Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[mongers]

Noticed this on steam:

https://store.steampowered.com/news/app/282070/view/3099043827448708763

11 bit studios statement

All profits from This War of Mine will be donated to the Ukrainian Red Cross to directly support victims of war!
11 bit studios statement

[Sheilbh]

I generally find the lighting monuments up in Ukrainian colours pretty anodyne - especially when it's in rich, networked countries like the UK where there's still more we can do. Having said that - I found the Bosnians lighting up Mostar bridge in Ukrainian colours pretty moving given the very real risks that there could also be violence there quite soon

[mongers]

Can we believe the stuff coming out the Ukrainian defense ministry?  They report inflicting casualties and taking back Hostomel Airport and Mariupol.  I have a bad feeling it is all bullshit, but at least it is a glimmer of hope.

Raz, it's very hard to say; we'll have to wait for 2-3 days to see the true state of affairs.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_3L0z1lgAE

CNN crew goes to airport, asks troops guarding the gate where the Russians are, they say we are the Russians.  Some combat-ish footage.

[HVC]

Thinking about the sanctions I wonder what China thinks? Can't be putting much fear into Xi

[Sheilbh]

Can we believe the stuff coming out the Ukrainian defense ministry?  They report inflicting casualties and taking back Hostomel Airport and Mariupol.  I have a bad feeling it is all bullshit, but at least it is a glimmer of hope.

I think so - within reason. It's a war so they won't necessarily be telling the truth or certainly the unvarnished truth. Although sadly nowhere near a position of hope yet

But they are admitting when they've lost ground. On Hostomel the President's adviser said they'd re-taken and then clarified that actually there was still fighting ongoing, a little bit later the MoD said they had subsequently re-taken. Their briefing today seems broadly that they've been pushed back in Chernobyl and the most serious breakthrough is around Kherson/out of Crimea - but the eastern border is apparently holding pretty well. They don't seem to be making bold over-claims.

All of those seem to be pretty consistent and seem to have other reports backing them up. So I think on day one they've earned a little credibility, but it's really difficult to know properly and there will be a lot of nonsense floating around. I think that's just the nature of it - people doing really well and diligently trying to report the truth on this will fuck up.

[jimmy olsen]

Yeah. I admit to being worried about that, as I think there's a non-trivial current in American politics that is against NATO and Europe, and I think Putin has nurtured a pretty strong hand of both direct agents and useful idiots. I hope to see America rise to the challenge, but I am far from confident.

Different currents in American politics may matter - I think what matters more is that - unlike OvB I'm not convinced the US can significantly defend Europe and build up as necessary in the Pacific to support their allies there. And I think they'll (probably rightly) see China as the bigger threat that they need to focus on and their Asian allies as less able (if they wish) to maintain their defence than in Europe. I do not see America (regardless of whose in charge) continuing to increase deployments or prioritise European allies (who are some of the richest countries in the world) to face off against a relatively declining petro-state with an economy the size of Benelux, given the challenges US allies are facing in Asia.

I think that choice is coming at some point in the next 10 years - probably this administration or the next.

South Korean military and Japanese SDF are both way more formidable than any European military.

[Razgovory]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_3L0z1lgAE

CNN crew goes to airport, asks troops guarding the gate where the Russians are, they say we are the Russians.  Some combat-ish footage.

So taking back the airport was a more aspirational statement than factual one.

[Sheilbh]

South Korean military and Japanese SDF are both way more formidable than any European military.

I've no doubt - but Russia's not China either. Sorry that wasn't meant as a slight to Asian allies - but that I think China's a big challenge/risk to respond to than Russia. As I say Russia is in relative decline, it's hydro-carbon based economy and its economy is the size of Benelux - if European countries, some of the richest and most advanced in the world, wanted to that is a challenge they can face without more and more US support. I don't think that situation holds in Asia-Pacific - I don't think South Korea and Japan (even if they could work together) could really face or manage China which is a rising power.

That's the choice I think is coming for the US - and I think they will (probably rightly) choose the Pacific.

[Admiral Yi]

So taking back the airport was a more aspirational statement than factual one.

You can't deduce that from this clip alone, unless you compared time stamps.

Although Shelf mentioned that Ukrainian MOD already walked back their recapture claim.

This clip does give the impression the spetznatz unit is pretty small.  Feeds into the theory that Putin bought his own propaganda about being welcomed as liberators.

[Jacob]

Incidentally Ukraine's Defence Minister has said 'we need as much Stinger and anti-tank weapons as possible'. I hope we can send them.

Problem is they needed them now, with Russia all over the country how do we even do the logistics of getting things to Ukraine without putting people directly in the warzone.

I know this is probably a naive simplification... but... drive them to the Eastern border of Poland and Slovakia and hand them over at the border?

[Eddie Teach]

Yeah. I admit to being worried about that, as I think there's a non-trivial current in American politics that is against NATO and Europe, and I think Putin has nurtured a pretty strong hand of both direct agents and useful idiots. I hope to see America rise to the challenge, but I am far from confident.

Different currents in American politics may matter - I think what matters more is that - unlike OvB I'm not convinced the US can significantly defend Europe and build up as necessary in the Pacific to support their allies there. And I think they'll (probably rightly) see China as the bigger threat that they need to focus on and their Asian allies as less able (if they wish) to maintain their defence than in Europe. I do not see America (regardless of whose in charge) continuing to increase deployments or prioritise European allies (who are some of the richest countries in the world) to face off against a relatively declining petro-state with an economy the size of Benelux, given the challenges US allies are facing in Asia.

I think that choice is coming at some point in the next 10 years - probably this administration or the next.

South Korean military and Japanese SDF are both way more formidable than any European military.

But UK and France have nukes.

[mongers]

So in Putin minds, Ukraine doesn't exist, it should be a region of a greater Russia; Ukrainians and Russians are just blood brothers?

But I'm willing to be in all of his various personal security details you won't now find one person with so much as a single granny who was Ukrainian.

[Sheilbh]

You can't deduce that from this clip alone, unless you compared time stamps.

Although Shelf mentioned that Ukrainian MOD already walked back their recapture claim.

This afternoon they said there was a counter-attack. They later walked back a claim they'd re-taken it earlier this evening (a Presidential adviser not the MoD) and clarified that there was still fighting ongoing. The MoD said they'd retaken it about 9 pm Ukrainian time. My understanding is there are other reports that that's correct.

[Admiral Yi]

What are you retelling me something I just summarized?