Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Admiral Yi]

Is that still allowed?

Not by me.

I don't really get your question.

[Barrister]

Yeah - it is extraordinary given the context and the wider sanctions that gas is still flowing. In fact there's more flowing into Europe than normal. From Bloomberg's energy reporter yesterday:

Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
We're seeing the **strongest** flows of Russian gas into the European Union since the invasion of Ukraine started, with Mallnow registering 3 consecutive days of non-stop flows, plus steady high inflows at Velke and NS1. At current prices, that's quite a bounty for the Kremlin

Interestingly no-one is buying Russian oil. Glencore is still operating in Russia but cannot find buyers.

It's why I think the most important bit of sanctions is the EU's plan to cut reliance on Russian gas by 2/3s this year.

My understanding is that in the months lead-up to the war Russia had seriously curtailed gas exports so that gas storage in europe would be very low, which it was.  This was seemingly as a way to threaten europe of the consequences of opposing Russia.

Instead though the currency controls on Russia has seriously harmed the country so they're desperate for cash and willing to sell every last bit of gas they can, even if it means filling up european reserves.


Which reminds me - with the capital controls on Russia, how exactly are the Russians paid for their gas?

[Admiral Yi]

What restrictions does NATO membership put on the actions of countries? Eg how free or unfree are members to station military forces in non-NATO countries, make alliances with non-members etc etc?

Going by Turkey's free lancing in the Middle East and North Africa, I'm guessing not much.

[Sheilbh]

Which reminds me - with the capital controls on Russia, how exactly are the Russians paid for their gas?

I think payments for energy aren't sanctioned is my understanding.

What restrictions does NATO membership put on the actions of countries? Eg how free or unfree are members to station military forces in non-NATO countries, make alliances with non-members etc etc?

I don't think there's any.

[The Brain]

Is that still allowed?

Not by me.

I don't really get your question.

I was just wondering if the sanctions recently put in place allow it.

[The Brain]

So there's nothing stopping a non-NATO Ukraine from having NATO troops stationed there and having defensive alliances with NATO countries. I mean, I assume any deal between Ukraine and Russia won't be worded as sloppily as "NATO membership is not allowed", but then lower quality decisions have been made by Putin recently.

[Syt]

Saw a calculation for the increase in fuel prices in Germany that showed that only part of the price hike is due to a rise in oil prices. The biggest share seems to go to the refineries - some of which have Russian shareholders.

[Jacob]

So there's nothing stopping a non-NATO Ukraine from having NATO troops stationed there and having defensive alliances with NATO countries. I mean, I assume any deal between Ukraine and Russia won't be worded as sloppily as "NATO membership is not allowed", but then lower quality decisions have been made by Putin recently.

However, if those NATO member troops are attacked it does not trigger the invocation of any NATO articles - at least as I understand it.

[Admiral Yi]

I was just wondering if the sanctions recently put in place allow it.

I don't know.  But I would say it's pretty irrelevant if sanctions allow the Russian factory to keep producing.

[Barrister]

I was just wondering if the sanctions recently put in place allow it.

I don't know.  But I would say it's pretty irrelevant if sanctions allow the Russian factory to keep producing.

If it's just a licensing issue I don't think Russia cares.  They certainly don't care when the lessors of all of their jet aircraft are demanding tier planes be returned.

Russia being Russia, though, I strongly suspect that Russia production relies on key components coming in from the West.

[The Brain]

So there's nothing stopping a non-NATO Ukraine from having NATO troops stationed there and having defensive alliances with NATO countries. I mean, I assume any deal between Ukraine and Russia won't be worded as sloppily as "NATO membership is not allowed", but then lower quality decisions have been made by Putin recently.

However, if those NATO member troops are attacked it does not trigger the invocation of any NATO articles - at least as I understand it.

No, but if major NATO countries have defensive alliances with Ukraine it's already WW3, which might discourage future Russian invasions.

[The Brain]

I was just wondering if the sanctions recently put in place allow it.

I don't know.  But I would say it's pretty irrelevant if sanctions allow the Russian factory to keep producing.

I don't follow.

[Admiral Yi]

I don't follow.

As Beeb said above.  A license is a piece of paper.  If the Cummins guy calls up People's Factory #93 and tells them to stop producing, it won't have much effect.

Unless they rely on imported parts.

Though I suppose even in case A Cummins should formally cancel the license and forego any royalties.

[Jacob]

No, but if major NATO countries have defensive alliances with Ukraine it's already WW3, which might discourage future Russian invasions.

Yeah I see what you're saying.

Like, say, if Ukraine and US make a defensive alliance that's not NATO but probably fairly discouraging for Russia.

[Jacob]

As Beeb said above.  A license is a piece of paper.  If the Cummins guy calls up People's Factory #93 and tells them to stop producing, it won't have much effect.

Unless they rely on imported parts.

Though I suppose even in case A Cummins should formally cancel the license and forego any royalties.

I'd expect that People's Factory #93 depends on some Western manufactured parts and/ or expertise to run efficiently. But yeah, in theory it could be self-contained.