Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Valmy]

I cannot imagine Putin would be that stupid.

He invaded Ukraine...

That's true. That was so stupid I couldn't believe he would do that until he did. So maybe he is getting to that level of self-delusion and being out of touch.

[Admiral Yi]

He invaded Ukraine...

Most people here thought it would take a couple of weeks at most to overrun the country.

[DGuller]

I'm starting to wonder how high on their own supply Russian decision-makers are.  Maybe originally all this projection nonsense was a cynical propaganda trick, but just like with gas warfare, eventually your weapon blows back into your direction.

[HVC]

I cannot imagine Putin would be that stupid.

He invaded Ukraine...

To be fair he did a lot of stuff before and got away with it before, including invading  Ukraine.

*edit* old habits.

[Jacob]

I think with guys like Putin (and Trump actually, and many other folks) it's less that they're these incredible geniuses that out manoeuvre everybody through amazing ability. It's more like they have one or two methods they're really good at (like, 1 in 100 good or maybe 1 in 10,000 good), and another handful of well worn tricks in their repertoire. They have a couple of early successes and get some momentum, and then they're a bit lucky in that the situations they encounter can be typically resolved by their favourite method + the momentum they've accumulated.

But once they run into a situation where their instinctual MO falls short or their momentum stalls, they flail about like the average punter would.

[Valmy]

He invaded Ukraine...

Most people here thought it would take a couple of weeks at most to overrun the country.

Yeah well they believed the Russian strength on paper. The Russian leadership should have known better.

[PDH]

Yeah well they believed the Russian strength on paper. The Russian leadership should have known better.

I think the leadership has been drinking that kool-aid for a long time - they believed their own wishful lies, and then for the sake of propaganda they kicked that up another 20% "for show."  In the end, they have a pile of shit that they lied was good building stone that they then told everyone was pure gold.  In the end it starts cycling, especially when the system is based on lies, corruption, and fear.

[Tonitrus]

I couldn't speak with much expertise on the Russian ground game...but I would've expected much more from their air forces.  Either their modern planes are shit (I never had much hope for the Su-24s, but Su-34s should have been doing better)...or we all should be taking hefty notes at the danger and threats posed on imposing air superiority against even a moderately sophisticated modern air defense system. 

[Jacob]

Not that this suprises anyone, but this displays the rot in (one tiny part) of the system in full splendour:

They allegedly called the son of Putin's press-secretary Dmitry Peskov, Nikolay, and asked him why he did not respond to the military commissariat summons 😂

Can't prove it's him but the tone of voice is really similar.

Video: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1572608312298053632

[Crazy_Ivan80]

He invaded Ukraine...

Most people here thought it would take a couple of weeks at most to overrun the country.

true, but that just means we were also stupid for forgetting the lessons of the past: a people that has the willpower is capable of incredible feats, including keeping their own against (seemingly) overwhelming odds

after all: the British probably thought the American colonists would also cave quickly.

[Sheilbh]

I think with guys like Putin (and Trump actually, and many other folks) it's less that they're these incredible geniuses that out manoeuvre everybody through amazing ability. It's more like they have one or two methods they're really good at (like, 1 in 100 good or maybe 1 in 10,000 good), and another handful of well worn tricks in their repertoire. They have a couple of early successes and get some momentum, and then they're a bit lucky in that the situations they encounter can be typically resolved by their favourite method + the momentum they've accumulated.

But once they run into a situation where their instinctual MO falls short or their momentum stalls, they flail about like the average punter would.

I wonder if that's true of all politicians. The skills and techniques they need to thrive in one era or dealing with a particular situation makes them utterly unsuited to others and it's really difficult to change yourself.

I think with Putin in particular there is also context with Ukraine (and Georgia) of living in a "rules based liberal order". There is a risk, I think, in periods of peace and prosperity that you think the rules are why there's order. When I think they are really a way of structuring it. Which means that if you just operate by using power then you can probably get away with a fair bit before there's a response - it took 10-15 years in this case.

But if that let him get away with it for 10-15 years, then the other side is that at a certain point liberal societies do respond. They're very able to ideologically rally to a cause (as we've seen most incredibly in Ukraine both in the cohesion since 2014 and the response to this invasion) and, despite the authoritarian rhetoric/misapprehension about them not being able to bear any pain, they're pretty good at both taking pain and mobilising resources because they're based on popular consent.

I don't know if that's a skill from him though I think he's definitely been high on his own supply about Ukraine not being a real nation, there being no coherence to their society or legitimacy to their state so it would all collapse like a house of cards - perhaps with some justification because of 2014 and the situation before then. But I think that invasion caused a profound shift.

Separately, impressive live reporting by Sky's Moscow correspondent:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1572626336321077248?s=20&t=sp6sDsaSsgh_3I9prrS9JA

[Barrister]

There were scattered protests at the start of the Ukraine war as well.  I doubt much will come of it.  I read Kamil Galeev's thread about the 1917 revolution being started by Russian conscripts in the capital - I doubt something similar will happen as well.

That being said I seriously doubt Putin will be able to raise anywhere near 300,000 soldiers.  From what I understand each district will set it's own targets (directed of course by the Kremlin), so naturally they'll mostly recruit from the east and minority districts, while making sure not to bother the civilians in Moscow.

[Barrister]

Yet another prominent Russian has fallen to his death.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-ally-dies-falling-down-stairs-day-russia-mobilization-1744944

[HVC]

Is he getting rid of allies he's afraid of turning disloyal, or are they offing his allies?

[The Brain]

I couldn't speak with much expertise on the Russian ground game...but I would've expected much more from their air forces.  Either their modern planes are shit (I never had much hope for the Su-24s, but Su-34s should have been doing better)...or we all should be taking hefty notes at the danger and threats posed on imposing air superiority against even a moderately sophisticated modern air defense system. 

I assume that Russian tech like radars, ECM, combat information systems etc, is at least one tier below Western tech. Fighting a country with at least some modern air defense, and which is fed data from the almighty US surveillance systems, is probably a scary prospect.

IIRC there was an article early in the war that pointed to Russian combat pilots getting maybe half the number of flying hours per (peace) year as Western pilots, having access to worse simulators, and flying planes with old-skool user interfaces, all of which make their effective quality significantly lower than Western ones.

Add to all this the general Russian dysfunctional organizational culture, widespread corruption etc, and you have an air force that sucks ass.