Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Admiral Yi]

Also, Budapest/Hungary might be a more fitting Isengard.

Yup

[Zanza]

A traitor has been identified in Germany's intelligence service. He provided secret information to Russia, which was detected by a foreign intelligence agency in Moscow and reported back to the German service. A spy story like in the movies.

[Jacob]

Do we know what quality of intelligence was provided?

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I saw that story - it seems serious. I read that Scholz was briefed before the arrest but is there any idea what sort of level the spy was?

[celedhring]

Do we know what quality of intelligence was provided?

Fortunately, I don't think Gerhard Schröder has had access to sensitive intelligence in quite a while.

[Zanza]

He is a military colonel working in the department "technical reconnaissance" of the intelligence agency. This gives him access to at least some sensitive information, but as informationis compartmentized, he would only know some of it.
What exact information he gave the Russians was not reported.

[Jacob]

I always wonder about cases like that...

Say, you're working somewhere sensitive and you get inveigled by Russian (or other hostile nation) intelligence. I kind of imagine that in many cases you find yourself compromised and get pulled in deeper and deeper.

Is it possible to, at some point, fess up to your own side and say "yeah, I'm compromised and I've handed over confidential information... but how about I become a double (or is it triple?) agent" and have that work out?

Or do you pretty much have to do it right at the outset ("the Chinese have pictures of me cheating on my wife and I don't want to expose it, can you give me stuff to give to them so they think I'm working for them")?

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I don't know.

All of the famous Soviet agents in the UK over the years (and a recent Russian one) have been motivated by money or ideology. I imagine those motivators are more valuable to a foreign intelligence agency precisely because normally they'll keep going. People don't change their core beliefs or their greed so I imagine you can get info for them as long as you can pay them in one way or another.

My suspicion - and I know nothing - is that the honeypot/blackmail would have a shorter life unless it's something really massive. Plus the person is more likely to have guilt or conflicted feelings which might make them a bit riskier. If it's that situation where you haven't made a choice I'm not really sure when or how you make a move.

Practically if you're in the intelligence agencies and you've been compromised I think they're far more likely to just want you gone than turn you into a double agent. However honest and upright you may have been in coming forward, you've still been compromised - who's to say that's the first time or the only time or that it is really only something new. I suspect you'd have a real risk of being screwed over by both sides.

[Tonitrus]

My suspicion - and I know nothing - is that the honeypot/blackmail would have a shorter life unless it's something really massive. Plus the person is more likely to have guilt or conflicted feelings which might make them a bit riskier. If it's that situation where you haven't made a choice I'm not really sure when or how you make a move.

A few of the new pieces speculated on blackmail.  The "we got video of you being pee'd on by hookers" might not go far for long...but something more like "we've got proof (or we've manufactured proof) of you trafficking in child porn" might be more of the extreme, fear-inducing stigma go-to if you really want to apply leverage.

[Zanza]

The German intelligence agency had similar cases before and there are probably more traitors in the government apparatus. Not sure why they fail at screening so often.

[Razgovory]

The way the Russians have been throwing around money for the last decade their is probably lots of traitors all over the West.

[Razgovory]

Now that I read what I wrote it sounds stupid.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Natural gas prices in Europe fall to levels last seen prior to the war :

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/dec/29/european-natural-gas-prices-drop-rouble-uk-mortgage-oil-china-covid-business-live#:~:text=European%20gas%20prices%20have%20dropped,months%2C%20data%20from%20Refinitiv%20shows.

"European gas prices have dropped back to levels seen before the Ukraine war began in February, as fears of a gas crisis this winter ease.

The month-ahead European gas future contract dropped as low as €76.78 per megawatt hour yesterday — its lowest level in 10 months, data from Refinitiv shows."

Bad news for Putin 

[Syt]

I'm sure the lower price will be passed quickly on to customers.

[Josquius]

I'm sure the lower price will be passed quickly on to customers.

Definitely not in Britain. The high prices are here until the energy sector finally gets a good slapping.
Surely elsewhere things are a bit more sensible?

My suspicion - and I know nothing - is that the honeypot/blackmail would have a shorter life unless it's something really massive. Plus the person is more likely to have guilt or conflicted feelings which might make them a bit riskier. If it's that situation where you haven't made a choice I'm not really sure when or how you make a move.

A few of the new pieces speculated on blackmail.  The "we got video of you being pee'd on by hookers" might not go far for long...but something more like "we've got proof (or we've manufactured proof) of you trafficking in child porn" might be more of the extreme, fear-inducing stigma go-to if you really want to apply leverage.

I would guess it works by 'stacking'(surely there's a proper technical name for this?)- at first its blackmail or light persuasion for something small and innocuous and then you get pulled into giving them ever more and more stuff with the threat of being exposed for the lesser stuff a key stick they hold up alongside the monetary incentives.