Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[FunkMonk]

I could see Putin planning to build Xinjiang-style "internment" camps that would have been used to "de-Nazify" millions of Ukrainians, thereby turning them into good Russians.

[Barrister]

There's a real sensitivity in Canada over the word genocide as it's been alleged that Canada committed genocide to our indigenous peoples.

There's about three factors at play - first of all it was the explicit policy of the government of Canada for decades to assimilate indigenous people into white society, and to end their separate way of life.  This points fairly heavily towards genocide.

Second, there's been a long indifference to indigenous people, leading them to suffer from much higher mortality rates than the rest of the population (and that difference was shocking in the early 20th century, though it's significantly gone down).

Third though - it was never ever government policy to deliberately kill indigenous people.

So in Canada, I think you have agreement on calling it "cultural genocide", with some still insisting it's "genocide" without qualifications.

So you can see the connection here.  It is Russian policy to end Ukrainian culture and identity.  The Russians however are deliberately killing Ukrainian civilians as part of their policy to try and end Ukrainian identity.  But that policy doesn't seem to go so far as to want to exterminate every last person who identifies as Ukrainian.  Is that enough to save them from calling it genocide?

[Malthus]

There's a real sensitivity in Canada over the word genocide as it's been alleged that Canada committed genocide to our indigenous peoples.

There's about three factors at play - first of all it was the explicit policy of the government of Canada for decades to assimilate indigenous people into white society, and to end their separate way of life.  This points fairly heavily towards genocide.

Second, there's been a long indifference to indigenous people, leading them to suffer from much higher mortality rates than the rest of the population (and that difference was shocking in the early 20th century, though it's significantly gone down).

Third though - it was never ever government policy to deliberately kill indigenous people.

So in Canada, I think you have agreement on calling it "cultural genocide", with some still insisting it's "genocide" without qualifications.

So you can see the connection here.  It is Russian policy to end Ukrainian culture and identity.  The Russians however are deliberately killing Ukrainian civilians as part of their policy to try and end Ukrainian identity.  But that policy doesn't seem to go so far as to want to exterminate every last person who identifies as Ukrainian.  Is that enough to save them from calling it genocide?

I'd say the Russians are committing war crimes in an effort to destroy Ukraine as a nation, and Ukrainians as an ethnic-nationality. Which is plenty bad.

The problem with having an expansive definition of genocide is that it lowers the bar, allowing an opening for whataboutism of the most egregious variety.

If the Canadian residential schools were "genocide", unqualified, then it follows that Canada was committing "genocide" until quite recently (and I've seen arguments it is still doing it, with its reservation system). Nations like Russia and China simply note, if Canada was or is doing it, (a) it can't be that bad to do it (the "everyone does it" idea) and (b) Canada had no moral authority to complain or criticize if Russia and China does it, as well (whataboutism).

There is some value in retaining an extreme term for truly extreme situations. A literal death camp in which to incinerate everyone in the "disfavoured" group is qualitatively different from an attempt to deny a people their ethno-national identity - which doesn't make the latter a good thing to do, of course.

[Jacob]

Worthwhile thread on atrocity & violence by Military Historian Wayne Lee: https://twitter.com/MilHist_Lee/status/1511167424174997512

I think it provides a good framework for "grading" violence against civilians, as it were, relevant to our current conversation.

[Malthus]

Worthwhile thread on atrocity & violence by Military Historian Wayne Lee: https://twitter.com/MilHist_Lee/status/1511167424174997512

I think it provides a good framework for "grading" violence against civilians, as it were, relevant to our current conversation.

I like this analysis. I tend to agree, what we are seeing is what he termed number 2 on a scale of 1-4, with 1 being the worst.  "Policy of terror" rather than "genocidal".

[ulmont]

My goodness, this must be the mother of all Freudian slips - by the Russian ambassador to the UN just now 👇

"The corpses in Boutcha that didn't exist before the Russian troops arrived ... er, er, left, sorry - before they left ...'

https://twitter.com/alextaylornews/status/1511205766576971781?s=21&t=FVZMiRQK541bwQDpsRXWJg&fbclid=IwAR12lrqcMYmwKgQaixhRb7nSlYzpTqgSrTEv-oz1hqZ6Jw95YDQRNMEIMT8

[The Larch]

Well, in his address to the Spanish parliament (right after he addressed the UN, he's working diplomacy overtime)  Zelensky name-checked several big Spanish companies still working in Russia, they probably loved that. 

IIRC Porcelanosa did some work in the Kremlin, even.

My heart swells with patriotic pride knowing that Putin and his lackeys take their dumps in the finest ceramic that Villarreal can produce. 

I had to look up what the other two ones he named did. One is apparently a world leader in explosives (I had no idea we had companies like that over here), and the other one seems odd, as it seems to be a business association rather than a company.

He also compared Bucha to Gernika.

It's also an apt comparison because back then Francoist forces claimed that it was also something done by the Republican side to itself (some of the wilder claims blamed Asturian communist miners), rather than the German bombing. It was thanks to a British journalist that got to properly document the attack and publish it abroad that the truth could be known.

And it also seems to have provoked our home grown ultras to go ballistic, with whattaboutistic references to Paracuellos and Herrmann Tersch labelling the Gernika painting as "War propaganda" and "Soviet iconography".

Btw, disheartening that the institutional declaration was blocked this time by the CUP, instead of by VOX, which would have to show a clear position. Do you think they're in the take by the Kremlin or are they as stupid as to do it pro bono?

[Jacob]

If you want a somewhat optimistic read / set of predictions on operations in Southern Ukraine, this is a decent thread: https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1511108357712719872

Another quick thread by the same author summarizing key elements of early Ukrainian success: https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1510745445940842500

[viper37]

but a stated goal to destroy a culture would absolutely fall under genocide as many international bodies hold it.

A cultural genocide it is called, then.  And that imho, has been overused in the past, so I remain hesitant to use it.

[Jacob]

One thing I'm very curious about is how much of this information makes it to Stavka and the political leadership in Kremlin.

Do they know the many different reasons that worked against them and the way Ukraine is exploiting Russian weaknesses? Or is that intel gradually eroded by people covering their own asses so that ultimately Putin and Shoigu and whoever don't know the things that are freely available on the internet?

[Admiral Yi]

Just watched some Bucha footage.  Very very war crimey.

[Jacob]

Article on Aerorozvidka. Pretty cool.

An elite Ukrainian drone unit on quad bikes ambushed Russian forces, helping to defeat Putin's plan to capture Kyiv, report says
Alia Shoaib Apr 3, 2022, 5:40 AM

Night ambushes carried out by a team of Ukrainian special forces and drone operators on quad bikes have helped turn the tide of the Russian invasion, The Guardian reported.

Aerorozvidka is a specialist air-reconnaissance unit within the Ukrainian army, which has claimed to have destroyed dozens of Russian "priority targets," including tanks and command trucks.

The unit's commander, Lt Col Yaroslav Honchar, told The Guardian about an ambush near the Ukrainian town of Ivankiv, which helped stop a 40-mile mechanized Russian column heading to attack the capital Kyiv.

Equipped with night-vision goggles, sniper rifles, and remotely detonated mines and drones, the team of about 30 Ukrainian soldiers approached Russian forces by riding on quad bikes through forests under cover of night.

Some of the drones used by the unit were equipped with thermal imaging cameras, and others were capable of dropping small 1.5kg bombs.

"This one little unit in the night destroyed two or three vehicles at the head of this convoy, and after that, it was stuck. They stayed there two more nights and [destroyed] many vehicles," Honchar told The Guardian.

After the attack, Russian forces re-strategized by breaking the column into smaller units to try and continue towards the capital.

However, the same team mounted an attack on the Russians' supply depot, which stopped them from being able to advance, Honchar told The Guardian.

"It all happened because of the work of 30 people," Honchar told the paper.

Aerorozvidka was formed in 2014 by a group of young university-educated Ukrainians and IT specialists who volunteered to design their machines to help resist Russia's invasion of Crimea and the Donbas region, according to The Guardian.

It was founded by investment banker Volodymyr Kochetkov-Sukach, who was killed in action fighting Russian separatists in Donbas in 2015, the paper said.

The unit integrated into the Ukrainian general staff following the success of its operations in Crimea.

[full article in link]

https://www.businessinsider.com/elite-ukrainian-drone-unit-on-quad-bikes-ambushed-russian-forces-the-guardian-2022-4

[Jacob]

Just watched some Bucha footage.  Very very war crimey.

Yes. It is grim

Normally I try to avoid looking at footage of dead people or people dying, but it feels like the proper thing is to bear witness.

[celedhring]

Btw, disheartening that the institutional declaration was blocked this time by the CUP, instead of by VOX, which would have to show a clear position. Do you think they're in the take by the Kremlin or are they as stupid as to do it pro bono?

CUP? Completely pro bono, they're contrarian like that. It's not that they are peddling any kind of misinformation or retarded pro-Russian leftist nostalgia, they just don't give a fuck about the war. I just went through their official twitter and there isn't a single mention to it over the past two weeks. They are weird.

[The Larch]

Btw, disheartening that the institutional declaration was blocked this time by the CUP, instead of by VOX, which would have to show a clear position. Do you think they're in the take by the Kremlin or are they as stupid as to do it pro bono?

CUP? Completely pro bono, they're contrarian like that. It's not that they are peddling any kind of misinformation or retarded pro-Russian leftist nostalgia, they just don't give a fuck about the war. I just went through their official twitter and there isn't a single mention to it over the past two weeks. They are weird.

But they could simply abstain if they don't care, why block it?