Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Zanza]

That's pretty much inevitable. Not just Ukrainians, Russians too.

[Barrister]

As pointed out in the article a sizeable majority of Ukrainian refugees say they wish to return to the country.  Heck a lot of them have already returned, at least from anecdotal reports.

[DGuller]

There could be a positive to this.  Assuming Ukraine wins the military war, the second war after that would be to not go back to being an corrupt ungovernable clusterfuck.  It seems like Ukrainians already associate such state with Russia, and want to emulate the West, but such enthusiasm can quickly die down when normalcy returns.  Having a strong connection to a diaspora that has absorbed the Western values can help against the regression to the past state of things.

[Barrister]

There could be a positive to this.  Assuming Ukraine wins the military war, the second war after that would be to not go back to being an corrupt ungovernable clusterfuck.  It seems like Ukrainians already associate such state with Russia, and want to emulate the West, but such enthusiasm can quickly die down when normalcy returns.  Having a strong connection to a diaspora that has absorbed the Western values can help against the regression to the past state of things.

I think related to this: there's a draft law in the Rada that makes English the official language of international communication, requiring numerous government jobs to be able to speak english and taking other steps to promote knowledge of english.

Certainly an obvious point of which way Ukraine is trying to orient itself.

[Habbaku]

Certainly an obvious point of which way Ukraine is trying to orient itself.

*occident

[Sheilbh]

There could be a positive to this.  Assuming Ukraine wins the military war, the second war after that would be to not go back to being an corrupt ungovernable clusterfuck.  It seems like Ukrainians already associate such state with Russia, and want to emulate the West, but such enthusiasm can quickly die down when normalcy returns.  Having a strong connection to a diaspora that has absorbed the Western values can help against the regression to the past state of things.

I think it's been going for a while. When I visited I remember the Friendship Arch in Kyiv was rainbow painted for diversity - and a friend there (who was Ukrainian, but worked for the German government) who was gay said that while there were still lots of problems and a lot of homophobia it was changing quite rapidly because anti-LGBT laws and positions were associated with Russia.

That was in the context of the 2014 invasion and ongoing skirmishes but I think there was a real sense of wanting to almost be an anti-Russia. More generally I think that sort of wartime founding myth can be really powerful.

Having said all that it's not clear that being an anti-Russia is sufficient to emulate the West (and in the context of Europe, I'm not sure that's the goal) or to avoid corruption.

Edit: And I should say that rainbow arch was in the years after Putin's anti-LGBT laws - which also just preceded the 2014 invasion of Ukraine.

Edit: Also the other big factor is that the EU has promised membership once the war is over and it is impossible for Ukraine to enter the EU without the EU and Ukraine transforming. It is entirely incompatible with the way the EU works now (and both Ukraine and the EU are already changing in really fundamental ways). I know it's unpopular, but Macron is right that the acquis will still need to be met which will require a lot of reform - again that's not a guarantee for the long term but it will change things.

[Jacob]

Certainly an obvious point of which way Ukraine is trying to orient itself.

*occident

 

[Jacob]

... and yeah, I agree with dguller on this. Having an engaged disapora can have a number of positive benefits as well - economically, culturally, politically. It's not guaranteed, but it's defintiely a possibility.

[Barrister]

... and yeah, I agree with dguller on this. Having an engaged disapora can have a number of positive benefits as well - economically, culturally, politically. It's not guaranteed, but it's defintiely a possibility.

I do feel the need to point out that Ukraine has long had an engaged diaspora, in particular in Canada, US and Poland.

[Valmy]

That's pretty much inevitable. Not just Ukrainians, Russians too.

Yeah. The future was very grim for both countries. This invasion has moved them further along the path to oblivion.

But Russia was at least pretending like things were starting to turn around for them. If that was true they seriously fucked themselves...if it was lies then they only fucked themselves more.

Well oblivion may be a bit over-dramatic. Oblivion for both of their current status quos. Obviously a black hole isn't going to open up where Ukraine and Russia used to be.

[Jacob]

I do feel the need to point out that Ukraine has long had an engaged diaspora, in particular in Canada, US and Poland.

Yes, that is true. And that diaspora has proven its value, I'm sure we'll all agree.

[Legbiter]

Vladimir Putin has moved to shake up Russia's security services in the wake of the Wagner group's failed insurrection, rewarding loyalists with promotions and freezing out figures sympathetic to the paramilitary organisation's leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Sergei Surovikin, a senior Russian general known to have a good relationship with Prigozhin, has not been seen since recording a hostage-style video in the early hours of Saturday morning as the mutiny began, according to several people familiar with the matter.

The unexplained absence of one of the most prominent commanders in Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine comes as Putin seeks to restore order and re-establish control over the security services after the first coup attempt in Russia in three decades, said the people.

https://archive.md/pJ7Hd#selection-2219.0-2241.175

Have at it Putin...

[Jacob]

Nothing like a good purge to improve morale and performance.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

That's pretty much inevitable. Not just Ukrainians, Russians too.

Western Europe isn't really much better population wise. There's not a country where the aboriginals have birthrates at replacement levels

[Josephus]

As pointed out in the article a sizeable majority of Ukrainian refugees say they wish to return to the country.  Heck a lot of them have already returned, at least from anecdotal reports.

That's not really surprising though. For most people, home is home.