Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

There might be a Blinken-Lawrow meeting followed by a Biden-Putin meeting - unless Russia invades Ukraine (further). Let's see. Maybe there is still room for Russia to back down somehow. I guess continuing to talk has little downside, so it's worth trying.

Agreed - while there's talks there's not (much) violence so it's worth keeping going.

I think Blinken-Lavrov is tomorrow and has been planned for a while. The White House and Kremlin are both playing down the chances of a Biden-Putin summit (again this might have been the Elysee overselling things) - the White House have said it's completely notional at this point and they still expect an invasion, while the Kremlin have said it's premature to talk about any summit happening.

[Tamas]

The Russian security council is meeting today. The rebels are claiming 60 thousand Russians fled their territory after their pre-recorded emergency call to flee. There won't be a Blinken-Lavrov meet that's scheduled for Friday. There'll be shooting before that.

[Tamas]

"Russia's FSB says shell from Ukrainian territory destroyed borderguard post in Rostov region - IFAX"

This is neat because they can just have their own guys lob some mortar rounds from across the border and say that came from "Ukrainian territory" and technically they'd be right.. Much more practical than having to dress up some folks and have them shoot at your own radio station.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - tough to disagree with the Guardian's CEE correspondent:

Shaun Walker
@shaunwalker7
This whole buildup is less false flag and more "hastily stitched-together and very obviously invented" flag

[Tamas]

I agree with this apparently respected Russian analyst reported by the Guardian:

Western leaders are showing "unbelievable naivety" if they think a summit between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin can avert war now, according to the respected Russian politics analyst Tatiana Stanovaya.

In a post on her Telegram account, following late-night diplomacy between Putin and Emmanuel Macron, she argues the train has already left the station. "Everything has already been decided," she said, following the west's refusal to give the Russian president security guarantees - namely a veto on Nato expansion and rollback of the alliance's forces to pre-1997 borders. "Just talking on the phone and exchanging concerns will not stop anything," she writes. "Everything is already starting up."

Long-term observers of Russian politics hope she is wrong...

[Zanza]

Is there any downside to trying to keep talking?

[The Larch]

Is there any downside to trying to keep talking?

Almost none, IMO. It keeps Russia in tension and with its troops in a state of sterile readiness while it buys time for Ukraine to bolster its defences and receive more material support.

[Tamas]

Yeah agreed. But the Moscow stock exchange also don't seem to trust in avoidance of war, being down 8% today, and all.

[Josquius]

So maybe it's not naivety at all. Maybe they're playing Russia at their own game knowing the longer things drag out the worse it is for Russia.

[celedhring]

The fact they haven't invaded after such a long standoff makes me think they aren't really sure of this either - but on the other hand their demands are insane.

[Sheilbh]

Is there any downside to trying to keep talking?

None that I can think of - the longer they're talking the less likely it is they're shooting (much). I suppose the risk is if keeping talking creates its own pressures and dynamic and we end up pressuring Ukraine to accept things they don't want to, to keep the talks going and start to salami slice their position - for example I think Ukraine's foreign minister has said they've had some pressure from unnamed European countries about committing not to apply to NATO. I don't think that's happening in a substantial way though and I think the salami slice risk is low because so far I think the West has been very coordinated and kept Ukraine in the loop.

Though ahead of the (unscheduled) National Security Council meeting in Moscow, Luhansk and Donetsk have "formally requested" Russian aid and seven Russian regions have now declared a state of emergency to deal with the "refugees".

The fact they haven't invaded after such a long standoff makes me think they aren't really sure of this either - but on the other hand their demands are insane.

This is the thing I keep coming back to - that all the options have really obvious, clear and pretty big downsides.

For what it's worth there was a really grim piece by Gideon Rachman in the FT about the US intelligence view being the order has gone out, it's just waiting for it to be launched. Apparently US intelligence are just seeing so much communication within and between different bits of the military that it would be an incredible con or amount of effort to spoof. The acknowledge that Russia could be trying to lead them but just think the preparation they're seeing and communication is too much for that - and they're even recording nervous communications from normal soldiers about the prospect of going into battle

Apparently US intelligence thinks more and more that Kyiv is the primary target. According to reports the Brits are worried that the orders/plans/language around the first attack is about overwhelming force so are worried we'd be look at a lot of casualties. The French, British and American intelligence services are all basically apparently aligned on this stuff too - they're seeing and thinking the same thing which is incredibly worrying.

[Tamas]

Russia reports five deaths and claims attempted border incursion
Russian military officials have said five people who tried to breach Russia's border have been killed, Reuters report.

Russian officials have said Russian troops and border guards prevented "Ukrainian saboteurs" from breaching their shared border, according to Russian wires cited by Reuters. Ukrainian armed vehicles were destroyed in Russia's Rostov region, according to the reports.

This is such insultingly transparent BS. At least America has the decency to fabricate elaborate ploys with WMDs, or have their cruiser mysteriously blow up in their target nation's port when they want something.

[Duque de Bragança]

"Russia's FSB says shell from Ukrainian territory destroyed borderguard post in Rostov region - IFAX"

This is neat because they can just have their own guys lob some mortar rounds from across the border and say that came from "Ukrainian territory" and technically they'd be right.. Much more practical than having to dress up some folks and have them shoot at your own radio station.

Russia reports five deaths and claims attempted border incursion
Russian military officials have said five people who tried to breach Russia's border have been killed, Reuters report.

Russian officials have said Russian troops and border guards prevented "Ukrainian saboteurs" from breaching their shared border, according to Russian wires cited by Reuters. Ukrainian armed vehicles were destroyed in Russia's Rostov region, according to the reports.

This is such insultingly transparent BS. At least America has the decency to fabricate elaborate ploys with WMDs, or have their cruiser mysteriously blow up in their target nation's port when they want something.

True with Havana, yet Manila to Mainila sounds very close phonetically. 

[Sheilbh]

This is such insultingly transparent BS. At least America has the decency to fabricate elaborate ploys with WMDs, or have their cruiser mysteriously blow up in their target nation's port when they want something.

Russian media also reporting that "the Russian military destroyed two armoured carriers of the Ukrainian army that crossed the Russian border from Ukraine, the Southern Military District reports".

Ukrainian MoD strongly pushing back against this, as you'd expect. But as you say

[Tamas]

This is such insultingly transparent BS. At least America has the decency to fabricate elaborate ploys with WMDs, or have their cruiser mysteriously blow up in their target nation's port when they want something.

Russian media also reporting that "the Russian military destroyed two armoured carriers of the Ukrainian army that crossed the Russian border from Ukraine, the Southern Military District reports".

Ukrainian MoD strongly pushing back against this, as you'd expect. But as you say

We must be getting close now then, I guess.

I am hoping against all hope that the Russians have decided to alter the plans and leave Kyiv alone. They cannot be serious about using the above pretexts for anything else than "peacekeeping" in the Donbas.