Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

... but his successor may similarly aim to be in for the long haul, thinking they can outlast the West.

But yeah, I expect most of us here on languish are ready to settle in for Cold War v2.0 with the West vs Russia, and consequently support supporting Russia to the max, while giving no thought to Putin's face or off ramps and whatnot.

[Legbiter]

Fuck his off-ramps and fuck Russia. They wanna be nostalgic about the Soviet period, let's give them back waiting in long lines for toilet paper.

[The Brain]

Russia is entering CW2 in many ways much weaker than it did CW1. The West may also be weaker in some ways, but on balance I think it looks pretty good.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Since Russia cannot be allowed to win, lest NATO loses all credibility, this thing will probably go and escalate further.
Better start preparing for boots on the ground at some point.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Fuck his off-ramps and fuck Russia. They wanna be nostalgic about the Soviet period, let's give them back waiting in long lines for toilet paper.

Yeah, I see no point in handwringing and sensitivity; Putin and his fellow gangsters are beyong the pale...throwbacks to the 1930s way of doing things.

[Jacob]

Yeah, I see no point in handwringing and sensitivity; Putin and his fellow gangsters are beyong the pale...throwbacks to the 1930s way of doing things.

I agree completely.

[Grey Fox]

As far as I know the Briton that was condemned had Ukrainian citizenship and was part of it's armed force for many years. It's not like they got a foreign legion soldier or James Vasquez.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The Guardian has an article about the two British guys sentenced to death :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/09/who-are-the-britons-condemned-by-russian-show-trial-in-ukraine

They both had long-term comitments to Ukraine before the current invasion started; not that that matters to the Russians of course.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Russia is entering CW2 in many ways much weaker than it did CW1. The West may also be weaker in some ways, but on balance I think it looks pretty good.

Well, at least until the DeSantis administration switches sides.

[Josquius]

The most worrying part of fuck Russia, war for 21 years, etc... Is the food crisis going on.
The world is really rapidly learning quite how important the east European plain is to keeping the world fed.
I increasingly worry the bottom has now dropped off our global food supply chain and even worse times lie ahead.
If I were the Egyptian PM I'd be sending weapons to Ukraine sharpish.

[Admiral Yi]

I think armed escorts for ships running the Black Sea blockade would be a reasonable escalation.

[mongers]

I think armed escorts for ships running the Black Sea blockade would be a reasonable escalation.

Yes, I said as much a while ago in this thread.

The mines might well be an difficulty for the convoys.

Apparently there are 20 million tonnes of grains sitting in Ukranian silos, they're only able to export about 2million a month and they're expecting upto 75million tonnes to be harvested this year, with the winter wheat having to be brought in starting next month.

[Josquius]

I'm not sure armed escorts would do much good considering the mines. Wouldn't you pretty much have to attack Ukraine with naval ships to move them? And then there's nothing stopping the Russians launching an amphibious landing bar their incompetence (which yes. I don't think is a real risk. But one never knows)

Also possible should perhaps be massive investment to setup a grain handling port in a neighbour and improve the rail links. Though this won't pay off over night even with maximum investment.

[alfred russel]

Since Russia cannot be allowed to win, lest NATO loses all credibility, this thing will probably go and escalate further.
Better start preparing for boots on the ground at some point.

NATO doesn't lose credibility even if Ukraine totally collapses. Ukraine is notably outside of the NATO alliance.

Russia is a totally shit country as far as global powers go. It was obvious even before this conflict that its claim to global power was entirely in its nuclear arsenal. If we are looking at it in terms of global powers, it has a totally shit middle income economy, heavily focused on resource extraction, and I guess we see how it stacks up in conventional arms. It is a cultural dead end with state sponsored homophobia and a less than free political and speech climate. There won't be a cold war v2.0 in any meaningful sense because Russia's political power today is probably closer to Iran (excluding the nuclear arsenal) than the USSR of old.

[mongers]

I'm not sure armed escorts would do much good considering the mines. Wouldn't you pretty much have to attack Ukraine with naval ships to move them? And then there's nothing stopping the Russians launching an amphibious landing bar their incompetence (which yes. I don't think is a real risk. But one never knows)

Also possible should perhaps be massive investment to setup a grain handling port in a neighbour and improve the rail links. Though this won't pay off over night even with maximum investment.

Ukraine has a different track guage to Roumania, Poland and the rest of Europe.

Also iirc they're currently training some grain to Moldova, offloading it at a river port, barging it down the Danube to the big Roumanian port, Consent (?spelling) before loading it onto ship. A logistically time consuming and expensive procedure.