Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Threviel]

Now the reports of rapes start coming in, this war will get really really ugly real soon. 

[Josquius]

I'm not very familiar with Russia's "Great Wall". Do people in there have unfiltered address to social media? If so, they've got all the info at their fingertips without much hassle. Sharing it of course might get them in trouble.

Not sure, but people do know how to access certain info. And that's why I'm not a fan of calls to disconnect them from the internet.

Incidentally, Hannity suggested NATO bombing the stalled convoy ... and just not telling anyone it was NATO. Truly, a cunning strategist.

Though with drones these days who is to know?

[Sheilbh]

On Russia's objectives as discussed in the popular press - it's very worth clicking through to the translation:

Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
Komsomolskaya Pravda is a decent sized tabloid in Russia.

Yesterday it ran an absolutely horrifying article consisting of a "debate" between one of its journalists and a political scientist about the future of Ukraine.

My translation in next tweet.
This is my quick translation of the KP Article entitled "Three Possible Scenarios for the Future Functioning of Ukraine After the Russian Special Operation."

The absolute assholes had the temerity to decorate it with Ukrainian girls in national dress.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tog_m5fiROMBzYcRiQi4KJQP6S4XKqe_/view
Fate of Ukraine Debate - KP.pdf
In brief, the journalist presents three scenarios:

1. Ukraine remains at its previous size, minus LNR, DNR and Crimea, provided it swears to neutrality, hands over 'war criminals' to Russia, swears off nukes and does a dozen other things.

He dismisses this too optimistic.
2. Ukraine is subdivided into at least three countries, comprising "New Russia" "Small Russia" and then the Western bits, which they don't hugely care about.

He thinks this is the 'optimal scenario.'

3. Ukraine is dissolved as a country, with the western and south western parts going to Poland, Hungary and Romania and the rest being absorbed into the Russian Federation.

He says this might happen if the aftermath of the "special operation" is chaotic.

The fucker.
The political scientist who is supposed to "debate" him is if anything, somehow worse.

He first envisages chasing Zelensky out of Ukraine to London, where he'll claim asylum and then start a powerless government in exile.
Then, he proposes either parachuting in a Russian friendly President (he suggests Yanukovich, or Azarov) or having a Committee run the country until elections a year or two later.

He anticipates some trouble with Western Ukraine, but says that'll be the new government's problem.
It is, overall, a terrifying glimpse into a mindset most reminiscent of English Lords dividing up distant lands during peak Colonialism.

The tone, the language, the utter casualness with which they evoke dividing up or eliminating a country is breath-taking... and really scary.

[Josephus]

Now the reports of rapes start coming in, this war will get really really ugly real soon. 

I'd question this kind of stuff. Lots of propaganda from both sides.

[Zanza]

Even the fascists support taking Ukrainian refugees with 68%. I can't remember ever seeing a political question with such a clear result in Germany. 

In general, there is a solid 2/3 in favor of sanctions and increased military spending. Similar figures even if that means energy shortage and rising prices in Germany. Also more than 80% say that NATO guarantees peace in Europe.

Let's see how sustained that is, but it is an amazing swing of public opinion here.
https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/crbilderstrecke-807.html

[OttoVonBismarck]

My guess is that direct combat between NATO and Russian forces, even if it were not to cause nuclear strikes, would greatly help Putin with public opinion in Russia.

My view is the reason we need to avoid direct involvement is simply because it puts us in a situation where a fast "cascade of errors" could lead to a nuclear exchange. As much as I feel immense sympathy for the Ukrainian people, the cold reality is we can't risk saving them if it might mean nuclear war. I do not think either us or Russia would actually opt, deliberately, for a nuclear exchange off the bat...but again, a cascade of errors could easily lead to one.

I'm less motivated by a desire to "not give Putin support in Russia." Putin is the absolute dictator of Russia with uncontested control and power. He doesn't need the PR support. I think he isn't remotely vulnerable to domestic influence, and there's enough core Russian nationalists that he never will be. While there's obviously a visible anti-Putin and anti-War movement in Russia, Putin largely has no reason to care about that unless they are willing to really push it to the next level with mass demonstrations and literally threatening his rule. I've seen no indication there is any stomach for that among the Russian people. You basically have a big chunk of the population who loves him and what he's doing. Another chunk dislikes what he's doing but isn't willing to do much about it. The slice willing to threaten his rule is so small that we don't even see any obvious signs of it in the West, meaning it is miniscule.

[The Brain]

It's certainly possible that Putin has an absolute iron grip on Russia. Given Putin's abysmal reading and handling of Ukraine, though, and the fact that he would risk it at all, I wouldn't be shocked if his grip is a lot less competently secure than people suspect.

[Threviel]

Now the reports of rapes start coming in, this war will get really really ugly real soon. 

I'd question this kind of stuff. Lots of propaganda from both sides.

Since rape is a standard part of standard Russian military operations it's quite expected and once the pictures of the victims start to leak I imagine the Ukrainians will stop offering tea and cigarettes to captured Russian soldiers.

[OttoVonBismarck]

It's certainly possible that Putin has an absolute iron grip on Russia. Given Putin's abysmal reading and handling of Ukraine, though, and the fact that he would risk it at all, I wouldn't be shocked if his grip is a lot less competently secure than people suspect.

The thing is you have to be a lot more than "upset" about Ukraine to remove Putin from power. You have to be willing to risk your life, and you would need many hundreds of thousands of Russians to feel the same level of upset about it, willing to risk their lives with you.

Or you need a palace coup, but I think he is actually much more insulated from that than he is from a popular revolt (both of which I think are just supremely unlikely.) Figures like the Ayatollah in Iran and Maduro in Venezuela have held on indefinitely with far worse situations and larger popular unrest than anything going on in Russia.

[Tamas]

What's worse is that we cannot know for sure how this will play out on the range between Putin being offed/dethroned tomorrow with immediate ceasefire, and things escalated to WW3 within a day. And it's likely staying like that for months.

[Syt]

So far, the 2020s haven't been a particularly great time.

[celedhring]

So far, the 2020s haven't been a particularly great time.

Trump lost!

Imagine this shit with a Trump administration. Those people in Atlanta might have saved the world.

[Syt]

That's true.

It's a very familiar feeling here - with all the internal crises in recent years, hard to imagine how Austrian domestic politics might have played out if Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) hadn't narrowly lost the presidential elections ...

[Sheilbh]

In general, there is a solid 2/3 in favor of sanctions and increased military spending. Similar figures even if that means energy shortage and rising prices in Germany. Also more than 80% say that NATO guarantees peace in Europe.

Let's see how sustained that is, but it is an amazing swing of public opinion here.
https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/crbilderstrecke-807.html

There's an Italian political scientist I follow who noted this and basically said there's been a 50% swing from similar questions last week which is extraordinary but also indicative of a pretty deferential political culture. The war has caused shifts in other countries of course but it's all at a far lower rate than this (topping out around 20% swings) which is what you'd expect from a crisis, so it appears that this is both crisis plus following the elite consensus which was the opposite last week so you had almost the opposite numbers last week.

If that's true, in a way, it makes the failure of the Merkel-Schroeder years to lead public opinion on issues around energy, defence and Russia more striking because it seems as if, had leaders advocated for a change, public opinion may actually have changed fairly rapidly. And more was possible if they tried to lead rather than follow public opinion/consensnsus.

So far, the 2020s haven't been a particularly great time.

Yeah - never thought I'd look back nostalgically at the innocent days of a global pandemic and yet here we are

What's worse is that we cannot know for sure how this will play out on the range between Putin being offed/dethroned tomorrow with immediate ceasefire, and things escalated to WW3 within a day. And it's likely staying like that for months.

Yeah I think it's likely to last for some time and only get worse. I think the potential for something spiraling very quickly is high - I don't think WW3 is a risk to be honest. The US and Russia have set up a military-military communication line which is good that allows for de-escalation and I think the NATO alliance has been good in communicated the steps it will not take, which again is very good.

One thing I keep thinking about though, because I hadn't realised it was so low, is that the death toll in the entire Afghan war was about 15,000 for the Soviets. Even if we believe the Russian stats of 500 deaths in the first week I think they are suffering casualties at a rate that Russia hasn't seen since WW2 and I think makes the domestic side particularly unpredictable especially for a war so unpopular that they won't even call it a war publicly.

[Syt]

Yeah I think it's likely to last for some time and only get worse.

Personally, I kind of fear that Kyiv might become the new Sarajevo.