Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.
The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People's Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.

I mean, fingers crossed.
But the entire reason they are such a threat is that their people are so good at rewiring peoples heads to think the sky is green.
I do fear this time next month it'll be Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia and its the libs who were the ones doing Putin's bidding.

[Legbiter]

Here is Francis Fukuyama's take on the war (he is the author of the famous "End of History" book):

https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

I'm writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I've been for the last week teaching one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses. Following the Ukraine war is no different here in terms of available information, except that I'm in an adjacent time zone, and the fact that there is more support for Putin in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. A lot of the latter is due to Serbia, and Serbia's hosting of Sputnik.

I'll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

• Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

This is all probably true but the Russians will still push through and grind Ukraine down. Logistics and manpower is shit? Well, they'll make do until they get something early next week, weather and Ukrainian resistance permitting. The question is how long can the Ukrainians last?  Sticking this through is now a matter of regime survival for the Russians. 

[Duque de Bragança]

The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.
The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People's Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.

I mean, fingers crossed.
But the entire reason they are such a threat is that their people are so good at rewiring peoples heads to think the sky is green.
I do fear this time next month it'll be Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia and its the libs who were the ones doing Putin's bidding.

Fukuyama always wanting some kind of history to end, populist this time, omits that right-wing populists in countries close to Russia, as in possibly threatened by Russia are far from being in decline (not just Svoboda in Ukraine), and pro-Putin left-wing populists are far from affected, yet. Unfortunately.

[crazy canuck]

The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.
The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People's Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.

I mean, fingers crossed.
But the entire reason they are such a threat is that their people are so good at rewiring peoples heads to think the sky is green.
I do fear this time next month it'll be Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia and its the libs who were the ones doing Putin's bidding.

Fukuyama always wanting some kind of history to end, populist this time, omits that right-wing populists in countries close to Russia, as in possibly threatened by Russia are far from being in decline (not just Svoboda in Ukraine), and pro-Putin left-wing populists are far from affected, yet. Unfortunately.

Yeah, he fails to recognize the Liberal Democracy was in trouble independent of Russia and even if Russia loses this war, Liberal Democracy will still be in trouble.

[celedhring]

Brave woman.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1503444144206888962

I know we've had a million examples of the Russian regime's inhumanity, but it's so shocking that this girl is probably going to spend several years in jail for doing this.

[Jacob]

Brave woman.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1503444144206888962

I know we've had a million examples of the Russian regime's inhumanity, but it's so shocking that this girl is probably going to spend several years in jail for doing this.

Here's a video she recorded prior to the action: https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1503457196641853447

Here's a statement translated, (I believe):

A video the TV network employee Maria Ovsyannikova recorded before storming the live Russian state news broadcast with a protest sign is now circulating. In it, she says her father is Ukrainian, her mother is Russian, and blames Putin for the war, calling on Russians to protest.

[Josquius]

I wonder if they'll try the "she's part Ukranian. Of course she'll say that. Enemy of the state." angle.

[Sheilbh]

Brave woman.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1503444144206888962

I know we've had a million examples of the Russian regime's inhumanity, but it's so shocking that this girl is probably going to spend several years in jail for doing this.

Yeah - maximum sentence of 15 years in a Russian prison. And I feel like doing it on TV will get the maximum sentence. That is a very brave act.

Realist theory has usefulness in analyzing and describing Russian foreign policy in the Putin era not because it captures some inherent and necessary truth about the nature of Russia and the world, but because as an intellectual framework it is closely in accord with the way in which Russia's dictator thinks about the world.  Of course, other world actors should take account of this fact, and guide themselves accordingly - in this limited sense, Mearshimer and his acolytes have a point.  But it is obscene to suggest that a failure by the "West" to internalize Putin's own worldview absolves Putin for responsibility for his behavior and shifts the guilt for his crimes on others.

On Mearsheimer and Russian view I agree entirely with OvB - who phrased it better than I did.

And the last point here is also obviously true. On the bit about Putin/Russia and realism I'm less sure. My read is that the realist view would apply to any Russian state - I cannot imagine the Russian state that would accept Ukraine moving into the Western orbit except, possibly temporarily in a scenario like the 90s when Russia had basically collapsd. I thik that would structurally always be a tension. I think it might lead to something like 2014 if something Euromaidan happened.

But this war I think is entirely Putin, and I don't think there's anything realist about it. First because of Tooze's point that in the last 100 years aggressive war (outside the context of national liberation) has not generally gone well for the aggressor - and it seems fantastical to me to have a theory that ignore that called "realism". But secondly because the sense I have - which could be totally wrong - is that Putin's been saying to Western leaders for years that Ukraine isn't a real country or a real identity (he said it to Bush, Tusk etc). I think that's the ultimate driver here - I think he really believes the stuff in his summer essay about how they are one people in the land of the Rus (which he's now shelling the shit out of - including yesterday a historically important lavra in Donetsk). I think those two sides are the bits Mearsheimer misses - I think his theory works as an explanation until this year but there's no "realist" explanation of this that doesn't just ignore the twentieth century.

There is also a flip side to Mearshimer's argument.  Just as one can argue that Europe failed to fully consider matters from Putin's subjective perspective, Putin did the same to Europe.  It is clear that Putin seriously underestimated the way in which his action would transform European perspectives about him, about Russia, about their own attitudes towards collective military security. The fact is that present day Europeans don't view the international system as an anarchic competition between power seeking states. They view the international system as rule based - and while those rules may be softer than domestic statutory law, they are real enough that flagrant infractions require punishment and ostracism.

Ish - I'd push back on this a little. Because I think that's a function of Russian failure. If Putin was right and Zelensky was genuinely loathed, or he took Ukraine serious but committed enough forces in a way that could accomplish the decapitation mission - I'm not sure that it wouldn't have been normalised/explained away. I suspect the sanctions would have been the limited first round that were briefed with Nord Stream II still happening (deepening dependence), with carve-outs for diamonds etc and Poland and the Baltics (and probably France) sounding the alarm to no effect.

I think there is something about wanting to stand up for their rules-based vision of the world. But I think there is also a romanticism to the European response - I think it was motivated in part by Zelensky's direct appeal that he was on the front line for European values and there's something of a Kossuth or a Garibaldi about the way he has rallied international popular support which I think also had an effect on politicians (though no doubt they sincerely felt it too), or Spain 1936 (but not just on the left and this time France and the UK are sending weapons).

[Solmyr]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1503327421839417344

Any chance they could kill each other?

[Solmyr]

I'm pleased that Trump appears to have done no permanent damage to the US's credibility.  Serious people do not seem to be questioning what the US has been saying.

Here in Europe a lot of people are worried what will happen to NATO if Trump wins in 2024.

[Jacob]

Here in Europe a lot of people are worried what will happen to NATO if Trump wins in 2024.

Here in North America also.

[Solmyr]

The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.
The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People's Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.

I mean, fingers crossed.
But the entire reason they are such a threat is that their people are so good at rewiring peoples heads to think the sky is green.
I do fear this time next month it'll be Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia and its the libs who were the ones doing Putin's bidding.

In Finland, a vocally leftist musician performed at a concert held to collect aid for Ukraine. This musician has mocked Putin many times in the past and has condemned the invasion of Ukraine. Because he opposes Finland joining NATO, right-wingers on Twitter are calling him a putinist.

[The Brain]

The credibility of the US as a long-term partner has taken a huge hit. At any time a Trump or worse can be in the White House. Given the political instability of the US you can't even be sure it's after an election year.

[Sheilbh]

The credibility of the US as a long-term partner has taken a huge hit. At any time a Trump or worse can be in the White House. Given the political instability of the US you can't even be sure it's after an election year.

I think that's also driving the European push for some form of re-armament (sensibly).

[The Brain]

The credibility of the US as a long-term partner has taken a huge hit. At any time a Trump or worse can be in the White House. Given the political instability of the US you can't even be sure it's after an election year.

I think that's also driving the European push for some form of re-armament (sensibly).

There's definitely some good things coming out of it. Many countries have used the US as a crutch.