Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

It does smell a bit off doesn't it. Kind of pathetic like a "Oh BTW NATO in case you didn't realise we have nukes. Are you surreeee you don't want to change your mind?"

Yeah plus in a hot war between NATO and Russia, NATO headquarters will be a hole in the ground on day 1 via missiles from Kaliningrad if they want to. Same with every major NATO supply and fuel depot, stockpiles, the main ports. Nuclear escalation becomes a real threat pretty fast after that. The Russian military today is not the 90's shitshow it was.

[Sheilbh]

Apparently alleged helmet cam footage on pro-separatist and Russian news agencies claiming they foiled an attempt by Ukrainians (speaking Polish ) to blow up a cholorine gas tank at a treatment facility in separatist territory.

The head of the DPR has ordered an evacuation of women, children and the elderly towards the Russian border.

The US had said that Moscow could use a false-flag chemical attack as a pretext to escalate. Not sure if this is it, but it is striking.

Edit: From Leonid Ragazin:

"Donetsk Republic" says it begins evacuating residents to Russia. Together with the claims of genocide, it is Kosovo cosplay that we are seeing here.

Strikes me that this is probably the way to create footage of "my" refugees fleeing to create a pretext.

[Tamas]

Apparently alleged helmet cam footage on pro-separatist and Russian news agencies claiming they foiled an attempt by Ukrainians (speaking Polish ) to blow up a cholorine gas tank at a treatment facility in separatist territory.

The head of the DPR has ordered an evacuation of women, children and the elderly towards the Russian border.

The US had said that Moscow could use a false-flag chemical attack as a pretext to escalate. Not sure if this is it, but it is striking.

Bloody hell. I wonder if this is maybe the separatists playing their own game trying to force a Russian invasion. I mean, this is a pretty weak excuse to make a pretty big announcement. Surely Russian covert ops could come up with something better.

[mongers]

Apparently alleged helmet cam footage on pro-separatist and Russian news agencies claiming they foiled an attempt by Ukrainians (speaking Polish ) to blow up a cholorine gas tank at a treatment facility in separatist territory.

The head of the DPR has ordered an evacuation of women, children and the elderly towards the Russian border.

The US had said that Moscow could use a false-flag chemical attack as a pretext to escalate. Not sure if this is it, but it is striking.

Bloody hell. I wonder if this is maybe the separatists playing their own game trying to force a Russian invasion. I mean, this is a pretty weak excuse to make a pretty big announcement. Surely Russian covert ops could come up with something better.

I'm pretty sure that after the assassination and disappearances, the 'separatist' organisations are now directly manned and controlled by the GRU.

[Tamas]

It is really sounding like "Ukrainians are attacking Donbas" narrative is in full swing, with buses gathering to evacuate Donetsk into Russia proper, air raid sirens allegedly blasting and separatist leaders talking of "imminent Ukrainian attack". We might be very close to Russia getting rolling.

[Sheilbh]

It is really sounding like "Ukrainians are attacking Donbas" narrative is in full swing, with buses gathering to evacuate Donetsk into Russia proper, air raid sirens allegedly blasting and separatist leaders talking of "imminent Ukrainian attack". We might be very close to Russia getting rolling.

Yeah - footage of Russian speakers "fleeing" the Donbass because of "imminent Ukrainian attack", attacks being foiled. It looks like they are going for the Kosovo/"preventing a genocide" narrative.

And of course during Kosovo, NATO bombed Belgrade and the eventual consequence was Milosevic being removed - so you can see how they would justify regime change/more than a more limited intervention.

[Josquius]

Strange they got Polish speaking actors.
Ukrainian doesn't sound suitably alien enough to Russian ears so they have to turn it up a notch?
Or maybe its projection?- NATO little green men.

[Syt]

Meanwhile, on Danish TV:

[Sheilbh]

From the Ukrainian MoD - so maybe take with a pinch of salt - reported ceasefire breaches by Russia/the "republics" really jumped yesterday:

[Tamas]

Russian news reporting big explosion in middle of Donetsk, and Biden will be addressing the nation on Ukraine at 4PM his time.

[mongers]

Russian news reporting big explosion in middle of Donetsk, and Biden will be addressing the nation on Ukraine at 4PM his time.

Well fuck.

First big inter-state war in Europe since 1945?

[Sheilbh]

Russian news reporting big explosion in middle of Donetsk, and Biden will be addressing the nation on Ukraine at 4PM his time.

Ukrainian intelligence apparently alleging that Russia plans to attack a bus full of civilians and use that as a pretext. Obviously we're all in information war at this point - so who knows, but it's an incredibly grim allegation.

[DGuller]

Something is really concerning about the timing of the strategic nuke exercising and the apparent start of the war.  The US nuclear force is safe from a Russian cyberattack, right?  Right?

[Tamas]

Something is really concerning about the timing of the strategic nuke exercising and the apparent start of the war.  The US nuclear force is safe from a Russian cyberattack, right?  Right?

It was just probably what somebody thought a clever ruse to get their high command into war readiness and have Putin attend without raising alarm bells.

[Syt]

They do have nuclear exercises like this quite regularly, IIRC.

Whether that increases or lowers concern ...