Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Jacob]

This is a really poor show by the German government, specifically chancellor Scholz.  There is no obvious, publicly known domestic reason not to do more.

Okay, so I went and downloaded the data - you can get it here (when I did it I got April 14th data).

In terms of total value of aid commitments, Germany is fourth after the US (who's outpacing everyone massively, good show), Poland, the UK in 3rd place. In terms of percentage of GDP, Germany is kind of mid-tables. Not particularly awesome - especially if they're supposed to be leaders - but pretty much the same as France and Italy (just a bit lower) and ahead of places like Finland, Latvia, Denmark, Netherlands, and Canada and bunch of other countries. If we include share of EU and EIB commitments, then Germany is the third largest contributor of aid in terms of absolute amount (and France and Italy move ahead of the UK as well).

The US and Poland deserves the most recognition for support, with a mention to Estonia for how much they've given relative to their size.

[Zanza]

Yes, but considering our continued dependence on Russian gas, no deliveries of heavy weapons and Germany's controversial role in the Minsk accords, we should compensate that with higher level of support now...

[Jacob]

Yes, but considering our continued dependence on Russian gas, no deliveries of heavy weapons and Germany's controversial role in the Minsk accords, we should compensate that with higher level of support now...

No argument from me on that account.

[jimmy olsen]

I cannot think of a single example in this thread of anyone referring to any specific Russian as an orc, but rather referring to them all as orcs.

You seem to have this exactly turned around.

As I said before, I'm perfectly happy dehumanizing the people who raped women and shot ziptied civilians, and bombed hospitals and train stations.

That is not an example of any specific Russian, but rather all of them, since you haven't identified even one.

Some groups, such as armies committing war crimes en masse, deserve to be dehumanized.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgD4w8y7LVI

Badass shooting

[Sheilbh]

Okay, so I went and downloaded the data - you can get it here (when I did it I got April 14th data).

In terms of total value of aid commitments, Germany is fourth after the US (who's outpacing everyone massively, good show), Poland, the UK in 3rd place. In terms of percentage of GDP, Germany is kind of mid-tables. Not particularly awesome - especially if they're supposed to be leaders - but pretty much the same as France and Italy (just a bit lower) and ahead of places like Finland, Latvia, Denmark, Netherlands, and Canada and bunch of other countries. If we include share of EU and EIB commitments, then Germany is the third largest contributor of aid in terms of absolute amount (and France and Italy move ahead of the UK as well).

The US and Poland deserves the most recognition for support, with a mention to Estonia for how much they've given relative to their size.

I'd slightly caution on that - they say it's a beta and there are issues. I've seen it do the rounds and if it encourages more aid then it's worth it but I'm not sure how accurate it is.

They note there's an issue they have around quantifying material support. I'm not sure we can compare military aid at this point in particular because different countries are taking very different approaches to announcing aid or support - I think it possibly reflects budget procedures in different countries.

So some countries like the US, or Estonia announce the dollar figure and provide a breakdown of numbers of x system they're sending. Others such as the UK, Lithuania, Slovenia have not disclosed a financial figure or a volume and seem to be deliberately vague. Other countries such as Italy or France announced a package at the start of the conflict, but have since gone on to make vague commitments of sending additional material or "what they need".

They've tried to address that challenge but I'm not sure how much I'd rely on those figures for military aid at this point. I don't know what "we'll provide what they need" (France) or sending "artillery" (UK) means in terms of volume or assistance. There's lot's of "no value given" items in the spreadsheet - especially around the military stuff and just practically I'd be astonished if the majority of UK aid was humanitarian right now, or that Poland's was primarily financial. That just doesn't match what we know from vague statements by those governments, the Ukrainian government and reporting of journalists. Poland's support has not mainly been a currency exchange between central banks - but my suspicion is because they're next to Russia they're probably being deliberately ambiguous about that side of things. I'd also be surprised if Lithuania and Latvia are that low - they might be sending less than Estonia but again given the wider reporting and comments from the Ukrainian government, I think they're doing more than is captured there.

It probably works better for the humanitarian/financial aid where there is normally a figure.

Although I think there's probably a challenge with financial too - for example, I know because I'm here, that the UK has guaranteed $1 billion World Bank support for Ukraine which is its largest financial support, but I don't know if you'd count that or how and I imagine that's a wider issue on the bilateral but through multilateral bodies bit. They seem to discount other humanitarian and financial aid for other countries that I've seen reported too - I'm not sure if it's possibly because technically it came from existing budgets, was through the World Bank/multilateral body or was announced pre-invasion. Canada's humanitarian and financial assistance for example seems lower than what I've seen reported elsewhere.

In fairness it's only a beta, and it is really good that someone's working on this - but I'd also like to see Australia, Japan and South Korea included (not least because I think their decision to get involved with aid and sanctions is really interesting - and an important choice). It won't necessarily be high but Australia's sent $100 million of defence assistance, Japan's providing $200 million of financial aid - so they're not nothing.

Edit: And Baerbock has announced that Germany will no longer be providing a breakdown of what military aid it's  providing.

[Sheilbh]

Yes, but considering our continued dependence on Russian gas, no deliveries of heavy weapons and Germany's controversial role in the Minsk accords, we should compensate that with higher level of support now...

What is the driver? I read correspondents and commentators in Germany on Scholz's statement last night and the sense I got was one of genuine dismay.

Part of it seemed to be perhaps around Scholz himself, but a lot also said about the influence of Schroeder and SPD figures seen to be linked to him. It struck me as odd - and wondered the extent to which that's true? And if it is how it is that a former leader who was Chancellor almost 20 years ago still has that sort of influence over the SPD, while it seems the CDU has found it easier to pivot from what was also Merkel's policy just months after she left office?

It seems really counter-intuitive to me that the CDU seems comfortable breaking with Merkel's policy within a space of months, while Shcroeder's still holds some sway within the SPD 17 years later.

[The Brain]

Schröder may still be channeling Russian money to some people in the SPD leadership.

[Zanza]

No idea what his motivation is.

It could be that the Bundeswehr is really so short of (working) material that they can't spare any.

It could be internal party power politics - not Schröder though, he has no influence anymore. But there are plenty other russophiles and pacifists in the party.

It could be something else.

I would not give anything on the CDU. They are just doing what opposition parties do and attack the government while not having to take own responsibility. While they are likely not to follow Merkel's domestic policies, I don't see anything that makes me believe they would follow a significantly different foreign policy than her.

[Josquius]

. [quote author=Sheilbh .

So some countries like the US, or Estonia announce the dollar figure and provide a breakdown of numbers of x system they're sending. Others such as the UK, Lithuania, Slovenia have not disclosed a financial figure or a volume and seem to be deliberately vague. Other countries such as Italy or France announced a package at the start of the conflict, but have since gone on to make vague commitments of sending additional material or "what they need".

They've tried to address that challenge but I'm not sure how much I'd rely on those figures for military aid at this point. I don't know what "we'll provide what they need" (France) or sending "artillery" (UK) means in terms of volume or assistance. There's lot's of "no value given" items in the spreadsheet - especially around the military stuff and just practically I'd be astonished if the majority of UK aid was humanitarian right now, or that Poland's was primarily financial. That just doesn't match what we know from vague statements by those governments, the Ukrainian government and reporting of journalists. Poland's support has not mainly been a currency exchange between central banks - but my suspicion is because they're next to Russia they're probably being deliberately ambiguous about that side of things. I'd also be surprised if Lithuania and Latvia are that low - they might be sending less than Estonia but again given the wider reporting and comments from the Ukrainian government, I think they're doing more than is captured there.

It probably works better for the humanitarian/financial aid where there is normally a figure.

Although I think there's probably a challenge with financial too - for example, I know because I'm here, that the UK has guaranteed $1 billion World Bank support for Ukraine which is its largest financial support, but I don't know if you'd count that or how and I imagine that's a wider issue on the bilateral but through multilateral bodies bit. They seem to discount other humanitarian and financial aid for other countries that I've seen reported too - I'm not sure if it's possibly because technically it came from existing budgets, was through the World Bank/multilateral body or was announced pre-invasion. Canada's humanitarian and financial assistance for example seems lower than what I've seen reported elsewhere.


[/quote]

Given Lithuania and Latvia have an iffier Russian situation than Estonia I bet their government is actively trying to downplay what they are doing for domestic consumption as much as they're trying to do a lot given they're next on the list potentially.

[Berkut]

I cannot think of a single example in this thread of anyone referring to any specific Russian as an orc, but rather referring to them all as orcs.

You seem to have this exactly turned around.

As I said before, I'm perfectly happy dehumanizing the people who raped women and shot ziptied civilians, and bombed hospitals and train stations.

That is not an example of any specific Russian, but rather all of them, since you haven't identified even one.

Some groups, such as armies committing war crimes en masse, deserve to be dehumanized.

Irony much?

[Legbiter]

According to this article the Ukrainians have received additional fighter jets from an unknown source (kurwa). 

Kyiv's air force has "more operable fighter aircraft than they had two weeks ago," Kirby told reporters Tuesday.

Donations of airplanes, and airplane parts, made it possible. "I would just say, without getting into what other nations are providing, that they have received additional platforms and parts to be able to increase their fleet size," Kirby said.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/19/the-ukrainian-air-force-just-got-bigger-it-seems-someone-gave-kyiv-more-mig-29s/?sh=7ef93d353c8b

[The Brain]

According to this article the Ukrainians have received additional fighter jets from an unknown source (kurwa). 

Kyiv's air force has "more operable fighter aircraft than they had two weeks ago," Kirby told reporters Tuesday.

Donations of airplanes, and airplane parts, made it possible. "I would just say, without getting into what other nations are providing, that they have received additional platforms and parts to be able to increase their fleet size," Kirby said.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/19/the-ukrainian-air-force-just-got-bigger-it-seems-someone-gave-kyiv-more-mig-29s/?sh=7ef93d353c8b

Kirby?

[PJL]

I wondered if was possible to break up those old Migs from Poland etc and ship them via road. At the very least they should be mothballing them for spare parts to send on to Ukraine.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah that feels like it has to be Poland and someone's possibly providing them with some form of replacement.