Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Berkut]

Putin is preparing a challenge to test Biden's resolve and perhaps to exploit the divisions within NATO that were created or worsened by his  chief asset in the West over the last four years.

yes, that.  He's just testing NATO's resolve.  Well, the US, mostly.   If all the US does is protest, he'll march in his troops. If NATO move assets over there to strenghten its position, he will back off, not silently, but he will back off.

I don't know how far Putin will go, but I definitely agree this is a test of Biden and US resolve.

[mongers]

Apparently the snow still hasn't finished melting, so the ground is going to be a sea of mud for a few more weeks; so rumours are nothing will happen till start of May. 

[Sheilbh]

Putin is preparing a challenge to test Biden's resolve and perhaps to exploit the divisions within NATO that were created or worsened by his  chief asset in the West over the last four years.

Yeah - I'd also not be surprised at a move against Taiwan. Possibly separately or at the same time.

I would think aspects of the issues are Ukraine worried about Russia's intentions if Russian separatists are recruiting people in eastern Ukraine. Russia could be posturing with their troops to support the Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine whether Russia actually invades or not. It shouldn't be any surprise given the actions of Russia for a while now.

There's no posturing. Russian troops are already in Ukraine and have been for the past 5 years.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Yeah - I'd also not be surprised at a move against Taiwan. Possibly separately or at the same time.

if so, and depending on how serious they want to play it: strikes against the Suez and Panama canals. We've seen now how easy it is to block at least one of them

[Tonitrus]

Putin is preparing a challenge to test Biden's resolve and perhaps to exploit the divisions within NATO that were created or worsened by his  chief asset in the West over the last four years.

Yeah - I'd also not be surprised at a move against Taiwan. Possibly separately or at the same time.

I would think aspects of the issues are Ukraine worried about Russia's intentions if Russian separatists are recruiting people in eastern Ukraine. Russia could be posturing with their troops to support the Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine whether Russia actually invades or not. It shouldn't be any surprise given the actions of Russia for a while now.

There's no posturing. Russian troops are already in Ukraine and have been for the past 5 years.

In many ways, it is very much a similar scenario as happened in Georgia circa 2008.  Just the question of whether or not Russia will go as far in Ukraine as it did when the Georgian government tried asserting itself in its own breakaway territories. 

Perhaps the big difference is Russia gambled correctly that the West wouldn't do anything in 2008, and won a similar bet again with the Crimea.

Eastern Ukraine is much higher stakes, however.

[jimmy olsen]

Putin is preparing a challenge to test Biden's resolve and perhaps to exploit the divisions within NATO that were created or worsened by his  chief asset in the West over the last four years.

yes, that.  He's just testing NATO's resolve.  Well, the US, mostly.   If all the US does is protest, he'll march in his troops. If NATO move assets over there to strenghten its position, he will back off, not silently, but he will back off.

So what if the US and NATO moves assets into Poland? It's not going to move them into the Ukraine and fight him there, so I don't see why he would back off.

[Jacob]

Yeah - I'd also not be surprised at a move against Taiwan. Possibly separately or at the same time.

I wouldn't be surprised given the general attitude of Xi's CCP, but in terms of maintaining their hold on power it's one of the riskier moves they can make. Obviously if they pull it off at little cost, relatively speaking, it'll be great for them. But if things don't go smoothly that can a) embolden different cliques within the CCP to oust the current power holders and b) put serious dents into the credibility of the party with the population.

I mean, I have no doubt there's a constituency within the CCP apparatus that's highly confident that they can pull it off and have everyone "home by Lunar New Year" or whatever, but technology and rhetoric notwithstanding the PLA does not have much of a track record with large scale operations. So it'd be a gamble.

[viper37]

Putin is preparing a challenge to test Biden's resolve and perhaps to exploit the divisions within NATO that were created or worsened by his  chief asset in the West over the last four years.

yes, that.  He's just testing NATO's resolve.  Well, the US, mostly.   If all the US does is protest, he'll march in his troops. If NATO move assets over there to strenghten its position, he will back off, not silently, but he will back off.

So what if the US and NATO moves assets into Poland? It's not going to move them into the Ukraine and fight him there, so I don't see why he would back off.

Putin does not want a confrontation with NATO, he's not ready, and he won't gamble too far. If NATO moves assets to Poland and strongly signals that invading Ukraine means retaliation, then he will back off, eventually.

[DGuller]

Many of history's wars started because a game of chicken ended in a tie.  If defending your interests were as easy as always signaling strength, diplomacy would be easy.

[Jacob]

Many of history's wars started because a game of chicken ended in a tie.  If defending your interests were as easy as always signaling strength, diplomacy would be easy.

... for the strong, maybe.

[DGuller]

Many of history's wars started because a game of chicken ended in a tie.  If defending your interests were as easy as always signaling strength, diplomacy would be easy.

... for the strong, maybe.

Not even then.  Just because you're strong doesn't mean you have resolve, even the strong countries don't want to get snared in every conflict, that's a good way to stop being strong.

[Jacob]

Yeah okay that's fair.

[Zoupa]

NATO is not going to war over eastern Ukraine. Putin will have a new Ossetia/Abkhazia/Transnistria to play with.

[Legbiter]

The Baltics are in NATO, too much bother.  Ukraine is perfect. Close by for logistics. Taking some Arctic tundra from Finland might be doable but the cost would be annoying. Russia could theoretically seize Gotland from Sweden via amphibious assault. Keeping it might be tricky though. Any other non-NATO countries close by that would make sense to beat up?

[Duque de Bragança]

Belarus if Lukashenko is either replaced by a pro-West regime, or, after weathering the current storm, if he moves too much out of Moscow's orbit.

Depends on the state of the Belarus armed forces though. Are they in better shape, better organized (territorial defense units quicker to mobilise than regular conscripts vs green men) than Ukrainian forces in 2014?