Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

Getting Russia to send all its best troops to Kherson might not be pure distraction. Seems like a good way to deal with them- strand them on a Russian island, effectively under siege, to be shot with rockets when they try and cross the river again.

[DGuller]

It could be that Kharkiv was a target of opportunity.  Maybe Ukrainians had a contingent plan to attack in the area, just to have the planning bonus in hand, and when they saw that Russia's battleplanner redeployed every unit to Kherson and left no units assigned to that portion of the front, they decided to strike.

[FunkMonk]

Izyum and Kuypansk are, apparently, cut-off. Bad week-end ahead for the Russian forces.

[celedhring]

It could be that Kharkiv was a target of opportunity.  Maybe Ukrainians had a contingent plan to attack in the area, just to have the planning bonus in hand, and when they saw that Russia's battleplanner redeployed every unit to Kherson and left no units assigned to that portion of the front, they decided to strike.

Yeah, Russia's AI looks like the work of Paradox.

[Iormlund]

Yeah, Russia's AI looks like the work of Paradox.

The 3rd Army group is advancing West as we speak. Wait no, East now. No wait ... it stopped. No, definitely on the move ...

[mongers]

So what if Ukranian success builds and they can eventually drive a wedge to sea of Azov?

Th kill the russian bridge to Crimea and there are proportionately huge Russian forces stranded behind enemy lines; could such a disaster result in Putin being toppled?

[Barrister]

So what if Ukranian success builds and they can eventually drive a wedge to sea of Azov?

Th kill the russian bridge to Crimea and there are proportionately huge Russian forces stranded behind enemy lines; could such a disaster result in Putin being toppled?

Who knows?

But it seems Putin has now survived 50,000 KIA in the last six months and is still in power.  The most common wisdom out there is that as long as Putin maintains control over the security services, and ordinary Muscovites are content, then he faces no risk of a coup.

[Barrister]

Maybe one reason the Russian lines are so thin?

The Russians have somewhere between 15k (foreign estimates) and 50k (Russian claims) troops near Vladivostok performing war games "Vostok 2022" with the Chinese.   

[Iormlund]

Those might be mostly conscripts, who can't be sent to the warzone. Unless someone "convinces" them to enlist, of course.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Getting Russia to send all its best troops to Kherson might not be pure distraction. Seems like a good way to deal with them- strand them on a Russian island, effectively under siege, to be shot with rockets when they try and cross the river again.

...try and cross the river again, but this time without the ability to take their heavy equipment with them.
Which the AU can then capture if the RU doesn't disable it. Either way RU potentially loses a lot of equipment.
Don't know where it was I heard it but Cherson has to potential to be one of the biggest transfers of military equipment to UA since almost forever.

EDIT: aren't a lot of the 'Russian' troops just conscripts from the DNPR and the LPR (sp?, those fake republics)? And aren't those militias not only badly armed but also pretty much depleted since the Russians have been using them as fodder (in their ploy to genocide as many non-russians as possible)

[Tamas]

I feel like it is worrying that the only loud opposition from the war in Russia is from far-right vloggers who are ashamed by the failures and demand general mobilisation and more vigorous action against Ukraine.

I know this is probably entirely because of the dictatorship and how these guys get permission while anti-war people get jail. But that doesn't change the fact that they get to control the narrative, and that they show that the news of the war going badly is spreading, yet there is no visible mass of people who would be willing to risk jailtime to oppose it.

[Barrister]

I feel like it is worrying that the only loud opposition from the war in Russia is from far-right vloggers who are ashamed by the failures and demand general mobilisation and more vigorous action against Ukraine.

I know this is probably entirely because of the dictatorship and how these guys get permission while anti-war people get jail. But that doesn't change the fact that they get to control the narrative, and that they show that the news of the war going badly is spreading, yet there is no visible mass of people who would be willing to risk jailtime to oppose it.

Yes, I think you have the score about right: it's that these voices are allowed, while anti-war / anti-Putin voices are not.

But it certainly does risk a "knife in the back" narrative even if Ukraine fully wins.

[Jacob]

Kamil Kazani had a post about how some Russian regions had been arming regiments, but somehow - nationalists complain - there's been no news about them at the front. This, they thought, is a PR failure. He implied that another scenario was possible, namely that those forces are being prepared to participate in the post-War contest for redistribution of power (I'm guessing he doesn't mean all out fighting, but rather that having local armed people available when the centre is weakened allows you to push others around while you yourself can resist being pushed around).

Now I don't know how substantial and credible this is - Kazani clearly hopes for a collapse of the Russian imperial state - but it was an interesting post I thought.

[Barrister]

Now I don't know how substantial and credible this is - Kazani clearly hopes for a collapse of the Russian imperial state - but it was an interesting post I thought.

I very much enjoy Kazani's tweets, and they give me some interesting insights, but he has too much of an agenda for me to take him as an expert absent other sources.

[Barrister]

By the way - I will never get tired of watching videos of emotional Ukrainian civilians greeting Ukrainian troops after living under Russian occupation for months.