Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Larch]

So, I read some comments about his speech that he's basically saying it went all downhill with Lenin, who restructured Russia, eventually leading to its splintering into the breakaway republics in early 90s?

Yeah, one of his many gripes was regarding how the Communists, at the beginning of the Soviet Union, allowed historically (in his mind) Russian territories to gain autonomy and eventually break away from Mother Russia.

Edit: This btw includes the whole of Ukraine, which he considers "a geopolitical fiction created by Stalin in the 1920s".

[Tamas]

Goddamit the news switched to Boris F Johnson. Where's a live link to Putin translated to English?

EDIT: found it https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-live-updates-satellite-images-show-new-russia-deployments-as-biden-and-putin-summit-mooted-12541713

Now he is basically declaring Ukraine a failed state of oligarchs with a pretend democracy.

[Sheilbh]

I find it interesting that Putin first called France and Germany to tell them about recognizing the separatists, before informing his nation. What was the idea? Gauging their immediate reaction to help determine what to put into his speech?

Minsk?

I'm not sure this is de-escalatory at all. It depends on if he means those "republics" as they are now or the actual borders of Donetsk and Luhansk which includes rather a lot more Ukrainian territory. In  addition it seems if you recognise them, we move from little green men to formal Russian support so the next "provocation" from Ukraine into those regions will hit a tripwire of Russian troops. I hope that's wrong.

[Syt]

Putin is now saying that Russia was "robbed" when the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991.

This is something he has spoken about before - he once called the collapse of the bloc a "geopolitical catastrophe".

[The Larch]

I find it interesting that Putin first called France and Germany to tell them about recognizing the separatists, before informing his nation. What was the idea? Gauging their immediate reaction to help determine what to put into his speech?

Minsk?

I'm not sure this is de-escalatory at all. It depends on if he means those "republics" as they are now or the actual borders of Donetsk and Luhansk which includes rather a lot more Ukrainian territory. In  addition it seems if you recognise them, we move from little green men to formal Russian support so the next "provocation" from Ukraine into those regions will hit a tripwire of Russian troops. I hope that's wrong.

It'd mean exchanging little green men for Russian peacekeepers, like those in Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Transnistria.

[Berkut]

And once again, all of this has nothing to do with history.

He is a thug who wants to dominate his neighbors. That is what is happening.

The rest is just posturing.

[The Brain]

And once again, all of this has nothing to do with history.

He is a thug who wants to dominate his neighbors. That is what is happening.

The rest is just posturing.

Bernie was full of shit?

[Syt]

I find it interesting that Putin first called France and Germany to tell them about recognizing the separatists, before informing his nation. What was the idea? Gauging their immediate reaction to help determine what to put into his speech?

Minsk?

I'm not sure this is de-escalatory at all. It depends on if he means those "republics" as they are now or the actual borders of Donetsk and Luhansk which includes rather a lot more Ukrainian territory. In  addition it seems if you recognise them, we move from little green men to formal Russian support so the next "provocation" from Ukraine into those regions will hit a tripwire of Russian troops. I hope that's wrong.

Possibly "full protection" and, who knows, creating a "security buffer", so that the poor, beleaguered people can live in peace under the gentle protective hand of Uncle Vlad.

[Sheilbh]

It'd mean exchanging little green men for Russian peacekeepers, like those in Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Transnistria.

Yeah - but he's not ranting on TV about how Georgia and Moldova aren't real countries. That they and Russia are the same and part of an inseparable cultural space etc.

Although, just to note that while I think they are safe, the Baltic countries also used that part of the Soviet constitution to become independent.

Edit: Also feel like we're getting a taster of what Macron had in their first meeting when he said Putin was obsessed with history and kept going through their list of grievances. Plus this line is rather sinister about Ukrainian leaders "we know their names and we will find them and bring them to justice." This feels like a hell of a prologue to announcing you're recognising the "republics".

[Syt]

And once again, all of this has nothing to do with history.

He is a thug who wants to dominate his neighbors. That is what is happening.

The rest is just posturing.

I think it has insofar to do with history as he's an irredentist at heart who believes certain currently independent countries are part of Russia and need to be reclaimed or at the very least should be closely aligned with Russia. But yes, he's also a thug and kleptocrat.

[Berkut]

It'd mean exchanging little green men for Russian peacekeepers, like those in Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Transnistria.

Yeah - but he's not ranting on TV about how Georgia and Moldova aren't real countries. That they and Russia are the same and part of an inseparable cultural space etc.

Although, just to note that while I think they are safe, the Baltic countries also used that part of the Soviet constitution to become independent.

Why would you think they are safe?

I don't think there is any doubt that if this is allowed to stand, there will be another to follow.

The justification will adjust a bit, just like this one is a little different from Georgia, but it will most certainly not stop. Because again, this has nothing to do with history.

[Sheilbh]

Why would you think they are safe?

Because they're in NATO and benefits from a mutual defence pact with the US.

I don't think there is any doubt that if this is allowed to stand, there will be another to follow.

Probably Moldova. Or provocations in the West Balkans.

[Syt]

From the BBC ticker:

Putin has now moved on to criticising the Ukrainian authorities.

He called the events of 2014 – which saw protesters topple Ukraine's pro-Russian president – a "coup".

Putin says, without providing evidence, that Ukraine was being controlled from the "outside".

[Tamas]

We are now on to how Ukraine is planning an attack on Russia and developing tactical nuclear weapons, and in close cooperation with NATO, proof of which are the NATO troops deployed to Europe since 2021.

[The Brain]

Why would you think they are safe?

Because they're in NATO and benefits from a mutual defence pact with the US.

I don't think there is any doubt that if this is allowed to stand, there will be another to follow.

Probably Moldova. Or provocations in the West Balkans.

My impression is that many people in NATO would grasp at fig leaves to avoid going to war against Russia over "local ethnic Russian self defense forces fighting to stop an ongoing genocide against the oppressed Russian populations of the Baltic countries". Bernie will remind people of the "complex history".