Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Jacob]

Oh man, Russia is retaliating against the US. Biden, Blinken, and Austin - as well as a list of other politicians and top officials - are no longer allowed to enter Russia.

[The Brain]

How long can the West keep going?

[celedhring]

How long can the West keep going?

Yeah, I find most telling that they haven't retaliated in the thing that would hurt us the most - cutting gas supplies to Europe. They'd be as fucked as we'd be.

[Jacob]

Yeah, I find most telling that they haven't retaliated in the thing that would hurt us the most - cutting gas supplies to Europe. They'd be as fucked as we'd be.

They'd be more fucked than Europe would be, I think.

[Jacob]

Don't know how responsive they US sanctions are to public pressure, but if it is it would seem that pressuring Cummins to take stronger steps on Russia would be good (apparently they supply/ manufacture the engines and spare parts for a number of Russian military vehicles): https://www.motorbiscuit.com/the-russian-army-is-cummins-powered/

[The Brain]

Don't know how responsive they US sanctions are to public pressure, but if it is it would seem that pressuring Cummins to take stronger steps on Russia would be good (apparently they supply/ manufacture the engines and spare parts for a number of Russian military vehicles): https://www.motorbiscuit.com/the-russian-army-is-cummins-powered/

Is dual-use exports to Russia still allowed?

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - it is extraordinary given the context and the wider sanctions that gas is still flowing. In fact there's more flowing into Europe than normal. From Bloomberg's energy reporter yesterday:

Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
We're seeing the **strongest** flows of Russian gas into the European Union since the invasion of Ukraine started, with Mallnow registering 3 consecutive days of non-stop flows, plus steady high inflows at Velke and NS1. At current prices, that's quite a bounty for the Kremlin

Interestingly no-one is buying Russian oil. Glencore is still operating in Russia but cannot find buyers.

It's why I think the most important bit of sanctions is the EU's plan to cut reliance on Russian gas by 2/3s this year.

[Berkut]

The German tank museum has a few videos with their director having a few thoughts about the war in Ukraine. He covered briefly the history of the T-64 => T-90 evolution, and that the design philosophy behind them was different than with Western tanks - Abrams, Chieftain, Leo etc. were designed around sustainability, i.e. keeping each tank and crew in combat as long as possible and allowing for easy repairs (e.g. how you can replace a Leo-2 engine in minutes).

The Soviet models were based on ensuring the formation can achieve its objective, and treating tanks (and crews) as expendable material. The idea being that 1:1 a T-72 wouldn't measure up to an Abrams, but massed formations would overwhelm them, creating gaps in the defenses that could be exploited. That led to smaller, mass produced tanks built for smaller (physically) crews. If there's technical problems or damage - often best bet is to just abandon it, because recovery/repair might be very unlikely or impossible - explaining why we see all those images of abandoned equipment.

That reminds me of Glantz's analysis of WW2 tank design and doctrine comparison between Germany and the USSR.

The Germans considered each armored vehicle to be an asset, kind of like how the Navy looks at a ship. Sure, you are going to lose some, but they should be preserved, repaired, and put back into service. And they should be designed to stand up in combat with a service life measured in months, if not years.

The Soviets realized that the average tank lasted hours in combat - not days, not weeks, and certainly not months. For them, armor is ammunition - something that is expended in order to achieve a result. Sure, you might repair them if and when you can, but mostly you just use them up and get more. No reason to make the transmission in a T-34 reliable enough to last a thousand hours when the AFV is almost certainly going to be destroyed in less then 10 hours.

Of course, they won the war and the Germans lost....

[Crazy_Ivan80]

re: the oil thing: weren't tankers shot at in the Black Sea a few weeks ago? leading to no ship wanting to go to the region to actually pick up the oil? Or was that just empty rumour?

[Syt]

That reminds me of Glantz's analysis of WW2 tank design and doctrine comparison between Germany and the USSR.

The Germans considered each armored vehicle to be an asset, kind of like how the Navy looks at a ship. Sure, you are going to lose some, but they should be preserved, repaired, and put back into service. And they should be designed to stand up in combat with a service life measured in months, if not years.

The Soviets realized that the average tank lasted hours in combat - not days, not weeks, and certainly not months. For them, armor is ammunition - something that is expended in order to achieve a result. Sure, you might repair them if and when you can, but mostly you just use them up and get more. No reason to make the transmission in a T-34 reliable enough to last a thousand hours when the AFV is almost certainly going to be destroyed in less then 10 hours.

Of course, they won the war and the Germans lost....

Very much the comparison he also drew, that the West were basically doing what the Germans used to do, and the Red Army continued on the path that had worked for them in WW2.

[The Brain]

Of course in WW2 the Russians received enormous amounts of material support from the West. Now not so much.

[Admiral Yi]

The Cummins engines are being produced in Russia under license, not exported.

[crazy canuck]

So cancel the license agreement

For context a number of license agreements between the Iranians and BC utility companies were cancelled when relations turned sour with that country.  There is no reason why this should be any different.

[The Brain]

The Cummins engines are being produced in Russia under license, not exported.

Is that still allowed?

[The Brain]

What restrictions does NATO membership put on the actions of countries? Eg how free or unfree are members to station military forces in non-NATO countries, make alliances with non-members etc etc?