Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

Kamil Galeev has yet another interesting thread on Russian internal power dynamics and how the situation will develop: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1503430216554795014

One cool thing is that he's making predictions based on his thesis and analysis:

I'm quite sure that in the near future we should be expecting mass house arrests or arrests among the bureaucrats. They can be justified through political accusations, accusations of corruption, of incompetence, whatever. But the reason would be saving money on their maintenance

Many officials will grab as much resources as possible (=borrow power) and then lowkey default. Like every smart opportunist did in 1989-1991. Nobody will rebel, many will sabotage. For example, many will try to keep as many consumer goods in their region to keep discontent down

[mongers]

One tiny silver lining, after this war is over people won't need to so often compare contemporary international history with WW2, instead I think they'll be a lot of "before the Ukraine War" and "after the Ukraine War".

[Jacob]

One tiny silver lining, after this war is over people won't need to so often compare contemporary international history with WW2, instead I think they'll be a lot of "before the Ukraine War" and "after the Ukraine War".

Depends how it goes. It could be before "the Russian Wars" or "WWIII" or something else. It kind of depends how things go from here.

[mongers]

One tiny silver lining, after this war is over people won't need to so often compare contemporary international history with WW2, instead I think they'll be a lot of "before the Ukraine War" and "after the Ukraine War".

Depends how it goes. It could be before "the Russian Wars" or "WWIII" or something else. It kind of depends how things go from here.

Well yes, I was being implicit optimistic, Jacob you could well be right, unfortunately.   

[grumbler]

One tiny silver lining, after this war is over people won't need to so often compare contemporary international history with WW2, instead I think they'll be a lot of "before the Ukraine War" and "after the Ukraine War".

Well, given that "Post Cold War" and "Post-9/11" are competing as the current standard, not "Post-WW2," we will see what the new standard is, if any, created by the current war.

[Razgovory]

Kamil Galeev has yet another interesting thread on Russian internal power dynamics and how the situation will develop: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1503430216554795014

One cool thing is that he's making predictions based on his thesis and analysis:

I'm quite sure that in the near future we should be expecting mass house arrests or arrests among the bureaucrats. They can be justified through political accusations, accusations of corruption, of incompetence, whatever. But the reason would be saving money on their maintenance

Many officials will grab as much resources as possible (=borrow power) and then lowkey default. Like every smart opportunist did in 1989-1991. Nobody will rebel, many will sabotage. For example, many will try to keep as many consumer goods in their region to keep discontent down

Didn't know about Navalny's fascist connections. 

[Jacob]

Didn't know about Navalny's fascist connections. 

Yeah, he's a piece of work. It doesn't take away from his courage, standing up to Putin, but yeah....

[Valmy]

I'm pleased that Trump appears to have done no permanent damage to the US's credibility.  Serious people do not seem to be questioning what the US has been saying.

Here in Europe a lot of people are worried what will happen to NATO if Trump wins in 2024.

If things go badly for Russia then suddenly Trump will be talking about how great Zelensky is and how much he wants Ukraine in NATO.

[celedhring]

Kamil Galeev has yet another interesting thread on Russian internal power dynamics and how the situation will develop: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1503430216554795014

One cool thing is that he's making predictions based on his thesis and analysis:

I'm quite sure that in the near future we should be expecting mass house arrests or arrests among the bureaucrats. They can be justified through political accusations, accusations of corruption, of incompetence, whatever. But the reason would be saving money on their maintenance

Many officials will grab as much resources as possible (=borrow power) and then lowkey default. Like every smart opportunist did in 1989-1991. Nobody will rebel, many will sabotage. For example, many will try to keep as many consumer goods in their region to keep discontent down

Galeev's threads are always such a grim read. I knew about Navalny's past, but he doesn't have a good opinion of the Moscow liberal opposition either.

Regarding Navalny, he's never hidden he's a nationalist. He does, however, claim to be a democratic/peaceful one, which would be a massive improvement over the status quo. Given his personal martyrdom, it's hard not to sympathise with him.

[jimmy olsen]

Ballsy

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1503654715229458436

Breaking News: The leaders of Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic said they would meet in Kyiv to express the EU's "unequivocal support" for Ukraine and offer financial help.

I love their faces when he says that.
https://twitter.com/amanpour/status/1503436991622483972

Finnish President @niinisto spoke with Putin on Friday. He tells me that while "Putin has his list" of demands, "it seems that changing the government of Ukraine is not anymore on the list... He said (on the call) 'I have never demanded it.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah good on those PMs - it's an impressive move and the right one.

Separately the mayor of Mariupol says they believe around 20,000 civilians have been killed in that city

Edit: Useful thread on the situation in Russian occupied South-East Ukraine. As he says both alarming and inspiring:
https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1503439298581999622

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Edit: Useful thread on the situation in Russian occupied South-East Ukraine. As he says both alarming and inspiring:
https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1503439298581999622

not the first I've seen. A couple of days ago I saw the recording of the counciller of Cherson (mentioned in quoted thread iirc).
this is going to get worse, a lot worse.
The collaborators best not be allowed to get settled in either.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Lawyers for the woman who carried the anti-war sign out on camera of the state news broadcast say that she is now missing and cannot be found.

[Tamas]

Lawyers for the woman who carried the anti-war sign out on camera of the state news broadcast say that she is now missing and cannot be found.

I guess they need her wounds to heal before they can show her living peacefully and content in a gulag prison.

[celedhring]

She's reappeared in court. She seems unharmed.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1503732751136083975

They are saying that - for now at least - they aren't charging her with the "badmouth the army gets you 15 years in the slammer" law.