Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Zanza]

I know Tamas thinks conspirators but I normally think things like this almost always go back to organisations and bureaucracies

The tweets I saw trying to explain Germany's position regarding its block to armament deliveries refered, very politely, to "strong and long-standing institutional barriers to military adventurism derived from the post-war consensus", or something like that.

I heard that argument as well, but we sell weapons to Mexican drug cartels, Erdogan or the Gulf States. Also we delivered weapons to the Kurds fighting the IS. So the argument is rather unconvincing.

[Zanza]

Germany just announced that we will deliver our own anti-tank and anti-air weapons as well. So it was just what Sheilbh said: Wait long enough for reputational damage, then do the right thing anyway.

[Jacob]

Its quite fascinating that Poland is being particularly great at this considering their usual anti-refugee stance.

I think this is very much a case of Poland seeing themselves in Ukraine's position.

[Tamas]

There were photos of some heavy artillery pieces moving toward Ukraine at Belgorod, now CNN showed a tank column, it does seem like Putin is doubling down: https://twitter.com/i/status/1497610338744864770

[Jacob]

Germany just announced that we will deliver our own anti-tank and anti-air weapons as well. So it was just what Sheilbh said: Wait long enough for reputational damage, then do the right thing anyway.

Still, if you're delivering the equipment. That's the main thing. This is probably not going to be over in a couple of days.

[Sheilbh]

I think this is very much a case of Poland seeing themselves in Ukraine's position.

Yeah and also there's about 2 million Ukrainians already in Poland so I imagine it's quite personal.

I've been wondering with the UK and I'm not sure about this because it might just be traditional British stance, but I wonder if the fairly large Polish, Romanian and Baltic communities in the UK have pushed us further on this. Like the Ukrainians in Poland they're not citizens so they can't vote but it make it lesss of a "quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing".

[The Larch]

Its quite fascinating that Poland is being particularly great at this considering their usual anti-refugee stance.

I think this is very much a case of Poland seeing themselves in Ukraine's position.

And seeing Ukranians as "Us" rather than "Them".

[The Larch]

Just read that the Latvian defence minister has proposed to offer asylum to any Russian soldier willing to surrender, and that EU countries unable or unwilling to donate war material should offer to take defecting Russian soldiers as political refugees instead.

[Jacob]

Just read that the Latvian defence minister has proposed to offer asylum to any Russian soldier willing to surrender, and that EU countries unable or unwilling to donate war material should offer to take defecting Russian soldiers as political refugees instead.

Heh, I like that too.

[Sheilbh]

Pretty amazing clip of BBC correspondent in Dnipro talking to the camera, with everyone in background making Molotov cocktails:
https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1497563829244473347?s=20&t=1fOK7S-bbR-wgag9RA9kFA

[DGuller]

I watched a couple of interviews from Poroshenko, who's also in Kiev, armed along with his comrades, and out in the open.  He really has balls, especially considering that he gave interviews on two successive days from the same location out in the open.  I'm sure the Russians will only need Google Street view and a couple of hours to figure out where he is, in case they want to do something about it.  The cynical part of me wonders whether Poroshenko is rebuilding his own image in case there is a need to replace Zelensky.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting - surprising (I'm not sure?) - move by Aliyev:

Володимир Зеленський
@ZelenskyyUa
10m
According to the results of my conversation with @azpresident, all @SOCARofficial gas stations in Ukraine have been instructed to provide fuel for ambulances and SES free of charge. At night we are waiting for a plane with medications from Azerbaijan.

[Jacob]

A Danish journalist and a Danish photographer have both been wounded in Ukraine after their vehicle was fired on. They were treated in hospital and are recovering.

Just a reminder that journalists do real, important, and dangerous work in these times.

[The Larch]

Interesting - surprising (I'm not sure?) - move by Aliyev:

Володимир Зеленський
@ZelenskyyUa
10m
According to the results of my conversation with @azpresident, all @SOCARofficial gas stations in Ukraine have been instructed to provide fuel for ambulances and SES free of charge. At night we are waiting for a plane with medications from Azerbaijan.

I think he's also offered to mediate, in case intermediaries are needed between Putin and Zelensky.

[DGuller]

Interesting - surprising (I'm not sure?) - move by Aliyev:

Володимир Зеленський
@ZelenskyyUa
10m
According to the results of my conversation with @azpresident, all @SOCARofficial gas stations in Ukraine have been instructed to provide fuel for ambulances and SES free of charge. At night we are waiting for a plane with medications from Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan is sort of like Turkey:  they're trying to maintain friendly relations with Russia, but when shit hits the fan, they tend to wind up on the side opposed to Russia.  At the end of the day, their primary ally is Turkey and the primary enemy of both is Armenia, and Armenia has always been allied with Russia to one degree or another.