Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

I think the real danger is linking those two things - rapid success with more support.

More support is needed because the kind of rapid success people seem to want to see is not occurring.

A terrible outcome would be more support on condition that it causes rapid success.

For sure - but if we'd ramped up F-16 pilot training and provided planes (and ordinance) such that Ukraine started the Spring offensive with clear air superiority, and if they'd had 10x in terms of artillery and missiles and whatnot so they could hit Russian positions harder, then I think there would've been more and faster progress so far. Now, I'm not an expert so I could be wrong.

That said I understand that there are reasons that didn't happen.

In any case, I trust that Ukrainian high command is making the best use of the resources they can given the circumstances. My personal standpoint is that we should give them as much as possible of what they say they need to win the war and not kibbitz about operational, strategic, or tactical details (I'm okay with kibbitzing about accountability and governance standards to a certain extent, however, where applicable and appropriate).

[celedhring]

Just seen that Prigo is receiveing African dignataries at a hotel in St Petersburg, in parallel to the African summit Russia is holding there.

The whole Prigo situation is truly bizarre.

[Tamas]

Orban's regular Friday morning radio "interview", his points on Ukraine:

"we all know" that "Ukraine's sovereignty is gone" they "do not have their own tax income" they "cannot even operate their civil society on their own, let alone the war", "their strength is spent".

He also said that the EU is running out funds to spend on Ukraine "we have spent 70 billions and have no idea where it went" and that peace depends on America's decision. "If America stopped supplying Ukraine, the EU would quickly turn pro-peace as well" He also was disappointed that Ukraine is getting all this EU money while Poland and Hungary aren't getting their due.

EDIT: forgot the best bit: "we [Hungary] may not be getting our EU grants because they have been given to Ukraine instead".

[Hamilcar]

Orban must be deeply, deeply compromised to stick with Putin at this stage.

[HVC]

He needs that sweet sweet Russian gas.

[Tamas]

He needs that sweet sweet Russian gas.

Maybe but if so then only for his bank accounts. Although the exact numbers are state secrets, I was reading articles very convincingly proving that Hungary has signed a terrible contract for Russian gas. It is not bought for a discount at all, quite on the contrary.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

it's time for the guy to fall from a window or so.

[The Minsky Moment]

Maybe but if so then only for his bank accounts. Although the exact numbers are state secrets, I was reading articles very convincingly proving that Hungary has signed a terrible contract for Russian gas. It is not bought for a discount at all, quite on the contrary.

No doubt the price is quite reasonable once all the kickbacks to Orban and his cronies are deducted.

[Josquius]

Yes. I wonder whether it's some kind of Russian money laundering deal. A clean way for them to gain currency which they'll compensate in some other way.

[The Minsky Moment]

Just watch those Cypriot bank balances go up every time there is a gas payment made.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Belarusian helicopters apparently crossed the polish border for a bit there.
Pretty worrisome if taken in conjunction with wagnerite presence in the area

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, while I still rate the likelihood of a NATO clash "low", the violation of Polish airspace and some of the Danube River port bombings that are getting perilously close to Romanian infrastructure definitely worry me some.

[crazy canuck]

Yep, what happens when Romanian targets are "accidentally" hit

[Josquius]

Sounds like Romanian air defence should cover the danube just to be safe.

[Legbiter]

Ukrainians blowing up the Black Sea fleet overnight with naval drones at Novorossysk.