Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

I read some comments today by some reporter who said that preventing Russia from using SWIFT wouldn't actually be that harmful for them for several reasons, one of them being (IIRC) preventing that parallel system that Russia would have to employ (already developed after Crimea but not fully implemented, or something) from cementing itself as a real, solid alternative for SWIFT.

I've seen a few reporters query how useful it would actually be - but I'd note that it's the thing Ukraine's Foreign Minister has repeatedly called for today which makes me inclined to think we should do it.

Also there is arguably a symbolic value in cutting Russia from our payments system even (perhaps especially?) if they do have to create an alternative.

[Berkut]

I hate arguments of the form "It won't be that effective!"

They are *always* put forth by someone with something to lose by it.

If it isn't that effective, then do it along with a bunch of other stuff. If it doesn't hurt them that much, then fine.

[The Larch]

The alternative, SPFS (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPFS) already exists, although not fully implemented or operational, don't know exactly. It's mostly used within Russia and with only a few foreign entities registered on it, Maybe it should be included in the sanctions that EU banks are banned from using it (wiki says that at least German banks are connected to it).

[Josquius]

Looks like the fight for Hostomel Airfield outside Kyiv is possibly quite important - apparently it's key for Russia's ability to assault Kyiv (I assume in a sort of rapid decapitation strategy).

I assume it's for supplying purposes, or rapid deployment of air-transported units, as it seems to be an important logistic hub. It's known as the Antonov airport becauseit is owned by Antonov, the same company that produces the Antonov cargo planes, owns and operates it, and lots of cargo planes are based there, including the only existing An-225 plane, the world's largest cargo plane.

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1496954024914046978

Ukrainian MoD claims the Homostel airport has been taken back from the Russians.

It was a Ukranian Spetznatz brigade that retook the airport, apparently, and it was held by Russian Airborne troops (from the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, which were last reported in Belarus). Now that's a FPS scenario waiting to happen. 

Yes....Hopefully there is a happy ending to all this as the video game capacity is large.

Strange to hear of the spetznaz as the good guys for once.

Apparently the reason for Italy to block the sanctions including removing Russia from SWIFT is that several Italian banks have huge exposures to Russian debt, which need SWIFT to get paid.

I know nothing of how these systems work.
But I wonder whether a partial block could not work?
It'll get rid of all the debate and mean we see some action even if not entirely effective.
Best case Russian attempts to transfer money out are tightly controlled and only allowed in cases like these Italian banks getting their debts paid.

[mongers]

Another argument maybe be that by excluding the Russians from SWIFT, which I think is now quite old tech, there'll be no disincentive for them NOT to hack it or bring it down.

At least with lots of dirty Russian money flowing around it between compliant Western banks, tax havens etc there's some reason for the Russians to not cut themselves off from their own money.

[The Larch]

Strange to hear of the spetznaz as the good guys for once.

Well, the word itself is a generic, umbrella term, apparently, and it's of common usage in other countries of the former Soviet Union besides Russia. At least Belarus and Kazakhstan also have units labeled as "spetsnatz".

[Sheilbh]

Apparently the reason for Italy to block the sanctions including removing Russia from SWIFT is that several Italian banks have huge exposures to Russian debt, which need SWIFT to get paid.

Makes sense - and you can easily see how the combination of supply shock for oil and gas plus 20% of the world's wheat supply (which comes through the Black Sea) plus banking exposure could create a very dodgy situation for Italy. But I think the EU has the tools - especially after covid to manage that - and I think there is a bigger threat to the EU than re-igniting sovereign debt issues. I wonder if this might be one of the downsides of having an expert economist and central banker as a technocratic leader because I imagine Draghi is incredibly alive and aware of the financial risks but seems on foreign policy in general to be very flat-footed.

Macron's a striking contrast because he rightly and explicitly links EU fiscal capacity with strategic autonomy for exactly moments like this. The EU can collectively support particularly exposed economies if the EU for strategic/geopolitical reasons decides to impose sanctions.

[DGuller]

Strange to hear of the spetznaz as the good guys for once.

Well, the word itself is a generic, umbrella term, apparently, and it's of common usage in other countries of the former Soviet Union besides Russia. At least Belarus and Kazakhstan also have units labeled as "spetsnatz".

It literally means special forces. 

[Admiral Yi]

I looked it up, according to wiki the NLAWS is a more sophisicated fire and forget guided light AT missile, so a definite improvement on LAWS.

Groovy

[The Larch]

Apparently the reason for Italy to block the sanctions including removing Russia from SWIFT is that several Italian banks have huge exposures to Russian debt, which need SWIFT to get paid.

Makes sense - and you can easily see how the combination of supply shock for oil and gas plus 20% of the world's wheat supply (which comes through the Black Sea) plus banking exposure could create a very dodgy situation for Italy. But I think the EU has the tools - especially after covid to manage that - and I think there is a bigger threat to the EU than re-igniting sovereign debt issues. I wonder if this might be one of the downsides of having an expert economist and central banker as a technocratic leader because I imagine Draghi is incredibly alive and aware of the financial risks but seems on foreign policy in general to be very flat-footed.

Macron's a striking contrast because he rightly and explicitly links EU fiscal capacity with strategic autonomy for exactly moments like this. The EU can collectively support particularly exposed economies if the EU for strategic/geopolitical reasons decides to impose sanctions.

Well, Draghi of all people should be perfectly aware of the financial muscle that the EU can flex if needed in order to support member states during a crisis.

[Sheilbh]

Well, Draghi of all people should be perfectly aware of the financial muscle that the EU can flex if needed in order to support member states during a crisis.

Agreed. But this would be a crisis you inflict on yourself, knowing you've got that muscle, in order to achieve a foreign policy or strategic goal. That's where I wonder if he's more inclined to try and avoid that crisis (knowing how tough it was last time), while Macron seems more pushing to provoke it (knowing the EU can deal with it) for that foreign policy/strategic goal.

[mongers]

Somewhat disappointed that BBC News channel is 'branding' it as "the Russia-Ukraine Conflict."

Whereas Al Jazeera News has moved from "Russian - Ukrainian Crisis" to "Russia Attacks Ukraine", that's from yesterday, the start of the invasion.

[DGuller]

One for the trivia section of future history books:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Snake_Island

The Battle of Snake Island (Zmiinyi Island in Ukranian) took place on 24 February 2022 in Snake Island during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

At around 18:00, Ukrainian State Border Guards announced that Snake Island had come under attack from Russian ships, during the first day of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

At 22:00 (01:00 Moscow Time, UTC+2), the State Border Guard Service announced that Russian forces had captured the island following a naval and air bombardment that destroyed all infrastructure on the island. Thirteen Ukrainian border guards, representing the entirety of the Ukrainian military presence on the island, were killed during the battle after refusing to surrender.

"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

The recording of the exchange, if confirmed, is in the following tweet: https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1496990787539595280

That's an accurate translation.  Feels depressing to know that the man and woman quietly deliberating on how to respond would be dead before the day was done.

[Razgovory]

Can we believe the stuff coming out the Ukrainian defense ministry?  They report inflicting casualties and taking back Hostomel Airport and Mariupol.  I have a bad feeling it is all bullshit, but at least it is a glimmer of hope.

[Admiral Yi]

Not sure, LAWS probably stand for Light Ant-tank Weapon, likely an unguided rocket with a small HEAT warhead, NLAWS by name suggest something similar.

Whereas Yi is asking about Javelins which are more recent guided AT/battlefield missiles with more effective hit rates and warheads?  Just my guess.

FYI LAWS was the tube you see grunts carrying in every Vietnam documentary.  Disposable tube, short range, and from everything I've read useless against tanks.