Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[DGuller]

I hope Ukraine has good counter-battery radars.

[Syt]

I hope Ukraine has good counter-battery radars.

That takes me back. During my military service in the mid-90s, our unit was recon artillery. Our unit would place forward observers who placed microphones to pick up enemy arty firing sounds. They'd push a button when they heard a "boom" from enemy guns, essentially. Based on the mic locations, timing of them picking up the firing sounds, weather data, etc. our battery HQ would then triangulate the location of the enemy batteries.

A year or two after I finished my service our units was disbanded since a single vehicle could do the same job much more efficiently and precisely.

[Sheilbh]

After that last Armenia-Azerbaijan War I hope Ukraine has lots of drones.

Isn't that one of the "if not now, when?" theories - I believe the Turks are providing Ukraine with exactly those drones. Obviously Russia watched them in use in Armenia-Azerbaijan and has probably been analysing the impact on their ability to use force against Ukraine or for force to provide leverage (i.e. massing troops on the border doesn't have the same effect if the Ukrainians believe they have a very effective weapon that nullifies lots of that) - which is possibly why now. That those drones are a bit part of the Russian fear that Ukraine is re-arming at a pace that will make any Russian use of force/leverage in the future difficult.

[Tamas]

"If not now, when?" actually must be a very strong consideration for Russia at the moment. They have successfully triggered the West-sponsored modernisation of the Ukrainian forces, and they will never again achieve the same surprise they managed in 2014. Barring a VERY favourable political shift in Ukraie, if they want territorial concessions from Ukraine in the foreseeable future, their chances will only get lower from now.

[Sheilbh]

"If not now, when?" actually must be a very strong consideration for Russia at the moment. They have successfully triggered the West-sponsored modernisation of the Ukrainian forces, and they will never again achieve the same surprise they managed in 2014. Barring a VERY favourable political shift in Ukraie, if they want territorial concessions from Ukraine in the foreseeable future, their chances will only get lower from now.

Yeah - that's really true.

And I still mainly think this isn't Putin's plan A. My view (and who knows anything) is that this started as an attempt to provoke, after which Putin would mainly react. My suspicion is that he expected less support for Ukraine, less Western unity (and Biden has done a very good job) and less re-inforcing the Eastern frontier of NATO.

So I wonder if ironically the West's reponse is simultaneously increasing the deterrence against Russia doing anything and the conditions that would drive Russia actually invading - which makes it even more difficult to predict and ultimately coming down to the judgement call of one man.

[Tamas]

So I wonder if ironically the West's reponse is simultaneously increasing the deterrence against Russia doing anything and the conditions that would drive Russia actually invading - which makes it even more difficult to predict and ultimately coming down to the judgement call of one man.

That's probably true but regardless I think it's been the best course of action available to the West.

[Syt]

So I wonder if ironically the West's reponse is simultaneously increasing the deterrence against Russia doing anything and the conditions that would drive Russia actually invading - which makes it even more difficult to predict and ultimately coming down to the judgement call of one man.

That's probably true but regardless I think it's been the best course of action available to the West.

Or they wait until Trump returns to office in 2024 and signs over Ukraine in exchange for putting his name in gold letters on a third rate hotel somewhere in St. Petersburg.

[Sheilbh]

Or they wait until Trump returns to office in 2024 and signs over Ukraine in exchange for putting his name in gold letters on a third rate hotel somewhere in St. Petersburg.

Although that just goes to Macron's point.

That's probably true but regardless I think it's been the best course of action available to the West.

Oh for sure - it's just an irony I suppose.

[Tamas]

Russia will target specific groups of Ukrainians, US secretary of state Antony Blinken continues. He told the UN Security Council:

Conventional attacks are not all that Russia plans to inflict upon the people of Ukraine. We have information that indicates Russia will target specific groups of Ukrainians.

It is unclear exactly what the secretary of state is talking about here, but earlier unconfirmed versions of Russian war plans, in particular those published in the German Bild newspaper, suggest that potential Ukrainian resistance leaders would be rounded up and put in camps.

Blinken said:

We've been warning the Ukrainian government of all that is coming. And here today, we are laying it out in great detail with a hope that by sharing what we know with the world, we can influence Russia to abandon the path of war and choose a different path while there's still time.

So this got me worried a bit, as it made me think - what if Russia is going to seek to trigger ethnic conflict within Ukraine that goes beyond ethnic Russians to spread chaos and to achieve a more convincing CB?

There is a sizeable Hungarian minority in Ukraine across the border, they have already been collateral damage in the Donbas conflict, not just as conscripts dying but also having their language and education rights curtailed by laws intended to damage control on Russian influence, mainly, and the occasional far-right incidents of people being beaten up by Ukrainian etc.

If there's a provocation against the Hungarians in Ukraine, Hungary (this regime in particular, but would be true at any time) would feel obliged to make noise about it. And Hungary's prime minister was just visiting Putin and in general a total Russsian lapdog.

[Jacob]

That's probably true but regardless I think it's been the best course of action available to the West.

Agreed on both counts.

[mongers]

After that last Armenia-Azerbaijan War I hope Ukraine has lots of drones.

Isn't that one of the "if not now, when?" theories - I believe the Turks are providing Ukraine with exactly those drones. Obviously Russia watched them in use in Armenia-Azerbaijan and has probably been analysing the impact on their ability to use force against Ukraine or for force to provide leverage (i.e. massing troops on the border doesn't have the same effect if the Ukrainians believe they have a very effective weapon that nullifies lots of that) - which is possibly why now. That those drones are a bit part of the Russian fear that Ukraine is re-arming at a pace that will make any Russian use of force/leverage in the future difficult.

Though the other side of the coin is that Russians have integrated a lot of drones into their army.

[Tamas]

Apparently the annual Russian training simulation of a nuclear attack has been moved forward from the regular summer date to tomorrow and Putin will be personally attending it. You would think the guy would be working on de-escalating to reduce the awkwardness of the blunder he blundered into.

Vladimir Putin will personally oversee exercises of Russia's strategic deterrence forces, including ballistic and cruise missile launches meant to simulate a nuclear attack.

The annual strategic Grom drills will take place on Saturday "under the supervision of Russian Armed Forces Supreme Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Putin", Russia's defence ministry has said in a statement. "Ballistic and cruise missiles will be launched in its course."

Western governments had warned that Russia was planning to hold the strategic nuclear drills this month, rather than in late summer as is customary. The exercises coincide with the final day of Russia's Allied Resolve military drills in Belarus amid concerns that Russia is preparing an invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian drills will "involve forces and hardware belonging to the Aerospace Forces, the Southern Military District, the Strategic Missile Forces, the Northern Fleet, and the Black Sea Fleet", the ministry said.

[Josquius]

It does smell a bit off doesn't it. Kind of pathetic like a "Oh BTW NATO in case you didn't realise we have nukes. Are you surreeee you don't want to change your mind?"

[Tamas]

It does smell a bit off doesn't it. Kind of pathetic like a "Oh BTW NATO in case you didn't realise we have nukes. Are you surreeee you don't want to change your mind?"

Yeah exactly, it feels like he still thinks that threats are going to work. Puzzling.

[Maladict]

Maybe they'll just nuke Ukraine so no one can have it.