Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

A few of the new pieces speculated on blackmail.  The "we got video of you being pee'd on by hookers" might not go far for long...but something more like "we've got proof (or we've manufactured proof) of you trafficking in child porn" might be more of the extreme, fear-inducing stigma go-to if you really want to apply leverage.

Yeah that's very true. I suppose the leverage points just shift over time.

The month-ahead European gas future contract dropped as low as €76.78 per megawatt hour yesterday — its lowest level in 10 months, data from Refinitiv shows."

Bad news for Putin 

Yep - and, so far, except for that one week in December it's been a mild winter. Plus apparently this arctic blast from the US is going to hit Europe but by the time it gets here it'll just be very windy and blustery. Which is great because it means wind power'll be going really strong and blustery is not the type of cold where you need to turn on the heating.

Got a couple of months left - but so far, so good (touch wood)

[HVC]

God bless global warming 

[celedhring]

Yep - and, so far, except for that one week in December it's been a mild winter.

Warmest December since 1914 in the Barcelona area. It was 22C the day before Christmas, utterly ridiculous.

[Zanza]

Germany is now above its most optimistic scenario for using gas from storage... also gas imports are roughly stable YOY, so the missing Russian gas was completely substituted. First two LNG terminals are online now with three more coming in 2023.

[viper37]

I'm sure the lower price will be passed quickly on to customers.

I don't think they're buying their energy in real time for winter time.

[viper37]

A few of the new pieces speculated on blackmail.  The "we got video of you being pee'd on by hookers" might not go far for long...but something more like "we've got proof (or we've manufactured proof) of you trafficking in child porn" might be more of the extreme, fear-inducing stigma go-to if you really want to apply leverage.

Yeah that's very true. I suppose the leverage points just shift over time.

"We have videos of you having sex with another man" is not as damaging as it used to be.  Spycraft is getting harder and harder as days go by.

[Josquius]

So, the Ukraine war is fucking awful, obviously.
But I have got to thinking of it- in terms of the environment is it a net good or bad?
On the surface its clearly bad. So much waste and destruction. So many emissions. Moves towards allowing more domestic production of fossil fuels.
On the other hand...there are hints its speeding up the renewable transition, giving it this wonderful self-dependency excuse.
I wonder if anyone out there is actually trying to quantify this.

[viper37]

On the other hand...there are hints its speeding up the renewable transition, giving it this wonderful self-dependency excuse.

Is it, really?  I feel like countries are more in a rush to find alternative supply for their gaz and oil needs and will soon forget about all the renewable "nonsense", just like before.  I fear this may be only temporary.

[Habbaku]

Why do you feel that way? Do you know of any data that supports that?

[Sheilbh]

Interesting statement from Ukraine's defence minister - again making fairly precise predictions of Russian plans (this time internally), a bit reminiscent of American and British releases of intelligence this time last year:
https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1608961253308784642?s=46&t=jFsdTFbeIhbIHznpHRdyGA

[Zanza]

Germany has stopped import of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) from Russia completely now with the last pipeline oil now stopped. First time since the 1960s.

[Legbiter]

I love the sad eyes and pinched smiles in this one. Russian State TV NY celebrations. They know they're fucked...

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1609719192596381696

[mongers]

I love the sad eyes and pinched smiles in this one. Russian State TV NY celebrations. They know they're fucked...

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1609719192596381696

Yes I saw that and thought one or two of them even showed some disgust in their facial expression

[viper37]

Why do you feel that way? Do you know of any data that supports that?

Germany is building terminals to import liquified natural gaz.  They need it.  But they're also touring the world looking for new oil import sources. 

I haven't seen that much on the energy efficiency front from any European country, UK included.  Some talks about heat pumps, but not much being said and done about better insulation for buildings.  No matter what source of energy you use, if you don't have better insulation, it's wasted energy to cool in the summer and heat in the winter.

I'm a natural pessimist.

[Zanza]

As you mentioned Germany: There have long been programs where the state development bank (KfW) gives very cheap loans or outright subsidies for making houses more energy efficient. Amount and terms depend on what you want to do with the highest energy efficiency getting the biggest support. There are programs for new and existing buildings and also special programs for summer heat.

The situation is not the same in all countries either: