmyr]

Not that this suprises anyone, but this displays the rot in (one tiny part) of the system in full splendour:

They allegedly called the son of Putin's press-secretary Dmitry Peskov, Nikolay, and asked him why he did not respond to the military commissariat summons 😂

Can't prove it's him but the tone of voice is really similar.

Video: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1572608312298053632

It was him, Peskov commented on it claiming that they "cut out parts of the conversation" (it was broadcasted live).

[Berkut]

He invaded Ukraine...

Most people here thought it would take a couple of weeks at most to overrun the country.

It was stupid even if it went how he planned it.

[Berkut]

I couldn't speak with much expertise on the Russian ground game...but I would've expected much more from their air forces.  Either their modern planes are shit (I never had much hope for the Su-24s, but Su-34s should have been doing better)...or we all should be taking hefty notes at the danger and threats posed on imposing air superiority against even a moderately sophisticated modern air defense system. 

I am not an expert, but I am an interested amateur.

*Before* the war I predicted that the Russian Army would suck, and their Air Force as well. For primarily three reasons, two obvious, one less so:

1. They don't spend enough money on their military to support the size that they have, so you know they don't have the training, logistics, and support needed for more then their elite units. Turns out even those didn't get much support.
2. Their entire structure around their armed forces professionalism is obviously not workable. This was a problem way back in WW2 where their NCO corps was nowhere nearly as competent, trained, and independent as what was seen in the German and Allied armies. Their force structure could make up for that in a mass conflict war, but modern war is radically more technical and relies on much more small unit tactics and competence.
3. Their social structure cannot possibly result in a competent military. When we look at what we value in the West around military capability, in so many ways they are the exact opposite. One of us is wrong, and I was confident it wasn't us.

They were always a paper tiger. I was surprised that they were as bad as they actually were, I thought they would be bad, but Ukraine would be bad as well, and 1/10th the size. Turns out Ukraine was not that bad, and 1/10th the size is fine as long as you are willing to mobilize, they are not, and modern combat is about quality, and quantity, these days, doesn't have much of a quality of its own anymore.

[HVC]

I thought Russias army would suck, but they'd make due on human waves. Guess they sucked more then I thought... or used insufficient Canon fodder.

[OttoVonBismarck]

He invaded Ukraine...

Most people here thought it would take a couple of weeks at most to overrun the country.

This was because of a massive over-estimation of the quality of the Russian military.

[Berkut]

I couldn't speak with much expertise on the Russian ground game...but I would've expected much more from their air forces.  Either their modern planes are shit (I never had much hope for the Su-24s, but Su-34s should have been doing better)...or we all should be taking hefty notes at the danger and threats posed on imposing air superiority against even a moderately sophisticated modern air defense system. 

I assume that Russian tech like radars, ECM, combat information systems etc, is at least one tier below Western tech. Fighting a country with at least some modern air defense, and which is fed data from the almighty US surveillance systems, is probably a scary prospect.

IIRC there was an article early in the war that pointed to Russian combat pilots getting maybe half the number of flying hours per (peace) year as Western pilots, having access to worse simulators, and flying planes with old-skool user interfaces, all of which make their effective quality significantly lower than Western ones.

Add to all this the general Russian dysfunctional organizational culture, widespread corruption etc, and you have an air force that sucks ass.

There was a great analysis on Quora of just how bad and outdate the Moskva's air defence systems were.

Like, it was built in the 80s. That isn't so bad, but in the intervening 40 hours the ship only received 1 refit, and that was a very modest refit due to budget constraints. So not only is it really old radars from a capability standpoint, it is also really old from a wear and tear standpoint. 

The Russian military tech is basically completely shit. it isn't just outdated technology, it is worn out tech that has been maintained, much less updated.

[viper37]

I couldn't speak with much expertise on the Russian ground game...but I would've expected much more from their air forces.  Either their modern planes are shit (I never had much hope for the Su-24s, but Su-34s should have been doing better)...or we all should be taking hefty notes at the danger and threats posed on imposing air superiority against even a moderately sophisticated modern air defense system. 

They may be decent aircraft, but they don't have a ton of them in working order.  Wikipedia reports 140 units built + 7 for testing purpose.

Even if they are all used by Russia and none have been sold, that's not a ton of aircraft to commit to an invasion, since you do need some elsewhere in the territory.

And if they fly low to shoot at their targets, they are at risk of aa like any other aircraft.

[Barrister]

They were always a paper tiger. I was surprised that they were as bad as they actually were, I thought they would be bad, but Ukraine would be bad as well, and 1/10th the size. Turns out Ukraine was not that bad, and 1/10th the size is fine as long as you are willing to mobilize, they are not, and modern combat is about quality, and quantity, these days, doesn't have much of a quality of its own anymore.

Back in February, I thought the Russians would be bad, but I never expected them to be THIS bad.  I expected the Ukrainians to be motivated and somewhat western-trained, and they have been.

I thought the Russians would overwhelm with numbers but the Ukrainians could fight them to some kind of stalemate leading to Russians seizing half the country and leaving a rump Ukrainian state in the west.  But then again I never thought Putin's war aims would seriously be to seize the entire country.

But I absolutely never thought there was a chance the Ukrainians could win, and maybe retake all the territory seized in 2014.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think Putin's meta aims were never that concerned with square acreage seized, but more replacing the Ukrainian regime with what he had before Maidan, which was a pliable puppet controlling Kyiv. Russia has a lot of land, and while we've discussed some of the strategic and economic benefits to the land they have seized, none of it is meaningful enough versus the costs. Without getting Ukraine back as a puppet the war is hard to justify on any sort of cost/benefit analysis.

And to be honest, much of the real practical strategic benefit to controlling Ukrainian land was already achieved before Maidan in the form of Russia's quasi-permanent lease of the naval facilities at Sevastopol in Crimea, that was the biggest strategic importance for Russia in Ukraine, and was not ever at risk. It was even more not at risk when Putin seized and annexed Crimea. Arguably it is now more at risk than it has been at any point in our lifetimes.

[Barrister]

I think Putin's meta aims were never that concerned with square acreage seized, but more replacing the Ukrainian regime with what he had before Maidan, which was a pliable puppet controlling Kyiv. Russia has a lot of land, and while we've discussed some of the strategic and economic benefits to the land they have seized, none of it is meaningful enough versus the costs. Without getting Ukraine back as a puppet the war is hard to justify on any sort of cost/benefit analysis.

I thought that at first as well.  That putin wanted to replace Zelenskyy if he could, butat the very least delegitimize the Ukrainian government.  Ukraine was never a military or economic threat, but it was a political threat - it was a large largely-Russian speaking country with a free and democratic system of government.  It stood as an example to Russians that authoritarianism was not the only way.

But then the war happened.  And we've had many speeches from Putin.  And it seems clear he DOES want land.  He wants to go down in history as the leader who restored the Russian empire, who reclaimed the "historic Russian lands".  And he doesn't care what it costs, in either lives or rubles. 

[Razgovory]

One thing I note from Putin's speech is that he still can't come to grips with the fact that Ukrainians are beating Russians.  He blames the West and claims that foreign generals are commanding the armies of Ukraine.  Our countries provide weapons, intel, and advice but it is the Ukrainians who war wining this war.  It must really rankle the Russians to have an "inferior" people kick their asses.

[Legbiter]

I mean, what's the alternative? Putin to admit defeat? Not an option.

Yeah he'll shove every man, woman and child in Russia into the meatgrinder if it helps him stay in power. The volunteer forces that did sign up in May for the cash bonuses only got one week of training before being sent to the front though. Now it's late September and well over half of those are KIA, WIA or have deserted. Volkssturm like this upcoming batch will just be pure "cannon meat" if not properly trained.

[Barrister]

I mean, what's the alternative? Putin to admit defeat? Not an option.

Yeah he'll shove every man, woman and child in Russia into the meatgrinder if it helps him stay in power. The volunteer forces that did sign up in May for the cash bonuses only got one week of training before being sent to the front though. Now it's late September and well over half of those are KIA, WIA or have deserted. Volkssturm like this upcoming batch will just be pure "cannon meat" if not properly trained.

That's apparently what's happened with the prisoners they've sent: week's training, then killed or deserted en masse.