Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

Apparently the Russians hit a training area near Lviv, about 15km from the Polish border. This a day after the Russian foreign mninistry said they would consider Western weapons shipments legitimate targets once inside Ukraine, so maybe a message? "We can hit you as soon as you cross the border."

Only one who could tell Putin to stop the war or at least not to escalate it is China at this point but they're missing in action. 

[Josephus]

Apparently the Russians hit a training area near Lviv, about 15km from the Polish border. This a day after the Russian foreign mninistry said they would consider Western weapons shipments legitimate targets once inside Ukraine, so maybe a message? "We can hit you as soon as you cross the border."

Only one who could tell Putin to stop the war or at least not to escalate it is China at this point but they're missing in action. 

They're probably enjoying this.

[Legbiter]

They're probably enjoying this.

They were probably told by the Russians that this would be over in less than a week so no worries. The longer this drags on the worse the Chinese look and more associated with Russia they become.

[Sheilbh]

On China's role - this piece is fascinating. From the article description, this is from: Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor's Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor.

It was originally published in Chinese and in China by a policy thinker with official roles. The basic argument is that this is the biggest geopolitical event since WW2.

He then splits it out - in terms of predicting the war:
1 - Putin might lose and the political objectives do not appear attainable through military means.
2 - The war might escalate beyond Ukraine which would be very bad.
3 - Even if Putin wins the economic cost will not be bearable for more than a few yeaers and if it fails there is a fairly strong chance of Putin being overthrown and an end to Russia as a great power (either because of civil strife, being dissmembered, joining the West etc).

Looking at the impact on global politics he says:
1 - The US is regaining leadership of the West and the West is uniting.
2 - A new "iron curtain" is falling on Russia but it will also fall against other competitors against the West. It won't be capitalism v socialism but a "life-and-death battle between those for and against Western democracy" which will consolidate US strategy in the Pacific.
3 - The power of the West will grow - NATO will expand again; US influence outside the West will increase. They're strength in hard and soft power terms will increase.
4 - China will become more isolated and be militarily encircled "by the US, NATO, the QUAD and AUKUS".

So that gives China a choice - his argument is:
1 - China needs to cut ties with Putin ASAP (he says there's a window of one or two weeks) and needs to do so decisively.
2 - China shouldn't try to play both sides, but join the "mainstream position in the world". China has nothing to gain from this war particularly as it's always focused on the importance of national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
3 - China should try to avoid any form of sanctions. He says that expecting American focus on Europe to delay their pivot to the Pacific should not be "treated with excessive optimism" - China instead needs to "make appropriate strategic adjustments" to try and change hostile American attitudes and avoid isolation (perhaps by being helpful v Russia).
4 - China should act like a responsible global power trying to avoid WW3: "China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take concrete actions to prevent Putin's possible adventures". China's the only country in the world that can do it and without Chinese support Putin "will most likely end the war, or at least not dare to escalate the war". If China does this it will win international praise for securing world peace, which will help it prevent isolation and also improve attitudes in the US and West to avoid rapid encirclement having been tarred with the same brush and allowed a new iron curtain to fall:
https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/

[Syt]

It's a good time for murderous regimes to 'bury' bad news:

Saudi Arabia executes 81 men in one day

Saudi Arabia says it executed 81 men on Saturday - more than during the whole of last year.
The group - including seven Yemenis and one Syrian national - were convicted of "multiple heinous crimes", including terrorism, state news agency SPA said.

Full article here:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-60722057

That was yesterday. Today Austrian economy minister Margarete Schramböck meets representatives of 30 or so energy companies during an event of the Austrian Chamber of Commerce in the Saudi capital Riyadh.

[Sheilbh]

That was yesterday. Today Austrian economy minister Margarete Schramböck meets representatives of 30 or so energy companies during an event of the Austrian Chamber of Commerce in the Saudi capital Riyadh.

Johnson's doing a trip to Saudi soon too.

Sadly that is the effect of hydrocarbon politics, I think. I said earlier that one of the reasons the UK is not that exposed to Russia in terms of gas and oil is because we get that from the Gulf - particularly Qatar. I think the choice for Europe is the same - which devil do you want to dine with?

At least until we properly transition/decarbonise.

[Sheilbh]

Increasingly positive noises from Ukrainians and Russians in talks - largely being brokered by Israel. Which is positive - hopefully there's some truth to it.

[Josephus]

Increasingly positive noises from Ukrainians and Russians in talks - largely being brokered by Israel. Which is positive - hopefully there's some truth to it.

The offer is true. Zelenskyy seems for it; Putin is "considering"



https://www.timesofisrael.com/zelensky-suggests-jerusalem-host-negotiations-between-ukraine-russia/

[CountDeMoney]

Increasingly positive noises from Ukrainians and Russians in talks - largely being brokered by Israel. Which is positive - hopefully there's some truth to it.

Doesn't matter;  all Putin needs to do is last until Trump gets back in the White House, then it's weapons free when we leave NATO.  It'll be bloody, but he can do that.

[OttoVonBismarck]

That was yesterday. Today Austrian economy minister Margarete Schramböck meets representatives of 30 or so energy companies during an event of the Austrian Chamber of Commerce in the Saudi capital Riyadh.

Johnson's doing a trip to Saudi soon too.

Sadly that is the effect of hydrocarbon politics, I think. I said earlier that one of the reasons the UK is not that exposed to Russia in terms of gas and oil is because we get that from the Gulf - particularly Qatar. I think the choice for Europe is the same - which devil do you want to dine with?

At least until we properly transition/decarbonise.

I hate the Saudi royals, but you know what I like even less? The Saudi people. That's honestly the core conundrum we face with KSA, it isn't so much the oil as the fact that as brutal and outright evil as the House of Saud is, the Saudi populace is massively regressive.

MBS is an evil fuck, but at least some of the evil fuckery he's doing is doing things like arresting and having killed extreme clerics that are infuriated that women have more rights in MBS's "reformed" Saudi Arabia. It's honestly a similar situation to what we had with Iran and the Shah. The Shah was an evil, brutal leader, but a lot of the repression he was wielding was to keep extreme conservative and medieval clerics under control. Both the Shah and MBS actually value a lot of Western "norms", like women being allowed to leave their homes in anything less than chains, and shopkeepers being free from religious thugs beating them up if they don't close their stores 5x a day for payers.

The question ultimately is what is the end game for autocratic reformers in countries that have very conservative Muslim populations? The Shah proved unable to work it out, the more autocratic he got the angrier the population got and eventually he ended up facing a revolution he couldn't contain. We haven't seen anything quite like that even being suggested in Saudi Arabia, as the Sauds appear to have a much tighter rein on things, but the brutal reality is our options on who is running KSA are both bad ones--any replacement to the House of Saud would very likely look more like Iranian Theocracy than anything else.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Apparently the Russians hit a training area near Lviv, about 15km from the Polish border. This a day after the Russian foreign mninistry said they would consider Western weapons shipments legitimate targets once inside Ukraine, so maybe a message? "We can hit you as soon as you cross the border."

Yeah I think it continues to be clear -or at least it continues to be bluffed as clear- that Russia would rather have WW3 than not to subjugate Ukraine. I guess the big question if this is despite of, or rather because of, NATO making it crystal clear they would rather let Ukraine fall than start WW3.

I don't know if NATO is moving weapons through Ukraine, or just up to the border, if we're doing the latter the simple reality is it should be understood those movements would always be potential targets of military strikes. That would have been true in the Cold War. So nothing is really changing there. If Putin actually strikes military shipments on the Polish side of the border he's crossing a major red line that neither the U.S. or USSR crossed during the Cold War in similar situations--and I hope that Biden makes it clear to him that it is a red line. I actually believe we would retaliate probably much more than Putin imagines, with direct military force, if he strikes even a single target in Poland--and the real danger is more that Putin doesn't understand that than anything else.

[Legbiter]

Johnson's doing a trip to Saudi soon too.

Sadly that is the effect of hydrocarbon politics, I think. I said earlier that one of the reasons the UK is not that exposed to Russia in terms of gas and oil is because we get that from the Gulf - particularly Qatar. I think the choice for Europe is the same - which devil do you want to dine with?

At least until we properly transition/decarbonise.

Global economy is in deep shit right now. The Chinese have the Omnicron variant breaking out, that will disrupt just-in-time supply chains even more, the world's number 1 wheat exporter went to war with number 5, commodities markets are absolutely fucked, etc. Next 2 years could be rough, even if it dosen't escalate to WW III. 

[Sheilbh]

Agreed I think those are legitimate targets and they're part of the risk we should be willing to accept to keep arming Ukraine. Alternately if we're not willing to bear that risk then we should get Ukrainians to drive them into Ukraine/work on more covert ways of transferring supplies.

If Putin strikes the convoys in Poland then that's a massive escalation - and that should be communicated very clearly to Putin/Russia.

[Duque de Bragança]

Johnson's doing a trip to Saudi soon too.

Sadly that is the effect of hydrocarbon politics, I think. I said earlier that one of the reasons the UK is not that exposed to Russia in terms of gas and oil is because we get that from the Gulf - particularly Qatar. I think the choice for Europe is the same - which devil do you want to dine with?

There is also the LNG devil from Nigeria (unstable) or the US (more stable than Nigeria for now). 
Qatar would be the main new LNG provider in any case however.

At least until we properly transition/decarbonise.

That will take time.

[Maladict]

Most railway lines in Ukraine are still operational, pretty impressive.

https://www.businessinsider.com/on-board-the-mobile-command-thats-keeping-ukraines-trains-running-2022-3