Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[crazy canuck]

Just read a report that Russia is starting to withdraw from the Eastern bank of the Dnipro near Cherson to fortify Crimea instead.

Very interesting if verified to be accurate - so much for the Spring offensive?

[Tonitrus]

Surprised the thread is so quiet, fairly big news today.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64782626

Belarusian opposition says it damaged Russian warplane

The only real source so far are those that claimed it...good enough reason to be skeptical.

[Zanza]

In the first two months of this year, Russia occupied an additional 85 km² (33 square miles) or 0.01% of Ukrainian territory, likely at a cost of tens of thousands soldiers lost. Not sure who will be able to sustain such attrition longer.

[Sheilbh]

I wonder on this - there was lots of talk about both sides preparing spring offensives. Is Russia still able to do one - or is this their spring offensive?

[Grey Fox]

All signs point, that this is it.

[Josquius]

Agreed. My read is its why the wagner boss is bitching about the army so much. Its meant to be his big moment and they're ruining it by not supporting him.
Probably partially true. Also general incompetence and other internal issues to blame.

It is weird we don't seem to have seen much sign of the trained mobiks. Unless the training was so bad it might as well not have been done.

Anyway. Russia is on the verge of a phyric victory in bakmut. Ukraine seem almost surrounded and need to withdraw soon.

[Tamas]

Agreed. My read is its why the wagner boss is hitching about the army so much. Its meant to be his big moment and they're ruining it by not supporting him.
Probably partially true. Also general incompetence and other internal issues to blame.

It is weird we don't seem to have seen much sign of the trained mobiks. Unless the training was so bad it might as well not have been done.

Anyway. Russia is on the verge of a phyric victory in bakmut. Ukraine seem almost surrounded and need to withdraw soon.

This Russian exiled Youtube guy I listen to said a couple of weeks ago that the Wagner boss overstepped recently, publicly deriding a couple of leading Russian generals. In his reading this is a big no-no in Russian society and the ruling class especially - you are ok to be a cutthroat in your fight for power as long as you do it in the background. Bring it out in the open and your cut yourself off.

Thinks what happened to the guy and why the army cut off his supplies and why Putin hasn't intervened on his behalf. On the latter, Putin probably doesn't mind cutting down a rising rival.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Looks like we are getting more mainstream reporting on the tank battle in Vuhledar (which reportedly concluded around Feb 8th), seems like Russia lost at least 130 tanks to ambushes (often using incredibly bad tactics, the kind of thing people have known not to do in tanks since the 1930s--advancing in long columns right into ambushes.) Many of the captured Russians apparently had limited to zero tank training prior to being put inside, including one instance where a captured Russian was a trained medic who had never been in a tank prior to that day.

If this is the substance of Russia's armored units I'm skeptical on how they can sustain a major offensive.

[Tamas]

Looks like we are getting more mainstream reporting on the tank battle in Vuhledar (which reportedly concluded around Feb 8th), seems like Russia lost at least 130 tanks to ambushes (often using incredibly bad tactics, the kind of thing people have known not to do in tanks since the 1930s--advancing in long columns right into ambushes.) Many of the captured Russians apparently had limited to zero tank training prior to being put inside, including one instance where a captured Russian was a trained medic who had never been in a tank prior to that day.

If this is the substance of Russia's armored units I'm skeptical on how they can sustain a major offensive.

The trained medic thing reminds me of my dad's story of his time as a conscript - he was assigned to the ceremonial guard unit which meant no other training than marching around etc, but lack of training was no barrier to making sure proper paperwork (confirming he was trained like he was supposed to be) was done, so they wrote him up as a recon vehicle commander (BRM I think). Had there been a war with NATO, he would had been mobilised to command a BDR whereas in fact he has never seen the inside of a single one, let alone received any training on them.

So I figure maybe its the same thing here - medic guy received conscript training on paper only, and to his misfortune the war broke out.

[Tonitrus]

Almost all of the videos that have come out from mobilized soldiers trying to appeal to their local, hometown political bosses (hah, good luck with that guys), have the story of "we were told we were going to x-y-z in the rear/combat support but when we arrived, we were told that we're in the DNR/LNR military now and guess what, you're also now shock troops".

[Josquius]

The demographics in Donetsk and Luhansk must be absolutely fucked. Can't be many men under 50 left there.
I guess post war we probably will get some heavy ukrainification of the area even without any policies to that effect simply due to the need for people from elsewhere to move in.

Looks like we are getting more mainstream reporting on the tank battle in Vuhledar (which reportedly concluded around Feb 8th), seems like Russia lost at least 130 tanks to ambushes (often using incredibly bad tactics, the kind of thing people have known not to do in tanks since the 1930s--advancing in long columns right into ambushes.) Many of the captured Russians apparently had limited to zero tank training prior to being put inside, including one instance where a captured Russian was a trained medic who had never been in a tank prior to that day.

If this is the substance of Russia's armored units I'm skeptical on how they can sustain a major offensive.

The trained medic thing reminds me of my dad's story of his time as a conscript - he was assigned to the ceremonial guard unit which meant no other training than marching around etc, but lack of training was no barrier to making sure proper paperwork (confirming he was trained like he was supposed to be) was done, so they wrote him up as a recon vehicle commander (BRM I think). Had there been a war with NATO, he would had been mobilised to command a BDR whereas in fact he has never seen the inside of a single one, let alone received any training on them.

So I figure maybe its the same thing here - medic guy received conscript training on paper only, and to his misfortune the war broke out.

Sounds even worse in this case though as a medic would actually be a useful person to have properly asigned as opposed to a marching bandsman.

[Tamas]

Excuse me but my dad was not a marching bandsman, he was used to be standing on ceremony, due to his height. 

In fact at one time he was standing right next to Brezhnev while he was laying a wreath at some memorial, which was the highlight of his conscripted career.

[PDH]

I would think that having a medic operating the tanks shows that the Russian Army is learning to adapt.  He can instantly treat the wounds of those who drive headlong into tank traps....unless one of those guys wounded was him.

[Legbiter]

All signs point, that this is it.

Russians have one punch left in them, given their massive equipment losses. 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I would think that having a medic operating the tanks shows that the Russian Army is learning to adapt.  He can instantly treat the wounds of those who drive headlong into tank traps....unless one of those guys wounded was him.

Not sure if tanks can be healed by medics though.