Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

I don't fear chaos in Russia, I am hoping for it.  But seeing how apparently the only significant ideological power group is the bloodthirsty far-right, anything short of chaos will likely fail to end the war.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Seems belarus entering the war is taken as a given by more and more people now.
Saw the first headlines today in some of the newspapers
And operator starsky guesstimates that it'll start in about a week.

[alfred russel]

Belarus gives us a non Russian nuclear target if we want to do a limited nuclear retaliation for a Ukraine nuclear attack.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Belarus gives us a non Russian nuclear target if we want to do a limited nuclear retaliation for a Ukraine nuclear attack.

Or a place covert ops can fuck up and get into revolt. Given that lukashenko barely hung on last time enough of hist troops must be capable of being turned. Maybe getting them to join the Belarus army in exile (small as it is)

[Zanza]

This is like Germany firing V2s at Britain. No real military purpose, just terrorism.

At least Germany had the 'excuse' their cities were being obliterated, too.

Germany actually started terror bombing in WW2, e.g. Rotterdam. The Nazis did not need an excuse. If somehow Germany had the resources to bomb Britain during the war, it would have done so regardless.

[Berkut]

Which is kind of telling me that our best semi-realistic hope is chaos and civil war once Putin is removed, because any near-seamless transition of power would be to somebody at least as beholden to the far-right as he is.

Yeah the most likely scenarios of Russia after the war is either North Korea on steroids, Time of Troubles basket case or North China satrapy.

I don't know why people keep saying this over and over again, like it is something that is just obviously true.

I think if you replace Putin....who knows? I think it incredibly unlikely you would get anyone as bad for Russia or the world as Putin, just because its so bad right now, nearly anything else is better.

I really kind of hate this thinking - that a terrible situation is just likely to get worse if it changes.

Chaos has risk for sure, and you don't want chaos to replace something stable. But change to replace something inherently unstable and incredibly dangerous? That should not be feared.

I don't think a realistic assessment equals fear.

I don't think there is anything realistic about that assessment, it is total pessimism. 

[Berkut]

I don't fear chaos in Russia, I am hoping for it.  But seeing how apparently the only significant ideological power group is the bloodthirsty far-right, anything short of chaos will likely fail to end the war.

How do you know that to be true though?

I mean, if you only looked at social media and twitter, you would conclude that the USA is composed of nothing by right wing bigot MAGA asses and social justice warrior identity politics crazies. The reality is that those extremes are not at all representative of most Americans.

How do we know what the existent ideology groups or ideas that exist in Russia? The reality is that we don't, at least I don't, and I don't know anyone who does. The current in power group doesn't allow any actual assessment to happen.

[The Brain]

Putin's is a very typical Russian regime. Authoritarian and aggressive. That Russia would get an untypical regime seems certainly possible, but unlikely. There is little appetite for liberal democracy among Russians.

[alfred russel]

I mean, if you only looked at social media and twitter, you would conclude that the USA is composed of nothing by right wing bigot MAGA asses and social justice warrior identity politics crazies. The reality is that those extremes are not at all representative of most Americans.

I won't comment on the current democratic administration but in 2016 we literally elected the MAGA guy president. Doesn't really seem like a fringe extreme.

[Tamas]

I don't fear chaos in Russia, I am hoping for it.  But seeing how apparently the only significant ideological power group is the bloodthirsty far-right, anything short of chaos will likely fail to end the war.

How do you know that to be true though?

I mean, if you only looked at social media and twitter, you would conclude that the USA is composed of nothing by right wing bigot MAGA asses and social justice warrior identity politics crazies. The reality is that those extremes are not at all representative of most Americans.

How do we know what the existent ideology groups or ideas that exist in Russia? The reality is that we don't, at least I don't, and I don't know anyone who does. The current in power group doesn't allow any actual assessment to happen.

What The Brain wrote. Plus -while I concede we may very well be getting a distorted picture- it seems the only pressure Putin yields to is from the far-right. Anti-war protests and hundreds of thousands of people fleeing the country did not sway him. But calls for escalation and changes from the bloodhounds are met, even if just by token measures like making Kadirov a general, or killing random civilians.

[Tamas]

I mean, if you only looked at social media and twitter, you would conclude that the USA is composed of nothing by right wing bigot MAGA asses and social justice warrior identity politics crazies. The reality is that those extremes are not at all representative of most Americans.

I won't comment on the current democratic administration but in 2016 we literally elected the MAGA guy president. Doesn't really seem like a fringe extreme.

Yeah we may talk about the silent majority and all that but look at the people getting elected.

[The Brain]

The charitable interpretation of the Muscovite psyche is that they are still collectively traumatized by their abusive Mongol stepfather, and believe that all relationships must be like that.

[Josquius]

So, are Russians in other cities any nicer?

[The Brain]

So, are Russians in other cities any nicer?

I try to start a trend of people separating the so called "Russians" of Muscovy from the original Russians of Ukraine. Seems like it's time to do so.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I have very little belief Belarus entering will work out in Russia's favor in any meaningful way. One of the key lessons Putin ought be learning from this conflict is raw numbers don't matter if troop morale, discipline, and strategic cohesion is abysmal. A bunch of unruly Belarusian conscripts who might become a bigger threat to Russia's situation than a benefit, makes little sense at all.