Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[The Larch]

Welcome back, S!

[Sheilbh]

Welcome back, S!

Thanks - had a lovely holiday. Strongly recommend it

Although given that I've previously gone on holiday the day after the 2015 election, the 2016 referendum and now the day after Kwasi's budget set the economy on fire, I'm slightly worried I'm going to be banned from leaving the country again

[grumbler]

Napoleon's invasion of Russia.

British occupation of Afghanistan was not an invasion per se, but it surely did not end well.

Nappys invasion of Russia took some time before anyone knew it was a disaster.

The actual execution of the invasion was, as far as I am aware, well handled and executed with a very competent and reasonably trained army. Not up to previous versions of the Grand Armee, but still quite well handled.

Nappys invasion of Russia was really a strictly strategic blunder (much like the German invasion of the USSR in WW2 for that matter).

Napoleon's strategic blunder was not in invading Russia (he was, after all, just pre-empting a Russian invasion of Germany), but in continuing on to Moscow when his first-year objective, Smolensk, was burned down and unsuitable for the planned winter-over. 

He also wasn't able to overcome the fierce and unusual late-summer heat wave that cost him 40% of his horses and oxen only a few weeks into the campaign.

If he'd withdrawn to preserve his forces after Smolensk was a bust, his later history would have been very different.

[grumbler]

Didn't Napoleon lose like a third of his army in the first month of the invasion without really fighting a major battle, just because the logistics weren't working?

Yeah, that was the heat wave I mentioned above.  Unlike later losses, though, these were desertions by allied troops that could no longer be fed.  Those guys saved themselves and ended up fighting the French the next year.

[The Larch]

Welcome back, S!

Thanks - had a lovely holiday. Strongly recommend it

Where did you go this time?

Although given that I've previously gone on holiday the day after the 2015 election, the 2016 referendum and now the day after Kwasi's budget set the economy on fire, I'm slightly worried I'm going to be banned from leaving the country again

We were precisely missing your input on the infamous mini-budget. 

[Sheilbh]

Where did you go this time?

Greece - friend moved to Athens earlier in the year so a big group of us went to say hello (and visit an island).

We were precisely missing your input on the infamous mini-budget. 

One of the people on the trip works in finance and had to do some calls that week. I studiously ignored everything and read a few books instead and felt very bad for them.

[OttoVonBismarck]

British occupation of Afghanistan was not an invasion per se, but it surely did not end well.

I think this tends to be exaggerated, right? The British went in because they feared Afghan ruler Dost Mohammed was seeking to ally or become a puppet of Russia, they established a few garrisons (including in Kabul, but Kandahar was their main garrison.) They arranged for a new ruler to be installed and made various deals with Afghan tribal leaders. They proceeded to draw down (dangerously) their Kabul garrison, and started reneging on the deals they had made with tribal leaders. Given this mismanagement it is unsurprising that Dost Mohammed was able to rally supporters to attack Kabul, which they did. With no relief possible due to bad winter weather, the British agreed to leave if they were given safe passage (which they were.) During this retreat they were then massacred by a large force of Afghan tribesmen--whether on behest of Dost Mohammed or out of revenge for British breaking of agreements with them I think is historically unclear.

Then there is a government change in Britain and a desire to quit fucking around there, in exiting the country the scope of the destruction to the Kabul column is discovered, and a deliberately punitive expedition is then conducted which generally commits a long string of mass murders, rapes, destruction of cultural sites, sacking Kabul, removing Dost Mohammed from power (again), and then leaving the country. After which Dost Mohammed quickly takes back over.

Ultimately the British goal of keeping Russia out is successful, and Dost Mohammed even remarked later that he wanted no real trouble with the British, likely the mass war crimes they committed dissuaded him from any consideration of embracing Russia going forward.

Later, the British went back in (like 30 years later) and forced Afghanistan to essentially become a client state, retaining independence but ceding foreign policy decision making authority to the British. That eventually progresses into the 21st century Afghan Monarchy, which was eventually given full independence and remained on decently good terms with the British--in fact keeping the Russians out until the late 1970s when the monarchy is toppled by Afghan communists and the ensuing Soviet war begins.

[mongers]

New satellite images taken by Maxar Technologies show smoke and fire following the explosion on the symbolic Crimean bridge.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZkRvCQ8gDM&ab_channel=%D0%A1%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%96%D0%B4%D1%96%D0%BB%D0%BE

an overview of what happened during the first month or so of the "special operation". Quite impressive video material.

[alfred russel]

On reflection I think the best historical comparison is Putin to Napoleon III-their regimes have a lot of parallels starting with general stupidity. This is roughly the timeline for Putin's Franco-Prussian War.

[Duque de Bragança]

Never thought of Putin as a Saint-Simonian. 

[The Brain]

Is the invasion of the Ukraine the worst executed aggressive invasion in history?

I mean, I am sure there are lots of examples of terribly thought out and executed attacks. But this has a longevity to it that might take it over the top. Usually something this badly handled would at least be over pretty quickly.

French invasion of Prussia in 1870.

[Zanza]

It is bizarre how much of this war can be followed live on social media. Here is a picture of the cleanup of the bridge. Some of the rails look damaged.

[The Brain]

Russian information security isn't airtight.

[Threviel]

Childrens crusade? Anyone attacking the mongols? Mantzikert? Chroesus(sp?)?

I mean it's a badly run war, but its probably not top 50.