Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[The Brain]

Remember that the Russians are suffering from the effects of the "Putin Takes Command" card.

[Jacob]

So apparently the German government removed basically all the heavy weaponry from the list of equipment they're willing to sell Ukraine (according to Bild, I believe).

Is this true? And what's going on there?

[Legbiter]

He's been singing the "We need to mobilize or we're DOOMED" tune for weeks now. For once, I hope that piece of junk is right.

Yeah he can see the unfolding disaster for the Russians bleeding themselves out in a logistics war against a high-morale Ukraine with unlimited NATO Lend-Lease but can't do anything except bitch at it. His posts always cheer me up.

[Legbiter]

Btw, this is the guy who's been nonstop doomposting forever now.







The Dutch have a murder charge out on him for the shooting-down of Malaysia Airlines flight 17.

[Josquius]

...man does he look like he belongs on languish

[Zanza]

So apparently the German government removed basically all the heavy weaponry from the list of equipment they're willing to sell Ukraine (according to Bild, I believe).

Is this true? And what's going on there?

What list is that supposed to be? Ukrainian demands maybe? Germany has so far not promised any heavy weapons. The official argument is that the Bundeswehr needs all its equipment itself.
I understood that Germany will offer money and allow exports of newly made weapons, including heavy weapons.

[Sheilbh]

It's the contents of the list that I think is now contentious. I don't think it's been released there are some items that might classify as heavy weapons (which is a really broad/unclear term that adds to the confusion I think). From what I've read the Ukrainians are complaining that the items they need are generally not on the list - and they do pretty open lists of the material they want/need (see that video of Zelenskiy).

Also - from a distance - providing aid to buy weapons from German manufacturers off a list approved by Berlin sounds more like an industrial/stimulus police for the arms industry to me.

[Malthus]

But if Russia is now on a 2:1 advantage, that could tip things quite a bit.

It may be pretty insufficient if every siege is going to be like Mariopol. And it is not unlikely that every siege will be like Mariopol.
Russia is throwing away an entire generation of men they basically can't afford to lose, demographically.

Another factor that you see mentioned a lot in military commentary: interior lines.

Ukraine has an advantage in that they have interior lines of communication. The Russians are attacking essentially to encircle. This factor was even worse with their original plan of course, but still holds true for their current plan.

This means that the Ukrainians, all things being equal, would have an easier time moving their troops and weapons around to face each attack; they can concentrate their forces at key points, to gain temporary superiority there (while leaving other points lightly defended).

This strategy relies on them knowing where the key points are going to be - but the Russian battle plan is pretty obvious, plus the Ukrainians have US military intel, which had proved excellent so far.

I assume the Ukrainian plan is to wear out the Russian forces with a tenacious defence, then counterattack when the Russian morale has broken.

[Eddie Teach]

But if Russia is now on a 2:1 advantage, that could tip things quite a bit.

It may be pretty insufficient if every siege is going to be like Mariopol. And it is not unlikely that every siege will be like Mariopol.
Russia is throwing away an entire generation of men they basically can't afford to lose, demographically.

They can (continue to?) follow Paraguay's playbook and legalize polygamy.

[Jacob]

What list is that supposed to be? Ukrainian demands maybe? Germany has so far not promised any heavy weapons. The official argument is that the Bundeswehr needs all its equipment itself.
I understood that Germany will offer money and allow exports of newly made weapons, including heavy weapons.

The story said:

1) German arms industry said they could offer X Y Z
2) German government said to Ukraine, pick what you want from that list
3) German government revised list, removing most or all of the heavy weapons Ukraine desires most

... could be social media distortion, though

[Jacob]

Apparently Russia has become a massive cyber target after the war started, resulting in a massive amount of compromised sites and massive leaks: https://twitter.com/micahflee/status/1516521193808875527

[viper37]

I think the question is more about the reaction of the general population to a sudden draft of young men.

I believe the women who give their husbands permission to rape Ukrainian women are going to be fine with conscription.  Come back with your shield or on it sort of thing.

[Valmy]

Apparently Russia has become a massive cyber target after the war started, resulting in a massive amount of compromised sites and massive leaks: https://twitter.com/micahflee/status/1516521193808875527

You know it is rough to see this. I suppose it has been this way since Ivan the Terrible but the Russian people are really easy to like and you empathize with their struggles and you admire their intelligence and achievements but then their leaders are just so much worse than most other countries. So when this kind of misfortune occurs (granted almost always partially if not fully inflicted by their own leaders) it definitely leaves you with mixed feelings.

[viper37]

Russia is throwing away an entire generation of men they basically can't afford to lose, demographically.

There's plenty more where they came from.

Given their level of performance until now, raw conscripts can't be much worst.

[viper37]

If the nationalists want it, it is going to be very difficult for Putin to not deliver, not have success, and then survive as leader. He won't have a powerbase left. If you are going to push a radical policy that only a minority of the population wants, you can survive as an antidemocratic dictator but not if you alienate that minority in the process.

Putin's power base is the security services.  Nothing more, nothing less.

He has a lot of support in the general population and no organized opposition left standing.