Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Syt]

Missiles launched into Ukraine from Belarus

Iskander missiles were launched from Belarus into Ukraine around 17:00 (15:00 GMT), an adviser to Ukraine's interior minister says.

It comes after President Zelensky's office announced today that Ukrainian and Russian officials are due to meet for talks on the Belarusian border with Ukraine - although they have not said when.

Anton Herashchenko posted the footage on Facebook.

"Iskanders launched against Ukraine from the vicinity of Mozyr," he wrote. "This means they've brought death somewhere... so this is the kind of ceasefire we have?"

A Ukrainian statement earlier said that Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko had "taken responsibility for ensuring that all planes, helicopters and missiles stationed on Belarusian territory remain on the ground during the Ukrainian delegation's travel, talks and return".

Either Lukashenko was lying, or the Russians decided to override him.

[Tamas]

Orban is saying Hungary won't send weapons to Ukraine because Hungary might need those.

[Maladict]

I'm still seeing Aeroflot flights en-route to Kaliningrad. Interestingly, the aircraft are registered in Bermuda, not Russia.

[celedhring]

Hadn't seen a picture of the whole setup of the nuclear address.



I echo DGuller's comments on Putin's concept of projecting power.

Also those cameras are jumping the axis and this triggers my film school OCD.

[Jacob]

German parliament met today with the Ukrainian ambassador in attendance. Main government announcements were 100 billion Euro additional spending on military equipment and building two LNG ports in Northern Germany.

That seems promising.

[The Brain]

Hadn't seen a picture of the whole setup of the nuclear address.



I echo DGuller's comments on Putin's concept of projecting power.

Why is John Cena moderating?

[Sheilbh]

Hadn't seen a picture of the whole setup of the nuclear address.



I echo DGuller's comments on Putin's concept of projecting power.

Amazing and absolutely crazy.

[Syt]

And they're putting those pictures out thinking they make them look good (or the Kremlin's media department is trying to subvert Putin ).

[Maladict]

Hadn't seen a picture of the whole setup of the nuclear address.


I echo DGuller's comments on Putin's concept of projecting power.

I wonder if he's having chemo treatment or something and his immune system has been compromised throughout Covid. Would also explain the puffy face and, if he's terminally ill, the erratic behaviour.

[Jacob]

I think it was hubris and arrogance. The only explanation I can have is that he thought it would be over very quicly - decapitation strategy, hit Kyiv quickly and create a puppet regime or partition. And if he'd achieved that in say a day or two I think it might have worked - I'm not sure it would've produced the shift in western attitudes, for example, Germany that it has. I think there probably would have been a temptation to normalise, like after 2014.

Yeah, I think a successful decapitation - with Zelensky paraded on TV and Russian troops in major population centres - I think we'd seen a lot more hand-wringing and a lot less action.

[Syt]

Turkey's foreign ministry has signalled that it intends to block Russian warships from passing through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits that lead to the Black Sea, a shift in Turkey's formerly neutral position where officials underlined alliances with both Russia and Ukraine.

"We came to the conclusion that the situation in Ukraine has turned into a war," said Turkish foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. "We will apply the Montreux provisions transparently."

Turkey controls both straits under the Montreux convention, granting it the power to block the passage of Russian and Ukrainian warships, providing they are not returning to their permanent bases in the Black Sea.

The convention means the straits can be blocked if a conflict meets the definition of a war.

The blocking will likely affect a number of Russian vessels currently in the Mediterranean Sea, including submarines and frigates, some of which belong to Black Sea fleets. A block means that Russian warships will not be able to transit the straits to either provide reinforcements to existing forces or to leave and return in order to assist forces in their invasion of Ukraine.

Turkish maritime analyst Yörük Isik pointed to satellite imagery showing at least 16 vessels in the Mediterranean. "What we see are 16 ships, some of them are Black Sea fleet ships. They might have some additional assets including replenishment tankers or small patrol crafts near Tartus but these are the most meaningful assets," he said.

Çavuşoğlu's remarks about the closure of the straits also signalled a shift in Turkish policy that until now has carefully tried to balance its NATO commitments and alliance with Ukraine in tandem with its energy and security dependency on Russia.

Turkey's position has shifted rapidly over the weekend, including remarks earlier today from president Erdogan's chief advisor Ibrahim Kalin, who said "we will continue our efforts to help the people of Ukraine and end bloodshed in this unjust and unlawful war." Until now, Turkish officials had chosen their words carefully, primarily using terms such as "military operation."

Turkey's move to close the straits is a signal that its current foreign policy is prioritising Europe and its NATO commitments over its long-term ties to Russia.

"Turkey has a dependency on Russia, not only on energy like some European countries, but also their security situation. There must be fears within the authority that Russia could green-light an attack by the [Syrian] regime on Idlib," said Ülgen, referring to province in northern Syria controlled by opposition forces including jihadists, with a Turkish presence to deter Russian and Syrian attacks.

[crazy canuck]

I think it was hubris and arrogance. The only explanation I can have is that he thought it would be over very quicly - decapitation strategy, hit Kyiv quickly and create a puppet regime or partition. And if he'd achieved that in say a day or two I think it might have worked - I'm not sure it would've produced the shift in western attitudes, for example, Germany that it has. I think there probably would have been a temptation to normalise, like after 2014.

Yeah, I think a successful decapitation - with Zelensky paraded on TV and Russian troops in major population centres - I think we'd seen a lot more hand-wringing and a lot less action.

One commentator thought it likely they were thinking of a quick operation similar to Georgia.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I find it remarkable the people who seriously seem to suggest if Trump was President Putin wouldn't have done it...that he only did it because of Biden's "weakness."

The only reason he may have been less likely to have invaded had Trump been President is he would not have felt any pressure that the West was going to integrate/help Ukraine more, so he may not have felt much pressure to act (although I feel like at the end of Trump's 2nd 4 year term he'd start feeling a lot of the same pressures.)

Trump was calling Putin one of his "best friends" in 2013.

He simped to him for most of the 2016 campaign and most of his Presidency. He once said he "trusts Putin more than our own intelligence." Yeah, that was the guy who was going to back Putin down.

[Jacob]

Closing the air space between Russia and Kaliningrad would mean certain war for instance.

Both Lithuania and Poland have already closed their airspaces to Russian planes, so that's already happening.

As have Sweden and Finland: https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1497611282731646983?t=_dEtng2641ZfawhNrPOiyA&s=19

[Threviel]

Apparently, and this blows my mind, Sweden will sen 5000 (five thousand, one five and then three zero's) AT4's (Carl-Gustav) to Ukraine.

That is actually a substantial weapons cache for anyone, let aloen Ukraine.