Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

I'd like to offer a possible reading of the situation which I don't think is really being mentioned, thanks to the world fully subscribing to the Putin image Putin himself is selling. Namely, that what we are seeing isn't the planned course of whatever master plan Putin launched with the latest troop concentrations, but rather, his original plan has already failed, and what we are witnessing is him trying to get out of it without losing face.

And that doesn't mean there won't be a war. But what if, he just wanted to scare Ukraine and the West into concessions of some nature (maybe a peace treaty making the Donbass "independent), believing his own propaganda? If this was the plan, it has failed miserably, because instead of getting the weakness he was looking for, he has triggered a newfound solidarity among NATO countries and them toward Ukraine.

So, he may have very well launched the process which WILL make it Ukraine out of Russia's reach due to Ukraine being driven further away from Russia politically, while the Ukrainian military being showered with modern equipment, making a Russian invasion (in the fullness of time) far from the pre-determined success everyone thought it would be.

And, if this is the case, it must be awfully tempting to gamble and launch the offensive despite repeated failures to obtain a CB, because if he stands down now, when will Russia be in a better position again to resolve the Ukraine situation to their benefit? May take decades for the possibility of peaceful overtake via internal Ukrainian politics to become possible again, decades Putin most definitely does not have.

[Jacob]

That's definitely plausible.

[Sheilbh]

I'd like to offer a possible reading of the situation which I don't think is really being mentioned, thanks to the world fully subscribing to the Putin image Putin himself is selling. Namely, that what we are seeing isn't the planned course of whatever master plan Putin launched with the latest troop concentrations, but rather, his original plan has already failed, and what we are witnessing is him trying to get out of it without losing face.

And that doesn't mean there won't be a war. But what if, he just wanted to scare Ukraine and the West into concessions of some nature (maybe a peace treaty making the Donbass "independent), believing his own propaganda? If this was the plan, it has failed miserably, because instead of getting the weakness he was looking for, he has triggered a newfound solidarity among NATO countries and them toward Ukraine.

So, he may have very well launched the process which WILL make it Ukraine out of Russia's reach due to Ukraine being driven further away from Russia politically, while the Ukrainian military being showered with modern equipment, making a Russian invasion (in the fullness of time) far from the pre-determined success everyone thought it would be.

And, if this is the case, it must be awfully tempting to gamble and launch the offensive despite repeated failures to obtain a CB, because if he stands down now, when will Russia be in a better position again to resolve the Ukraine situation to their benefit? May take decades for the possibility of peaceful overtake via internal Ukrainian politics to become possible again, decades Putin most definitely does not have.

Yeah - that makes sense and I think the arming of Ukraine and the risk of Ukraine stabilising in its politics to an effective state is, I thnk, probably the best to "why now?" Because I think there is an element of "if not now, when".

The other side of that is this may be why a long terms presence/threat also serves Putin's aims. Ukraine might get well armed but if its economy is under huge strain due to a semi-permanent threat of invasion and the political situation can't work out an effective state - then that also basically cripples Ukraine.

Interesting explanation on the tables incidentally. Macron did a PCR test in Paris but wouldn't do one in Russia (because it would have taken two hours, disrupted the planned meetings - and it's probably not a great idea to let the President get a medical test in Moscow) - so he got the long social distancing table. Orban did the test, but one of his team tested positive so he also got the social distanced meeting. The Kazakh President did the test and everyone was negative so lots of hugs and small tables

[mongers]

From the BBC newsite:

16:59

US B-52 bombers land in UK


On a day dominated by geopolitics, earlier today four B-52 bombers arrived from the US at RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire.

Jeffrey Lee Harrigian, commander of US Air Forces in Europe, said the long-planned arrivals coincided with an "ever-changing global security environment" and it was critical efforts with "allies and partners are unified."

In a statement, the US military said "the bomber rotations reinforce the US commitment to Nato allies and coalition partners to maintain our collective safety and sovereignty".

[Grey Fox]

A U-2 showed up too.

[Admiral Yi]

A U-2 showed up too.

Really?  I thought we retired the U2.

[PJL]

Did any other pop/rock groups show up as well?

[Syt]

Did any other pop/rock groups show up as well?

Hopefully not the B-52s. 

[Admiral Yi]

  Roam is a masterpiece.

[Sheilbh]

A U-2 showed up too.

Really?  I thought we retired the U2.

They have insights:

[Grey Fox]

You people have no restraints.

[Jacob]

Denmark is starting discussions with the US about American troops and materiel in Denmark (and potentially the Faroe Islands and Greenland as well). Apparently, there hasn't been American forces in Denmark since the 1950s.

The general idea is to allow the US to use Denmark as a staging ground independently of a NATO consensus having been formed.

[Threviel]

The Monroe Doctrine (which included reciprocal US non-involvement in Europe) has largely been moot since the 1860s, when it was last invoked (against the Maximillian "empire" in Mexico).

Isn't there a Roosevelt corollary? What's up with that if it's moot?

[grumbler]

A U-2 showed up too.

Really?  I thought we retired the U2.

Nope.  Briefly redesignated TR-1 but then back to U-2.  Still flying.  The SR-71 was retired, though.

[grumbler]

The Monroe Doctrine (which included reciprocal US non-involvement in Europe) has largely been moot since the 1860s, when it was last invoked (against the Maximillian "empire" in Mexico).

Isn't there a Roosevelt corollary? What's up with that if it's moot?

The "Roosevelt Corollary" was basically just the US deciding that it could play cop in the Western Hemisphere at will.  Nominally it was to deny outside powers any leverage in the Western Hemisphere, it was more a means to protect the business interests of the US elites.

John Kerry formally renounced the Monroe Doctrine in 2013, though Trump as President made noises like he was thinking of reviving it.