Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

3...2...1...

Germany would not stand in the way if Poland sent its German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Sunday in an interview with French television LCI.

Asked what would happen if Poland went ahead and sent its Leopard 2 tanks without German approval, Baerbock said: "For the moment the question has not been asked, but if we were asked we would not stand in the way."

"We know how important these tanks are and this is why we are discussing this now with our partners," the German foreign minister added. "We need to make sure people's lives are saved and Ukraine's territory liberated."

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-germany-wont-keep-poland-from-sending-tanks-to-ukraine/a-64480279

[Zanza]

That was the official position before.  Let's see how many countries actually ask.

[Zanza]

You can hedge and waffle and not be decisive and still explain your position. IMO Germany has been the only country that hasn't really even done that.

German foreign policy has been unchanged for decades... multilateralism and rules-based order, deepen EU, participate in NATO. What exactly needs to be explained?  Honest question as it is not apparent to me...

[grumbler]

You can hedge and waffle and not be decisive and still explain your position. IMO Germany has been the only country that hasn't really even done that.

German foreign policy has been unchanged for decades... multilateralism and rules-based order, deepen EU, participate in NATO. What exactly needs to be explained?  Honest question as it is not apparent to me...

Those aren't policies, they are goals.  Policy is how you plan to get to and keep a rules-based order.

[Sheilbh]

That was the official position before.  Let's see how many countries actually ask.

But you don't make a formal request of an ally that will or could be formally denied. You only make it once you know the answer will be positive.

[Admiral Yi]

US of A
UK
Baltic States
Poland

What is the US position on, say supplying tanks?

[mongers]

US of A
UK
Baltic States
Poland

What is the US position on, say supplying tanks?

'Cash and Carry'?

[Tamas]

US of A
UK
Baltic States
Poland

What is the US position on, say supplying tanks?

Can you define what you mean by tanks?

[mongers]

US of A
UK
Baltic States
Poland

What is the US position on, say supplying tanks?

Can you define what you mean by tanks?

Multiple mobile, non-water holding metal things?

[OttoVonBismarck]

If he means Main Battle Tanks the issue IMO is the Ukrainian capacity to operate the Abrams would be very suspect, honestly I have the same concerns about the Leopard 2s. These are high tech, very expensive per-unit tanks that require a lot of systems and infrastructure in place. I am not talking about training crews--that is relatively easy, I mean more the logistics around them.

I also do not realistically think any Western country has sufficient scale of MBT stockpiles or production to give Ukraine enough tanks to be decisive, frankly. The U.S. basically shutdown our main tank factory years ago, technically we have kept it running be we cut staffing to skeleton crew levels and the factory just does refurbishments now. Trump actually increased headcount because DoD decided it might not be ideal to no longer have the industrial base to produce our main tank, but it's still a shadow of what it was. Doctrinally there was a belief we didn't need to be making a lot of tanks anymore, and while there has been some realization that may have been a mistake, nothing is easily in place to make a ton of these tanks now.

[Sheilbh]

Hungary's position is pretty fucking clear also, as is Turkey's.

I know I keep saying Turkey's position is, I think, more interesting and nuanced - so I won't say it again

But on Hungary in a way they're doing the opposite of Germany. They loudly and vocally disagree with various measures up to the moment of decision at which point they don't do anything to stop them. They're signalling their position without actually doing anything that might incur consequences. Can't remember who it was who talked about the idea of "vice signaling" but I think that's Hungary's approach.

For example just today Hungary's FM put out a statement on how disastrous the next round of EU sanctions are and that it's a dreadful idea etc etc. On sanctions Hungary could exercise their veto - but, instead, they just abstained which means in practice they're no worse than, say, Belgium or Ireland who've used "constructive abstentions" on EU sanctions/support for Ukraine.

[Legbiter]

Hungary receives gas from Russia, in fact they signed a gas deal last fall and there are a lot of murky dealings between the two.

[Sheilbh]

For sure - and they're not helping Ukraine in any material way. But sanctions require unanimity and we're now on the eleventh EU sanctions package where Hungary makes a lot of noise but doesn't veto.

I think they do precisely as much as they can get away with without getting in the way of the rest of the EU in a way that might have repurcussions for them.

[celedhring]

If he means Main Battle Tanks the issue IMO is the Ukrainian capacity to operate the Abrams would be very suspect, honestly I have the same concerns about the Leopard 2s. These are high tech, very expensive per-unit tanks that require a lot of systems and infrastructure in place. I am not talking about training crews--that is relatively easy, I mean more the logistics around them.

Army man in the Spanish OT that has experience with both tanks claims that Leos are actually harder to maintain than Abramses, lots of finicky tech.

I'm with you, not so sure western tanks can realistically make a difference here given the industrial and logistics challenges involved - which is troubling.

[Tamas]

Maybe this is not nice but I have to admit I enjoyed the Russian propaganda chick screaming in pain after playing soldier and getting sniped in the knee. She and her ilk are making it possible to keep the war going and have thus blood on their hands:

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1616891317203922944?s=20&t=9HI49A6OcFh5327_2vCMxg