Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[celedhring]

I still find the Kerch bombing really odd. The whole suicide bombing doesn't really fit Ukrainian M.O., but who knows.

Has anyone but Russia claimed it was suicide bombing?

Seen a few western experts say that the explosion damage suggests it was indeed a truck bomb.

[Josquius]

I still find the Kerch bombing really odd. The whole suicide bombing doesn't really fit Ukrainian M.O., but who knows.

Has anyone but Russia claimed it was suicide bombing?

Seen a few western experts say that the explosion damage suggests it was indeed a truck bomb.

Not necessarily the same as a suicide bomb.

And I'm sure I recall experts saying the way the explosion happened doesn't line up with this.

[Barrister]

Not necessarily the same as a suicide bomb.

And I'm sure I recall experts saying the way the explosion happened doesn't line up with this.

Truck bomb doesn't really line up with how both the road bridge, and the train bridge, were hit at the same time.

[celedhring]

Not necessarily the same as a suicide bomb.

And I'm sure I recall experts saying the way the explosion happened doesn't line up with this.

Truck bomb doesn't really line up with how both the road bridge, and the train bridge, were hit at the same time.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1579480666282287104

[OttoVonBismarck]

Putin has agreed to a cease fire in the past--see the Minsk ceasefire agreement in 2015. It was obvious at that point his potential gains in the east had hit their limit without a true invasion, so he decided to freeze the conflict. Politically I think it is much harder to sell that sort of result now, because of the fact this has escalated to such a large scale war, but it is at least one potential off ramp.

Russia is in a weird place, it isn't close to a collapse or anything, but while there is lots of talk of "waiting out" the West, the problem is the conflict right now isn't in a holding pattern that is that great for Russia. They are having to sustain tons of equipment and human losses just to hold on to what they have (and they are still losing some ground), this isn't a conflict that each ticking day, is doing nothing to Russia. We actually know with some of the important military equipment they are well past the point of the current intensity of the conflict not being sustainable long term without degrading Russia's overall strategic capabilities. I think at the current level of Western support for Ukraine, we likely at some point in the next 3 to 6 months hit the extent of how far they can push back Russian lines. At that point where do we go? If Russia is not able to sustain another significant, successful offensive, it will be hard to imagine they don't look for a way to at least simmer the conflict down to a level that isn't paupering their entire military.

[OttoVonBismarck]

FWIW if Putin ends up being pushed out of power or whatever, I don't see the result being like a reformer per se, at least of the core autocracy. My guess is we might see the emergence of a Deng like figure--someone who has no interest in changing Russia into a Western style democracy, but who wants to focus on economic and internal development on the premise that this is really the way forward for national strength. Something we've talked about some, but which I think is often kinda not discussed heavily by pundits etc is it isn't just Putin's invasion that is going badly, it is the entire premise of it. Even if this had gone according to plan, grabbing more land really doesn't make Russia any more powerful in a strategic sense. Particularly not when doing so isolates you from most international organizations and degrades your economy's ability to modernize. If Putin had spent the last 20 years trying to promote the modernization and sophistication of the Russian economy, Russia would be far more powerful than it is today. Instead he has spent that time engaging in corrupt cronyism and quixotic land acquisition adventurism based on an emotional nostalgia for the Russian Empire.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5WztvkeMLc&ab_channel=RenewDemocracyInitiative

a nice one. With Gen. Ben Hodges.

[Tamas]

I am hoping this is fake, Russian state TV celebrating the missile strikes on civilians, even has a snapshot of the playground hit and pixelated snapshot of civilians being put into a grave hole

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1579880185146781696?s=20&t=lhV1gNWc_WLTX1UITdQfAg

[Admiral Yi]

Not necessarily the same as a suicide bomb.

And I'm sure I recall experts saying the way the explosion happened doesn't line up with this.

A non suicide truck bomb generally means you park the truck, walk away, and detonate it remotely or with a timer.  We don't see anything like that on the video.

Neither do we see the James Bond type where the driver leaps out of the door at the last second.

[Berkut]

FWIW if Putin ends up being pushed out of power or whatever, I don't see the result being like a reformer per se, at least of the core autocracy. My guess is we might see the emergence of a Deng like figure--someone who has no interest in changing Russia into a Western style democracy, but who wants to focus on economic and internal development on the premise that this is really the way forward for national strength. Something we've talked about some, but which I think is often kinda not discussed heavily by pundits etc is it isn't just Putin's invasion that is going badly, it is the entire premise of it. Even if this had gone according to plan, grabbing more land really doesn't make Russia any more powerful in a strategic sense. Particularly not when doing so isolates you from most international organizations and degrades your economy's ability to modernize. If Putin had spent the last 20 years trying to promote the modernization and sophistication of the Russian economy, Russia would be far more powerful than it is today. Instead he has spent that time engaging in corrupt cronyism and quixotic land acquisition adventurism based on an emotional nostalgia for the Russian Empire.

You've summarized my thinking very nicely.

It's not just that Putin is an idiot for trying to take over Ukraine, it is that he is an idiot because he thinks taking over Ukraine makes any sense to begin with - that there is really some kind of USSR/NATO direct power struggle still going on that he needs to win, or at least fight to a draw.

Whoever replaces him, assuming someone does, doesn't need to be a pro-western liberal democracy advocate (although of course that would be nice, and pretty great for Russia as well), but even someone as nationalistic as Putin could at least in theory understand that the way to contest with Europe and the West is not by building tanks and planes (which you cannot afford to do anyway, and you lack the technical capability to succeed on even if you could afford them), but by turning Russia into a smaller version of China or something like that. A working economic and political system designed to leverage the global free market, and maybe even exploit the liberal versions of that markets vulnerabilities.

Russia even has a ready made means of doing that, and apparently rather willing and even eager victimes in Europe! Germany was ready to prostrate themself to Russian natural gas, all Russia would have to do is not fucking invade their neighbors like they think it is still 1939.

[Jacob]

A non suicide truck bomb generally means you park the truck, walk away, and detonate it remotely or with a timer.  We don't see anything like that on the video.

Neither do we see the James Bond type where the driver leaps out of the door at the last second.

How would you classify it if the driver was unaware that his truck would blow up?

[Barrister]

It's not just that Putin is an idiot for trying to take over Ukraine, it is that he is an idiot because he thinks taking over Ukraine makes any sense to begin with - that there is really some kind of USSR/NATO direct power struggle still going on that he needs to win, or at least fight to a draw.

A free and independent Ukraine did pose a risk to Putin though.

Putin and his propogandists can push the lie that democracy might be okay for the West, but that it's contrary to Russian/slavic culture that needs a firm leader.

But a country right on your doorstep that is free and prosperous and where everyone speaks Russian shows that to be a lie.

[Josquius]

I've heard Russias invasion of Ukraine makes sense if you think of Russia as less like a normal country and more like an oil and gas cartel that holds a state.

[Admiral Yi]

How would you classify it if the driver was unaware that his truck would blow up?

A sucker play.  Whatever you call it that doesn't seem like something the Ukes would do.

[Josquius]

How would you classify it if the driver was unaware that his truck would blow up?

A sucker play.  Whatever you call it that doesn't seem like something the Ukes would do.

Seems more likely than a suicide bomb to me. Planting explosives on a vehicle supporting the invasion.

But as said it doesn't seem to have been a truck bomb.