Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

Apparently Russia shot down one of their own AWACS planes. One of only 4 they own.

Yes. I didn't blame the weapon manufacturers, they are not in it for charity. If they are to produce something they need orders and contracts, the blame for that not happening is on our politicians.

If the money had been ponied up Ukraine would be drowning in military gear right now, but lots of politicians don't want to pony up and the public will is apparently not strong enough to force the issue.

By the same token though, especially in light of covid and the PPE shit, I can see where the governments wouldn't want to be totally ripped off and pay 10 times what they should be to make the weapons manufacturers shareholders happy.

However I suspect neither side is demanding the entire burden and rather they're just taking forever negotiating where exactly the draw the line in the middle- which is something governments should swallow considering the emergency.

[Tamas]

I thought Ukraine claimed the awacs kill?

[Grey Fox]

Yes, they did.

[Josquius]

Its good PR for both sides to say Ukraine did it.

From what I've read Ukraine possibly killed another command and control plane, a less advanced one, whilst this AWACs from its position and the whole situation....a patriot is all that could have knocked it down but it was nowhere near Ukrainian patriot range.
The theory I'm seeing is it triggered the Kerch bridge's defences.

[Barrister]

Its good PR for both sides to say Ukraine did it.

From what I've read Ukraine possibly killed another command and control plane, a less advanced one, whilst this AWACs from its position and the whole situation....a patriot is all that could have knocked it down but it was nowhere near Ukrainian patriot range.
The theory I'm seeing is it triggered the Kerch bridge's defences.

Most people figure the Russians would rather say the AWACs-type plane was shot down in an accident, rather than admit the Ukrainians have that capability.

[Grey Fox]

Like the Moskva, it's a smoking incident.

Gotta keep the pilots in the air, not scared and at the base.

[Tamas]

Its good PR for both sides to say Ukraine did it.

From what I've read Ukraine possibly killed another command and control plane, a less advanced one, whilst this AWACs from its position and the whole situation....a patriot is all that could have knocked it down but it was nowhere near Ukrainian patriot range.
The theory I'm seeing is it triggered the Kerch bridge's defences.

Most people figure the Russians would rather say the AWACs-type plane was shot down in an accident, rather than admit the Ukrainians have that capability.

Yep.

[Josquius]

Its good PR for both sides to say Ukraine did it.

From what I've read Ukraine possibly killed another command and control plane, a less advanced one, whilst this AWACs from its position and the whole situation....a patriot is all that could have knocked it down but it was nowhere near Ukrainian patriot range.
The theory I'm seeing is it triggered the Kerch bridge's defences.

Most people figure the Russians would rather say the AWACs-type plane was shot down in an accident, rather than admit the Ukrainians have that capability.

It's known ukraine has patriots. And Ukraine being dangerous is necessary to sell the defensive war.
Also helps the commanders in pushing for more resources to paint Ukraine as being stronger.

[Barrister]

It's known ukraine has patriots. And Ukraine being dangerous is necessary to sell the defensive war.
Also helps the commanders in pushing for more resources to paint Ukraine as being stronger.

But that is not how Russia has tried to portray this war.

Russia's victory is inevitable.  It's just a matter of time - Western aid will collapse.  The West is afraid of Russia.  Russia is great military power.  They never talk about the number of casualties so far.  They never displayed wounded or disabled soldiers as a way of trying to rally the nation.

If the Russian propaganda shows Ukraine as strong, that inevitably means that Russia is weak.  And Putin can never allow that.

[Josquius]

It's known ukraine has patriots. And Ukraine being dangerous is necessary to sell the defensive war.
Also helps the commanders in pushing for more resources to paint Ukraine as being stronger.

But that is not how Russia has tried to portray this war.

Russia's victory is inevitable.  It's just a matter of time - Western aid will collapse.  The West is afraid of Russia.  Russia is great military power.  They never talk about the number of casualties so far.  They never displayed wounded or disabled soldiers as a way of trying to rally the nation.

If the Russian propaganda shows Ukraine as strong, that inevitably means that Russia is weak.  And Putin can never allow that.

I'm not so sure there. The vibes I've been getting is it's Russia vs NATO (mostly via Ukrainian puppets they've armed up though obviously with western special forces amongst them) .
Ukraine is obviously weak and yearning to be safely united with Russia again.
But NATO can hurt Russia a bit so it's vital it defends itself.

They're not going to advertise this of course. But the west did it beats we shot down our own plane if it comes to it.

[grumbler]

Most people figure the Russians would rather say the AWACs-type plane was shot down in an accident, rather than admit the Ukrainians have that capability.

Most people sound like they don't know what they are talking about.  The Russians would much rather say that the enemy has an unexpected capability (capabilities can be countered) than admit that their own side is so incompetent that it shoots down its own aircraft (incompetence cannot be countered).  The only way they'd pin this on their own side is if there had been some public executions.

[Zoupa]

They've repeatedly chosen the incompetence narrative over "the Ukrainians are responsible".

See:
Moskva sinking.
Engels AFB strike.
Saky AFB strike.

Now for the A-50, the propagandists are spinning russian air defense commanders as the culprit.

[Zoupa]

You're thinking of the russians as a normal country, where evidence and facts matter. They don't. The "russians are incompetent" is much more palatable to internal consumption than those stupid salo-eating khokhol peasants did this.

Sometimes for truly non-deniable facts like the Kerch bridge bombing, they'll instead blame the Brits or the CIA, but never the Ukrainians.

[The Minsky Moment]

There is a long history of blaming external disaster on incompetence or internal treachery rather than crediting an adversary.   And public executions aren't really Putin's style.  Guys mysteriously disappearing or self-defenestrating weeks or months later is more his game.  His terror is more insidious and psychological, and designed to maintain the illusion of republican normality on the surface.

[Barrister]

Most people figure the Russians would rather say the AWACs-type plane was shot down in an accident, rather than admit the Ukrainians have that capability.

Most people sound like they don't know what they are talking about.  The Russians would much rather say that the enemy has an unexpected capability (capabilities can be countered) than admit that their own side is so incompetent that it shoots down its own aircraft (incompetence cannot be countered).  The only way they'd pin this on their own side is if there had been some public executions.

You can make a decent argument for why the Russians should do that.

But in practice the Russians seemingly will do anything other than give credit or agency to Ukrainians for anything.

Zoupa and Minsky give good examples of when the Russians have done this.