Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

Actually Zhirinovsky kinda' got the date right, apparently, in a speech in December:

https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1495474850458226689?s=20&t=TWKEF78WtJDiJEM_FzZrdA

[Zoupa]

If we're back to cold war tactics, then the West needs to put boots on the ground in Ukraine. The tripwire works both ways.

As to the breakaway republics, it's been 8 years and Ukraine hasn't really gained ground. Realistically those regions were effectively Russia. The recognition from Putin changes nothing on the ground. Ukraine is now split, like Korea and Germany back in the day. I think the difference is that the folks in the breakaway regions see themselves as Russian, and those that don't either already left or will leave soon.

The incentive for Ukraine to fight for those regions has diminished.

[Zoupa]

Btw, these are the territories claimed by the breakaway republics:

[The Brain]

"Ukraine has never had its own authentic statehood. There has never been a sustainable statehood in Ukraine," he said.

The Rus state wasn't sustainable? OK Muscovite.

[Josquius]

 

Btw, these are the territories claimed by the breakaway republics

How does that work? When they're each specifically x oblast Republic.
Incidentally always thought it weird they are 2. What's with that?

Putin is 69. Is he starting to feel the pinch of age and worrying that he might run out of time to restore his gang Mother Russia to to her rightful place in the world?

At the start of this that was Mark Galeotti's theory for why he would invade Ukraine (which he didn't think was likely). Putin's running out of time, Russia's running out of time, there's growing internal opposition/dissatisfaction. Restoring Ukraine to its rightful place within Russia changes the history books about Putin from the guy who took over, stabilised things and then let them drift. He'd be a truly historic figure - and this is a pretty terrifying example of how much a "great man" can matter.

. So what you're saying is : kill Putin.

[The Larch]

Btw, these are the territories claimed by the breakaway republics:

Isn't that the whole "Novorossya" area? I doubt the two breakways are that bold, they don't even fully control the regions they're named after.

[Sheilbh]

On sanctions interesting note picked up by some EU reporters. The Irish statement has a last line: "Ireland supports a clear and strong EU response, including additional sanctions measures." Apparently some other countries have a similar line, others don't which probably gives a hint of where everyone is (and I imagine Orban hasn't released a statement ).

Edit: And the order's formal now for Russian troops to move in as "peacekeepers" - part of the declaration recognising the "republics".

Edit: Separately - I've not seen nything give quite such a vivid impression of that speech as the Reuters wire (screenshot of not everything)

[Crazy_Ivan80]

so this is what 1938 and 1939 felt like from outside Germany and the USSR.

[The Brain]

Steiner's sanctions will save us.

[Syt]

Austrian foreign minister and former part time chancellor Schallenberg said yesterday that Austria would stand with Ukraine, because "We experienced first hand in 1938 what it's like to be left alone."

Critics accused him of perpetuating the "Austria was Hitler's first victim" myth. Schallenberg called it a misunderstanding and that he was thinking of anti-Anschluss Austrians who failed to mobilize international support (only Mexico lodged a formal protest against Anschluss with the League of Nations).

[Syt]

https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1495867562504212490

Carl Bildt
@carlbildt

If I compare with his speech in March 2014 when he 🇷🇺 annexed Crimea this was far more rambling, all-over-the-place and unhinged. And also more dangerous. Now he questions the very existence of 🇺🇦 as a nation. It's a man with immense power who's lost contact with reality.

[The Brain]

I've seen Carl Bildt in the flesh.

[Syt]

Germany and France condemn 'blatant breach of international law'

We've also got reaction from French President Emmanuel Macron and the Germany foreign ministry to Russia's recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock says the decision by Russia "'represents a blatant breach of international law and a heavy blow against all diplomatic efforts for a peaceful settlement and a political solution to the current conflict".

She says years of diplomatic efforts have been "destroyed deliberately and without apparent reason".

"We demand that Russia reverses its decision and returns to the path of diplomatic and political conflict resolution," she says.

A statement from Macron's office says: "It is clearly a unilateral violation of international commitments by Russia and a breach of Ukraine's sovereignty."

The French president is asking for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council and the implementation of targeted sanctions by European countries, the statement says.

[Valmy]

Um isn't Russia on the UNSC? Seems like a big barrier to UN led actions in response.

Ok I was very wrong. I thought Russia was smart and cynical. Now they seem paranoid and crazy.

[Jacob]

Um isn't Russia on the UNSC? Seems like a big barrier to UN led actions in response.

Yes, but it'll be worthwhile to see what - say - China's response is.

Ok I was very wrong. I thought Russia was smart and cynical. Now they seem paranoid and crazy.

Yeah... it looks like someone's been hanging out on the EUOT boards too much and has bought into the simplicity of strategy simulations.