Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[grumbler]

They've repeatedly chosen the incompetence narrative over "the Ukrainians are responsible".

See:
Moskva sinking.
Engels AFB strike.
Saky AFB strike.

Now for the A-50, the propagandists are spinning russian air defense commanders as the culprit.

The Russians blamed Ukraine for the attacks on Moskva and Engels.  Saky airbase they blamed on an accident.

[grumbler]

You're thinking of the russians as a normal country, where evidence and facts matter. They don't. The "russians are incompetent" is much more palatable to internal consumption than those stupid salo-eating khokhol peasants did this.

Sometimes for truly non-deniable facts like the Kerch bridge bombing, they'll instead blame the Brits or the CIA, but never the Ukrainians.

The Russians accused Ukraine of terrorism in the Kerch Bridge blast.

[Tonitrus]

You're thinking of the russians as a normal country, where evidence and facts matter. They don't. The "russians are incompetent" is much more palatable to internal consumption than those stupid salo-eating khokhol peasants did this.

Sometimes for truly non-deniable facts like the Kerch bridge bombing, they'll instead blame the Brits or the CIA, but never the Ukrainians.

The Russians accused Ukraine of terrorism in the Kerch Bridge blast.

And also to form...prosecute and jail some poor mid-level schmuck...

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/01/16/russian-officer-jailed-6-years-for-crimea-bridge-drone-defense-failure-a83742

[Tamas]

Should go to the Russian politics thread really but I am too lazy to dig it up. I only have Hungarian sources but apparently as of the start of this year, following a decision of the Moscow city council, all doctors except for dentist have to record and upload to a central server all discussions with patients. The doctor is to press record when the patient enters the room and can't stop the recording.

The council ensured everyone that neither the doctor nor the patient will be identifiable in the recordings which will be deleted after a month, but this of course cannot possibly be true since then there's no point to the whole thing.

The KGB will love this treasure trove, though, I am sure.

[Josquius]

That's messed up. And bizare to see it on a local level.
Though I guess that's the core of the empire where control has to be strictly maintained.


Apparently last week was a big protest of 10k folks in Bashkorstan over the arrest of a guy who sounds bizare - an pro environment, regionalist, anti immigrant nutter activist.

[Tamas]

That's messed up. And bizare to see it on a local level.
Though I guess that's the core of the empire where control has to be strictly maintained.


Apparently last week was a big protest of 10k folks in Bashkorstan over the arrest of a guy who sounds bizare - an pro environment, regionalist, anti immigrant nutter activist.

Those protest are marked as potentially important (as a turning point) both by this Russian exile I keep referring to, and this Russian-born philosopher(?) guy Vlad Vrexler whom Youtube recommended and who rambles on about Russia stuff.

By the way the exile guy claims there have been way more than usual and widespread issues with heating systems and the like in Russia, there's also allegedly a growing shortage and/or inflation of basic food stuff such as eggs and chicken. The latter even Putin commented on apparently, saying that it's a signed of growing living standards that there was so much demand for chicken that Russia didn't prepare with sufficient imports. lol, the surefire sign of luxury everywhere: eating more chicken.

[The Minsky Moment]

The latter even Putin commented on apparently, saying that it's a signed of growing living standards that there was so much demand for chicken that Russia didn't prepare with sufficient imports.

Welcome back to the Brezhnev era.

We are rich enough now for a chicken in every pot, if only the stores carried chickens and pots.

[Zoupa]

This man's name is Oleg Babii.



In August 2023, he set out on foot, with his team of saboteurs, from the Ukrainian border to the Soltsy airfield in Novgorod. 600 km on foot.



They reached the airfield on August 22nd, destroyed one long-range Tu-22 bomber and disabled 2 more.



His team got into a shootout as they were exfiltrating. He stayed behind to cover their escape.

He had a 1-year old daughter.

[Jacob]

A hero.

[Barrister]

Heroiam slava.

[Tamas]

After Turkey's acceptance only Hungary remains to ratify Sweden's NATO membership. Currently there's a hilarious pantomime going on where Orban is pretending he is totally all for it but the Fidesz faction of MPs refuse to agree. He went to a meeting to "convince them" and now they are "debating it"

[Jacob]

Oh gosh! I wonder if Orban can persuade the obstreperous MPs from his party? If only he had a way to make them toe the line....

[Josquius]

Random possible fake news but intriguing post of the day

THE IL-76 SAGA IS BEGINNING TO SMELL LIKE AN INTEL OPERATION

SYNOPSIS: an Il-76 transport plan takes off, travels towards its destination and before it lands a visible external explosion detonated and brought it down.
Russia claims it was carrying Ukrainian POW transferees.
Russia tried to spin it that western anti-air systems were responsible. Nobody bought that line.
Signals intelligence and local chatter say that only five bodies were recovered from the site, that the plane was empty and only the crew bodies were removed to the local morgue. No attempt to call in any backup morgue services or ambulances was made.
Additional information from western intelligence sources said the aircraft was due to transport senior military personnel but a last minute call from the FSB demanded they not board it. The flight went ahead empty. While that may seem odd, it's not in the least bit surprising as the flight was a scheduled regular military transport and was expected at its destination for its next mission. This regularity may have been its weakness - and allowed Ukrainian intelligence to make an attempt on senior officers once they discovered they were due to fly.
It has to be emphasised that despite Russian claims, absolutely none of the post-crash response suggests there was anyone but the crew on board.
So it's all a little strange. The only conclusion possible is Ukrainian or Russian anti-government agents knew the flight would have senior people aboard. Somehow the FSB got wind of it (that is their job after all), but probably not how it would happen. They issued a warning, target escaped, but the action went ahead and the plane was brought down. That's the story my intel-savvy colleagues are sticking with until they find out anything different.
The basis for their confidence is the chronically leaky Russian telephone network and the general chatter from the local area.
So intel op or another story too outlandish to imagine? Will we ever really know?

[Jacob]

I always find these videos pretty interesting:

On Russia vs NATO

TLDW: There's a real risk of a Russian attack on NATO. The aim of that attack will not be to take territory (and trigger an all out confrontation). It will be to engineer a situation that increases the chance of NATO countries deciding that it's not worth responding, to undermine and essentially destroy NATO (or deescalate if that doesn't happen).

[Crazy_Ivan80]

that peacedivident is turning out to be the dumbest thing the west may have done since declaring "peace in our time"