Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

Sure, but what is that best operational record? Sending enough prisoners in human wave attacks to capture a meaningless medium-sized city in a space of 8 months?

[FunkMonk]

My impression is that he took the mercs loyal to him (his best troops) on his march and left the dross back in Ukraine. So now his best buds get immunity and can fleece Russian assets in Africa or whatever.

Probably wrong about all this but I get the impression that maybe both sides got spooked by how quickly things happened and Pringles realized he actually could remove Putin from power, and I'm not convinced he actually wanted to do that.

[Duque de Bragança]

The main lesson here is that if you have your own private army in Russia you can march on Moscow and challenge Putin with relative impunity.

Yeah also Wagner seized Rostov without a shot fired and sent a fighting force from there all the way to the outskirts of Moscow in about 24 hours, which is impressive. What's priggy going to do next week? 

Fall out a window in Minsk.

Well, Minsk is 700 km of Moscow whereas Rostov to Moscow was a bit over 1000 km (1086 km by the M4 motorway). 

Could Lukashenko use him as some kind of protection against his "ally" Putin?

[Josquius]

Lukashenko was at deaths door just a few weeks ago remember. Surprising he was so actively involved... Or so they say.

Prigozen for president of Belarus? :p

[Razgovory]

Well, that was a weird day.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

So I guess what happened was that the Duke of Nova Rossiya was threatened to have their noble privileges removed, he got pissed and marched on the capital. Due to his weakness, the Tsar ended up making a deal (likely to preserve the Duke's privileges), and the conflict ended.

The thing is, Russia makes a whole lot more sense if you think of it as a medieval/feudal society.

wasn't the first Crusader Kings not originally developed by a bunch of Russians?

It started that way, but because they didn't seem to make fast enough progress, Paradox gave them the boot and took over.

Yep, that's how I remember it too.
Seems like a bit of a recurring theme, no?

Can't make a game, can't do a special operation, can't even do a coup it seems

[Tamas]

What's with civilians actually celebrating this bastard as he departs after a job well done? https://twitter.com/i/status/1672703994710441984

I think if public support is the only way for it to end, this war is going to go on for a long time. Bloody Russians.

[OttoVonBismarck]

My read on the current situation is Prigozhin, and maybe the troops who were marching north toward Moscow are being exiled to Belarus and basically taken out of the picture. It sounds like maybe all this was just Prigozhin's final gambit when he found out his arrest was imminent, what he's gotten out of it is a reprieve, but banishment to Belarus.

Lukashenko likely negotiated as Putin's proxy for two fold reasons:

1. Him giving Prigozhin "asylum" in Belarus can be seen as somewhat saving face for Putin--Prigo likely won't be on Russian airwaves again and likely is expected to stop sending out Telegram videos etc.

2. It avoids the spectacle of Putin being seen negotiating "directly" with Prigo, basically keeps the illusion that he is above the fray.

For Prigozhin this may have just been the best of bad options, simply allowing himself to be arrested probably doesn't end well for him--but it is hard to say that his banishment in Belarus will prove to be ultimately good for him, some time down the road who is to say if he accidentally ingests some Polonium or something.

For Wagner, it looks like the Wagnerites that weren't part of the march on Moscow are being forgiven and given Russian military contracts. The last update I saw said the ones marching on Moscow weren't part of that deal, but I'm not sure what becomes of them--they may just be getting some kind of amnesty but aren't being integrated into the Russian military? Maybe they aren't considered trustworthy enough.

Either way, the ultimate outcome is Wagner appears to be defanged, Prigozhin is out of Russia and likely out of Russian public life. If he is truly allowed to go off into the quiet sunset or if he'll be liquidated in the intermediate future, we will have to wait and see.

[Tamas]

Some Rostov citizens are not happy to see Wagner replaced by the old police forces: https://twitter.com/i/status/1672716909463195649

Sledghehammering mercenaries > Putin's police?

[HVC]

The part I don't get is you're dead either way, so why quit? You've known putin long enough, personally, to know you're dead. So why not chance the coup? They got to his family? His backers backed out (but still, the dead either way part, so even without support you've started). Sympathy for his troops (at least the closer ones). Just odd.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, although if he's permitted to retain a small "security force" for his personal protection, it would be genuinely harder to off him in Belarus than it is a typical Russian "target." Most people who Putin has knocked off covertly haven't had round the clock personal security--individuals like that (your typical oligarchs etc) generally are arrested and stripped of that sort of protection to facilitate their handling.

[Josephus]

If this happened in a Paradox game, players would scream for a patch

[Grey Fox]

I don't think he's actually going to Belarus. I think him & the actual mercs (not the vatniks & convicts) are going back to Africa.

[Tamas]

Browsing some Twitter comments under various posts, there's still a lot of people subscribed to the "Putin is playing and winning hard at 4D chess" idea. Ridiculous.

[Josquius]

If this happened in a Paradox game, players would scream for a patch

The player clearly reloaded as Wagner, white peaced, then switched back to Russia.