Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Berkut]

There seems to be a real soft spot in the human psyche for a genius strongman leader. It seems to transcend tribalism - you get people apparently wanting to give loyalty to ethnic nationalists from a completely different ethnicity, who would loathe them if they knew about them.

Putin seems to be the latest in a series of beneficiaries of this tendency.

Of course there is an element of similarity at work - Putin hates social liberalism, and so do many of his non-Russian followers - but there is more to it than 'I wish to be like Putin, and jail all the degenerates I hate'. There is a real emotional need to find someone like that, and believe in his destiny.

My thoery: the world and human society are super complex. We all have to find ways to simplify things to be able to function day-to-day. Following a genius strongman is one way to reduce some of the complexity fairly significantly.

That is an excellent point, and it follows why it is so hard to discuss rationally with the people who fall for this.

The analysis, for example, of why Russia's econonomy has struggled post Cold War is an interesting, and complicated subject. But if you talk to a Russian ultra-nationalist, it is incredibly simple. Russia has struggled because the West screws and exploits them, hates them, and won't play fair.

How do you argue against that with someone who will demand an equally "simple" explanation? Not only do you have to argue a difference in intent, you have to make an argument that is equally trivial to understand, and of course, the reality is NOT trivially easy to understand. It isn't insanely hard to understand, but it isn't something nice and simple either.

A lot of people demand simple answers and simple explanations. And a lot of con men are happy giving them just that.

[alfred russel]

Armenia considered pursuing EU membership but opted on its own to join Russia's Eurasian Economic Community instead back in 2013, and because of its military conflicts with Azerbaijan (Russia is Armenia's primary arms supplier), it is not meaningfully realistic Armenia would turn away from Russia. The fact that Turkey is a NATO member would complicate any efforts by Armenia to seek close relationships with a non-Russiam patron.

You may not have been keeping up to date on this topic. In 2018, Armenia elected a prime minister that was against hte 2013 membership in the EEU. He was generally seen as less amenable to russia nad more western in orientation and was working with nato.

This was an insane perspective for armenia to take because it is entirely dependent on Russia in its conflict with Azerbaijan, and a major contributing factor toward russia letting armenia drift in the wind in its 2020 conflict and ultimate loss in fighting against Azerbaijan.

My point in raising the example of armenia is that the russia model is so shitty versus the EU model that post soviet voters prefer it even in cases where it is virtually suicidal.

[Habbaku]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-ending-europe-trip-with-unity-message-that-echoes-past/2022/03/26/a6af6088-acbc-11ec-8a8e-9c6e9fc7a0de_story.html

WARSAW, Poland — President Joe Biden on Saturday called for Russian leader Vladimir Putin's removal, saying, "For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power."

Biden also used a speech in Poland's capital to make a vociferous defense of liberal democracy and the NATO military alliance, while also saying Europe must steel itself for a long fight against Russian aggression.

In what was billed by the White House as a major address, Biden spoke in front of the Royal Castle, one of Warsaw's notable landmarks that was badly damaged during War II.

He borrowed the words of Polish-born Pope John Paul II and cited anti-communist Polish dissident and former president, Lech Walesa, as he warned that Putin's invasion of Ukraine threatens to bring "decades of war."

"In this battle we need to be clear-eyed. This battle will not be won in days, or months, either," Biden said.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I dunno if you just are in love with Putin or what, or just trying to be contrary, but there really is no good logical explanation for his behavior. There are tons of emotional and bad thinking explanations for his behavior, but that conflicts with some people's weirdly invested belief that Putin is a supergenius playing the West like a fiddle.

There seems to be a real soft spot in the human psyche for a genius strongman leader. It seems to transcend tribalism - you get people apparently wanting to give loyalty to ethnic nationalists from a completely different ethnicity, who would loathe them if they knew about them.

Putin seems to be the latest in a series of beneficiaries of this tendency.

Of course there is an element of similarity at work - Putin hates social liberalism, and so do many of his non-Russian followers - but there is more to it than 'I wish to be like Putin, and jail all the degenerates I hate'. There is a real emotional need to find someone like that, and believe in his destiny.

It's from the same cloth as the Dirty Harry / John Wayne Wild West sheriff motif, these are manly men who solve problems presented by the world's miscreants and they don't let the "weak and bad" niceties of "corrupt" court systems, defense lawyers and etc get in their way. Real society is complicated and produces lots of structurally annoying/shitty results, and a strongman appeals to the very basic "intuition" (that is proof that intuition isn't the same thing as a good idea) that if we would just do what was right and implement common sense simple solutions, everything would be better.

[OttoVonBismarck]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-ending-europe-trip-with-unity-message-that-echoes-past/2022/03/26/a6af6088-acbc-11ec-8a8e-9c6e9fc7a0de_story.html

WARSAW, Poland — President Joe Biden on Saturday called for Russian leader Vladimir Putin's removal, saying, "For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power."

Biden also used a speech in Poland's capital to make a vociferous defense of liberal democracy and the NATO military alliance, while also saying Europe must steel itself for a long fight against Russian aggression.

In what was billed by the White House as a major address, Biden spoke in front of the Royal Castle, one of Warsaw's notable landmarks that was badly damaged during War II.

He borrowed the words of Polish-born Pope John Paul II and cited anti-communist Polish dissident and former president, Lech Walesa, as he warned that Putin's invasion of Ukraine threatens to bring "decades of war."

"In this battle we need to be clear-eyed. This battle will not be won in days, or months, either," Biden said.

This is not good in my opinion. Openly stated regime change as a goal of the West, does not advance our collective interests in any way I can easily see. I also feel like it potentially gives the Chinese more cover to assist Russia more than they had previously been willing. We'll have to see how it plays out, but I think this was a blunder by Biden.

[Berkut]

Yeah, I don't see any upside in stating that outright, at least not by the POTUS.

[celedhring]

I'm seeing aidés trying to hilariously walk that bit back ("he meant power over people outside Russia!). I think Biden went offscript 

[Sheilbh]

Chickens coming home to roost for the Kremlin as a consequence of them getting hammered in Ukraine. They've been re-deploying forces from South Ossetia and other areas of the Caucasus to Ukraine.

The Russian MoD then noted and condemned 4 drone attacks by Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh and that Azerbaijan was breaching the ceasefire that ended the war, and that Russia enforces as the peacekeeper. Azerbaijan's now criticised that statement, alleged that Armenia is in breach and called for Russia to withdraw its forces from the region.

Meanwhile Iran has said they will respond if any country in the region tries to unilaterally redraw borders.

[grumbler]

Yeah, I don't see any upside in stating that outright, at least not by the POTUS.

The only upside is the rep gain for stating an obvious truth.

[Admiral Yi]

Chickens coming home to roost for the Kremlin as a consequence of them getting hammered in Ukraine. They've been re-deploying forces from South Ossetia and other areas of the Caucasus to Ukraine.

The Russian MoD then noted and condemned 4 drone attacks by Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh and that Azerbaijan was breaching the ceasefire that ended the war, and that Russia enforces as the peacekeeper. Azerbaijan's now criticised that statement, alleged that Armenia is in breach and called for Russia to withdraw its forces from the region.

Meanwhile Iran has said they will respond if any country in the region tries to unilaterally redraw borders.

Time for the Tartars to throw off the Slavic yoke.

Did I mention I drank vodka once with the Tatarstan Trade Representative to the US?

[DGuller]

Did I mention I drank vodka once with the Tatarstan Trade Representative to the US?

That's pretty cool.    Vodka is always nice.

[grumbler]

Time for the Tartars to throw off the Slavic yoke.

Did I mention I drank vodka once with the Tatarstan Trade Representative to the US?

I'll match you a vodka drinking contest (which I lost) with the captain of a Soviet frigate and raise you a lunch at the Smithsonian Art Gallery with the Ambassador to the US of the Republic of Djibouti (because he was astonished that I'd heard of his country). 

[OttoVonBismarck]

I strongly question the sanity of testing oneself in a drinking contest (vodka no less) versus a Soviet naval officer.

[grumbler]

I strongly question the sanity of testing oneself in a drinking contest (vodka no less) versus a Soviet naval officer.

It was a bit of a gesture of respect.   I even mentioned the defenders of Stalingrad before passing out. 

[Solmyr]

Population isn't everything, for example the United Kingdom is much closer to being a "Great Power" than say, Brazil or Indonesia, and has significantly smaller population.

Just to note here, the UK had... a bit of a head start and was fudging the competition by robbing loads of other places blind in order to become a great power. It's not like they did it solely on their own merits.