Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

My tiny inner conspiracy theorist says maybe a purposeful leak.  Either of information or misinformation.

I dunno. I recall a recent case of an openly pro Russia fascist in a position of minor responsibility shockingly turning out to be a spy.
Really wouldn't be shocked if there's other worse cases.

Or how about this for a conspiracy - they did it to hurt Biden and aid republican hopes in the next election. Heil trump.

[Tamas]

Your link

Right and the US alone is committing $24billion in financial support in the chart.

The GOPtards are crying a lot about it, too.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Eh, this leak isn't as bad as some prominent leaks of recent decades (the Snowden leaks which affected operational assets was much worse, as was the Chelsea Manning leak which named U.S. local collaborators in places like Afghanistan), this is an assessment document so it is less damaging than direct operational intelligence.

Remember that just because intelligence assessments are authentic does not mean they are accurate, much of the details in these documents are in the "best guess" territory and some mirror what has been reported publicly through the traditional "confidential source" to reporter route (often a deliberate government release under the radar.)

IMO the leak is probably genuine--just like the U.S. has infiltrated Russia's war efforts, Russia has a long history of getting some level of infiltration into U.S. On top of that we also will always have people of the Snowden / Manning ilk who leak things on their own out of stupidity and bad thinking.

[Zanza]

The leak indicates that Ukraine will run out of SAM and will not be able to defend its airspace anymore. Seems like this is something Western nations could have prevented - not running out of S-300, but providing replacement. The hesistancy to provide material remains baffling. 

[Tamas]

The leak indicates that Ukraine will run out of SAM and will not be able to defend its airspace anymore. Seems like this is something Western nations could have prevented - not running out of S-300, but providing replacement. The hesistancy to provide material remains baffling. 

Have these leaks been confirmed as autentic?

[Sheilbh]

I think air defence is one of the few areas where the US has basically said they've given all they can (without impacting effectiveness of US military) - I wonder if the same's true in Europe.

I think last year Germany launched a scheme with 14 NATO allies on developing stronger European air defence but it won't deliver results for a few years. So I slightly wonder if this is just one of the areas that everyone's slightly underinvested? Not sure if it would impact air defence but I woner if the West assumes it'll have air superiority?

It feels like a strong candidate for ramping up manufacturing now both for our own defence forces and Ukraine - also (and I know nothing) it seems like it'd be quicker than manufacturing new tanks, say.

[The Minsky Moment]

Have these leaks been confirmed as autentic?

US authorities have confirmed that the leak consists of authentic documents, but that some of them have been doctored to flatter Russia and make Ukraine look worse, e.g. casualty estimates.  I don't know whether the air defense assessment falls into that category or not.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The leak indicates that Ukraine will run out of SAM and will not be able to defend its airspace anymore. Seems like this is something Western nations could have prevented - not running out of S-300, but providing replacement. The hesistancy to provide material remains baffling. 

I think that's hardly news. Perun has mentioned (most recently that I know of in his powerpoint of last week or the week before that, iirc. I think the one about the airwar so far) that at some point Ukraine will run out of SAM missiles and will need to either find a source of more S300 (and such) or will need to receive lots more western-made airdefence. A long should would be domestic production, but that's improbable.

It's also simple logic: UAF uses russian made airdefences -> it's being attacked by Russia -> it's no longer getting munitions from Russia -> it'll run out of the russian made stuff. Which ties in neatly into the Russian terror bombing campaign.

@Sheilbh: 'slightly underinvested' is putting it mildly. Most of Europe massively underinvested in defence.

[celedhring]

Have these leaks been confirmed as autentic?

US authorities have confirmed that the leak consists of authentic documents, but that some of them have been doctored to flatter Russia and make Ukraine look worse, e.g. casualty estimates.  I don't know whether the air defense assessment falls into that category or not.

If Ukraine air defence situation was so dire I'd have expected the Ukrainians to make much more noise about it than they do, like when they asked for more AA systems during the Russian terror bombing campaign.

[frunk]

If Ukraine air defence situation was so dire I'd have expected the Ukrainians to make much more noise about it than they do, like when they asked more AA systems during the Russian terror bombing campaign.

Maybe.  I could see it going the other way.  Not wanting Russia to know how dire the situation is, while behind the scenes trying to desperately get every AA asset they can.

[Josquius]

The leak indicates that Ukraine will run out of SAM and will not be able to defend its airspace anymore. Seems like this is something Western nations could have prevented - not running out of S-300, but providing replacement. The hesistancy to provide material remains baffling. 

I think that's hardly news. Perun has mentioned (most recently that I know of in his powerpoint of last week or the week before that, iirc. I think the one about the airwar so far) that at some point Ukraine will run out of SAM missiles and will need to either find a source of more S300 (and such) or will need to receive lots more western-made airdefence. A long should would be domestic production, but that's improbable.

It's also simple logic: UAF uses russian made airdefences -> it's being attacked by Russia -> it's no longer getting munitions from Russia -> it'll run out of the russian made stuff. Which ties in neatly into the Russian terror bombing campaign.

@Sheilbh: 'slightly underinvested' is putting it mildly. Most of Europe massively underinvested in defence.

Recent events in Ukraine show this to not be quite as true as people have been saying for a while.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

true enough.
Perun especially mentioned that it is something that needs to be taken into account. And that it would be very problematic if it happened.
He also said, repeatedly over the last few months iirc, that it hasn't come to pass (yet) and that Kiev is taking care to make sure it doesn't happen.

But at some point the Russians stuff will run out. Which is why the west must make sure there's sufficient abundant replacement material available.

But given what we know about the russians -which is been on display with the leaked documents they then tampered with: Russia seems to need a lot of copium.
I wonder at what point they'll overdose on that

[Legbiter]

The leak indicates that Ukraine will run out of SAM and will not be able to defend its airspace anymore. Seems like this is something Western nations could have prevented - not running out of S-300, but providing replacement. The hesistancy to provide material remains baffling. 

Bulgaria and Greece are probably quietly supplying some S-300s. Egypt has a ton as well. I read recently the US and Ukraine are working on mounting Sea Sparrow missiles onto BUK launchers.  Ukraine also needs radar-guided ack-ack guns to shoot down those cheap disposable drones over the front since AA missiles are disastrously expensive and few in numbers compared to them.

[Threviel]

SAMs is the big medium term problem facing Ukraine. Western militaries are geared towards air superiority through air superiority whilst Soviet style militaries focused on air denial through SAMs very much simplified.

So the west just doesn't have lots of that stuff since we don't need it and since we don't have it there isn't very much to give. It's kind of how we don't have very much maxims to give either, they are more or less useless for a western military. And it's not something we can build in a few months or even years, we have to jury rig stuff or send the hilariously expensive systems like patriot.

[grumbler]

The West is underinvested in SAMs in large part because they are just so damned expensive.  A Patriot missile costs considerably more (in constant dollars) than a B-24 or Lancaster bomber did in WW2, and it's a one-use airframe.  Even Evolved Sea Sparrow is about the cost of those big bombers.