Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Syt]

Has Schröder reared his fat head since the attack began?

No, he's kept mum. Former FPÖ leader and vice-chancellor HC Strache posted last night on Twitter: "Is the federal government going to completely destroy our everlasting neutrality (breach of constitution), side with the NATO military alliance and is eagerly join sanctions against Russia that will be harmful for Austria?"

[Threviel]

So I'm reading a lot of Russian convoys entering from all directions but nothing of resistance？

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1496781552994463744

Cannot vouch for veracity, but seems credible.

[jimmy olsen]

So I'm reading a lot of Russian convoys entering from all directions but nothing of resistance？

Russian vehicles burning here
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1496774331795394561

[Syt]

My colleague asked if I could recommend and credible news sources about the conflict, because most news were "unconfirmed reports". I think this is the first bigger war he witnesses; he would have been too young for Iraq. I told him I mostly stick to larger news org's live tickers, because they should filter out the worst at least. He's pretty digital/social media savvy, so I think he didn't need much reminding.

I had a browse through Twitter, and yeah - good luck sorting through what's real, what's a repost from a few year ago shared as new, what's propaganda and misinformation etc.

[Syt]

[Syt]

Is the GOP fully and visibly in the tank for Russia? Are they hemming and hawing a bit? Are they split? Or... are they all in with Tucker Carlson et. al.?

Forbes has an article from a century, I mean: a day ago:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2022/02/23/these-conservatives-are-defending-russia-in-ukraine-crisis-and-trump-leads-the-way

These Conservatives Are Defending Russia In Ukraine Crisis—And Trump Leads The Way

As President Joe Biden and Western leaders seek to defuse a potentially catastrophic war in eastern Europe, a handful of primarily right-wing American political figures are slamming the Western response and even praising Russian President Vladimir Putin's move to send troops into Ukraine—former President Donald Trump being the most prominent among them.

KEY FACTS

Trump, in an interview Tuesday, called Putin's decision to recognize two Russian-backed breakaway states in eastern Ukraine and order Russian troops in as so-called peacekeepers a "genius" move, going on to call Putin "a guy who's very savvy."

Earlier in the day, Trump released a statement bashing Biden's "weak" response without suggesting what he thinks the penalties should be for Russia, breaking what had been a nearly month-long silence on the growing crisis in Ukraine.

Right-wing commentator Candace Owens blasted the U.S. response in a series of tweets Tuesday, saying Americans should read a transcript of Putin's address to the UN Security Council "to know what's *actually* going on," and claiming that potential NATO membership for Ukraine serves as a threat to Russia and means "WE are at fault."

On his show Tuesday night, Fox News host Tucker Carlson urged Americans to ask "Why do I hate Putin?" and has questioned why it would be "disloyal" for Americans to side with Russia if war breaks out.

Tulsi Gabbard, who's moved toward the right since running for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, said on Sean Hannity's Fox News show Monday that Putin's reaction is a natural response to a potential NATO threat along Russia's borders, telling Hannity: "Putin has made clear all along that their security, in his mind, is what's at stake here."

Right-wing firebrand Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) has also repeatedly criticized the U.S. response, including in a letter sent to Secretary of State Antony Blinken earlier this month criticizing U.S. support for granting Ukraine NATO membership.

CRUCIAL QUOTE

"How smart is that?" Trump said on the right-wing radio program The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show about Putin ordering Russian troops across the border. "And he's gonna go in and be a peacekeeper."

SURPRISING FACT

Trump-era Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has also recently blasted the U.S. response and said he had "enormous respect" for the "talented statesman" Putin, but he acknowledged in a tweet Monday that Putin "is the aggressor."

KEY BACKGROUND

U.S. officials have called Russia's move into eastern Ukraine the "beginning of an invasion," with about 190,000 Russian troops believed to be along Ukraine's borders. The Ukrainian government on Wednesday announced a nationwide state of emergency as the country dealt with a fresh wave of cyberattacks, which the U.S. has warned could serve as a precursor for a full ground invasion. Putin's decision to move troops into Ukraine's breakaway regions prompted swift international condemnation, with the European Union and many Western countries, including the U.S., imposing sanctions. Biden announced the "first tranche" of sanctions Tuesday, which largely serve to block Russian access to Western financial institutions and include penalties against Russian elites. Biden also signed an executive order Monday prohibiting new U.S. investment in the two Ukrainian regions Russia's recognized as independent, the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic.

TANGENT

Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) said that late last month his office was flooded with calls from Tucker Carlson viewers who he said were "upset that we're not siding with Russia in its threats to invade Ukraine."

[Zanza]

It'll take a decade to build away the reliance on Russian gas if it's all men to the pumps right now, in practice two decades or something like that. The west can't really sanction Russia to death until then.

Germany will huff and haw and do nothing presumably, some symbolic sanctions but they won't and the can't stop buying Russian gas in the middle of winter.

In 2020, Germany bought 29% of Gazprom's EU+UK gas deliveries, a bit more than its 21% share of GDP then. It's the biggest single customer of course. But even if Germany would stop using Russian gas completely somehow, that would leave 71% of the EU+UK consumption. And probably more as Germany would buy the gas others are using right now. I know it's somehow fashionable to pretend that this is a German-only issue, but it is not. Other countries are actually more exposed relatively, Germany just happens to be the biggest...

[Grey Fox]

Did Russia succeed in taking Kiev's airport?

[The Larch]

It'll take a decade to build away the reliance on Russian gas if it's all men to the pumps right now, in practice two decades or something like that. The west can't really sanction Russia to death until then.

Germany will huff and haw and do nothing presumably, some symbolic sanctions but they won't and the can't stop buying Russian gas in the middle of winter.

In 2020, Germany bought 29% of Gazprom's EU+UK gas deliveries, a bit more than its 21% share of GDP then. It's the biggest single customer of course. But even if Germany would stop using Russian gas completely somehow, that would leave 71% of the EU+UK consumption. And probably more as Germany would buy the gas others are using right now. I know it's somehow fashionable to pretend that this is a German-only issue, but it is not. Other countries are actually more exposed relatively, Germany just happens to be the biggest...

IIRC, Italy is, after Germany, the EU country with a higher dependance on Russian gas. Other eastern EU countries, like the Baltics, also have quite high dependance as well, although the volume of gas they need is of course much lower.

[The Larch]

Did Russia succeed in taking Kiev's airport?

I think it ended up being "just" bombing by missiles, there were no troops involved.

[The Larch]

My colleague asked if I could recommend and credible news sources about the conflict, because most news were "unconfirmed reports". I think this is the first bigger war he witnesses; he would have been too young for Iraq. I told him I mostly stick to larger news org's live tickers, because they should filter out the worst at least. He's pretty digital/social media savvy, so I think he didn't need much reminding.

I had a browse through Twitter, and yeah - good luck sorting through what's real, what's a repost from a few year ago shared as new, what's propaganda and misinformation etc.

In this day and age of social media and tons of platforms the range of possibilities to follow something like this can be quite overwhelming. I woke up in the middle of the night just when shit was hitting the fan and in a very cursory look you had quite an array of sources. There were options ranging from the traditional (regular Twitter feed, curated lists of sources on Twitter, newspapers' live tickers, etc.) to the more sophisticated (Twitch live streams, live chats on Twitter, etc.). The problem is not knowing who is reliable and who isn't.

[Zanza]

Has Schröder reared his fat head since the attack began?

He is unapologetic and shameless, not stupid.

[Sheilbh]

This is just sad.

It is incrediby sad

Just heartbreaking looking at the Guardian liveblog - especially the comments and lines from people in Ukraine. The colonel on the front line texting a journalist "this is the end"; the sailor from Odessa in Lviv watching the news and trying to get back because his city's calling for help due to fears of amphibrious invasion; shells in Kyiv (which I've been to a few of times and felt to me like Berlin did 10-20 years ago - like a city creating itself with a cool, creative energy).

And as all the people in this are just pawns - worrying reports of forced conscription in the LNR and DNR for "separatist forces" who'll no doubt just be ill-trained cannon fodder.

What I find remarkable is that Putin has failed to present much of a reasonable excuse this time, also thanks to the very public sharing of intelligence by the US. Overall, he's cast as a villain in this. With Crimea, there were still plenty apologists who excused the occupation, and FPÖ politicians from Austria happily flew over to attest the legitimacy of the post fact referendum. (There'll be some incorrigible holdouts, obviously.)

Noted on the Guardian liveblog that there's a huge contrast between the PR efforts in Russia this time compared to 2014. There was a lot mass demos, open letters from celebrities, concerts etc in support of "freeing" Crimea. This time there's none of that. As he put it, Putin seems totally indifferent to public opinion this time - it's for the history books/his place in history.

As someone said, the sanctions have already been priced in by the Russians.

Yeah. We absolutely should impose the harshest sanctions we can. And write to our MPs to ask them to push for that as well as calling for our governments to prepare to help with refugees especially around Ukraine but also here and, in particular, refugee status for democratic activists, LGBT activists, human rights campaigners etc (I keep thinking about that line in Putin's speech about knowing who's to blame for things and going to deal with them - and the US intelligence of "lists" of targets). But sanctions ultimately put a price on whatever action you're trying to deter, if you have accepted that your country will bear that price then that's kind of it.

I think it's also probably time for cultural sanctions on Russia - just like with apartheid South Africa. I know it sounds flippant, but no Eurovision, no UEFA Champions League, no concerts by big western artists or tours by orchestras and theatre companies, no friendlies by football clubs with CSKA or Zenit etc. I think it's always worth keeping cultural and person-to-person connections alive but I think we need to exclude Russia now, as South Africa was excluded.

[Sheilbh]

IIRC, Italy is, after Germany, the EU country with a higher dependance on Russian gas. Other eastern EU countries, like the Baltics, also have quite high dependance as well, although the volume of gas they need is of course much lower.

Yeah - I also think frankly Germany is rich and developed enough to have choices and options. From what I understand the Baltics and Poland get almost all of their gas from Russia (though I'm not sure how much that is in their energy mix overall) - hopefully there's something that can be done to support them because it might be a very sudden and severe energy transition and I don't know that they are as far along the path on things like renewables as Germany.

Italy is a bit of a problem. Just last week Draghi was saying sanctions shouldn't be too severe and should probably exclude the energy sector - I remember an incredible story when this was all starting and most Western countries were starting to express concerns and basically Italy arranged for a call between executives of companies like ENI with their Russian counterparts. I think on energy and sanctions Germany has realised how serious this is and moved appropriately (my criticism of Germany would focus on the arms point of being a major arms exporter with qualms about sending even defensive weapons to a country in Europe facing invasion). From everything I've read on sanction the big European country I'd worry about most is Italy - and it could be a big test for Draghi, he's a technocrat and an economic reformer etc who will now have to deal with a huge foreign policy crisis (so far everything Draghi has said on foreign policy worries me because it seems to look at it purely through an economic/trade lens).

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yes, complete exclusion from sporting and cultural events. Let them have their own leagues and shows with Belarus and their other puppets.