Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[celedhring]

Looks like that Russian doomstack heading towards Kiev is running into issues.

Jack Detsch
@JackDetsch

NEW: Russia's 40-mile long tank, artillery, and supply convoy moving toward Kyiv has mostly "stalled," per a senior U.S. defense official.

"We don't believe that it is making a lot of progress," the official said, partly due to supply troubles.

Jack Detsch
@JackDetsch
·
42m
NEW: Russia's 40-mile long military convoy of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery is "not moving at great speed," per senior US defense official.

Satellite photos showed the convoy 17mi outside of Kyiv. US is seeing Russian columns "literally out of gas," the official said.

I mean, keeping such a huge deployment supplied must be hell, and it's not like the Russians have exhibited great logistics so far.

[Josephus]

This Spanish channel seems to have taken Putin's denazification claims too literally 

Maybe the Ukrainians are raiding the museum cupboards for armaments

[FunkMonk]

Looks like that Russian doomstack heading towards Kiev is running into issues.

Jack Detsch
@JackDetsch

NEW: Russia's 40-mile long tank, artillery, and supply convoy moving toward Kyiv has mostly "stalled," per a senior U.S. defense official.

"We don't believe that it is making a lot of progress," the official said, partly due to supply troubles.

Jack Detsch
@JackDetsch
·
42m
NEW: Russia's 40-mile long military convoy of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery is "not moving at great speed," per senior US defense official.

Satellite photos showed the convoy 17mi outside of Kyiv. US is seeing Russian columns "literally out of gas," the official said.

I mean, keeping such a huge deployment supplied must be hell, and it's not like the Russians have exhibited great logistics so far.

Clearly not veteran EU players. Never put your doomstacks in low supply provinces.

[The Brain]

The AI has never been great.

[Zanza]

Latest map from UK MoD

If the Northern troops around Charkiv join up with the Southern troops from Crimea in Zaphorzhzhie or Dnipro, the Ukrainians East of that holding against the Donbass front will be cut off.

[Sheilbh]

Fucking fearless: https://twitter.com/jelle_simons/status/1498649109846241281?s=20&t=T_Y9yBPmhjgYwIk_obeQ1w


This won't end without Russia giving up or having to machine gun down civilians.

Yeah it's incredibly brave and admirable - there are so many videos of this sort of behaviour from Kupyansk and Melitopol etc, all of which are Russian-speaking areas. It seems likely that in the end either that crowd stops being peaceful or those troops start firing but I am really struck by the reluctance that we're seeing on lots of videos from Russian troops to hurt civilians. I think that is the other route of an end to Putin is popular uprising/palace coup/army mutinies (move to strictly defensive posture say).

It really feels like they didn't do the work to whip up a fervour for a war beforehand - probably because they thought it would be over in a few days.

Mentioned before but the Belarussian troops will probaby be even more reluctant, adding a uniquely "Spanish sailors at Trafalgar" vibe to all of this. I really can't see them being keen on really pushing matters.

I couldn't think of one but I was wondering if people had other examples of an act of "fraternal conquest" like this - at least since the rise of nationalism? In my head wars between people basically speaking the same language are either dissolution/civil war which this isn't or popular/unifying conflict which this isn't. I'm sure there's some I'm missing but it seems very unique.

And for all their talk of "protecting Russians" they sure as heck shoot the shit of Kharkiv which is, I think, a pretty Russian city, all things considered.

Yeah there are loads of Russian speaking Ukrainians but it's not the same as having a Russian identity - and I think the Ukrainian-ness of those people (and all Ukrainians) has massively increased since 2014 because there's nothing quite like an invasion to galvanise a sense of nationhood. It's like the UK invading Ireland to liberate English-speaking Irish people

I read something that Russians approached Odessa from the sea today but stopped again, supposedly because their marines refused to attack the city. But that might just be propaganda, wishful thinking, misinterpretation, or all at the same time.

I saw footage of people making preparations to repulse a landing at Odessa and it was personally the most surreal moment because I've been on that beach and it's like like the British seaside. It's not an elegant European style beach where everyone's slim, well tanned and drinking aperol - there's loads of amusements, carousels for the kids, stalls selling lard or hot dogs and beer etc. I loved it. But there's just something very weird in my head about the idea of an amphibious landing happening metres from slot machines and one of those cranes to pick up soft toys.

[Sheilbh]

Again - I am a sucker for this stuff I get very emotional over displays of solidarity - but there's something incredibly moving about images of people protesting in Sarajevo given the risks to Bosnia now and the fact that it looks like we are close to a siege of Kyiv

[Zanza]

All of Gerhard Schröder's tax payer financed staff quit their jobs.

[Jacob]

All of Gerhard Schröder's tax payer financed staff quit their jobs.

Heh

[DGuller]

Hopefully the Russian influence campaign in the West completely crumbles because of this war, and their most fervent assets wind up ostracized or worse.

[Jacob]

Intersting set of posts on how Russia is apparently fumbling their propaganda war at home as much as the offensive in Ukraine: https://imgur.com/gallery/6mycNaY

(same thing as a twitter thread: https://twitter.com/irgarner/status/1498334656353218560 )

[Jacob]

Hopefully the Russian influence campaign in the West completely crumbles because of this war, and their most fervent assets wind up ostracized or worse.

It would be wonderful.

[HVC]

All of Gerhard Schröder's tax payer financed staff quit their jobs.

Why does he have staff paid by the state?

[Habbaku]

All of Gerhard Schröder's tax payer financed staff quit their jobs.

Why does he have staff paid by the state?

The same reason former US Presidents and family get Secret Service protections? I think it's reasonable.

[Legbiter]

Looks like that Russian doomstack heading towards Kiev is running into issues.

Jack Detsch
@JackDetsch

NEW: Russia's 40-mile long tank, artillery, and supply convoy moving toward Kyiv has mostly "stalled," per a senior U.S. defense official.

"We don't believe that it is making a lot of progress," the official said, partly due to supply troubles.

Jack Detsch
@JackDetsch
·
42m
NEW: Russia's 40-mile long military convoy of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery is "not moving at great speed," per senior US defense official.

Satellite photos showed the convoy 17mi outside of Kyiv. US is seeing Russian columns "literally out of gas," the official said.

I mean, keeping such a huge deployment supplied must be hell, and it's not like the Russians have exhibited great logistics so far.

Would be great if the Ukrainians have their own Mannerheim and could cut it into motti. A real shame they don't seem to have any artillery nearby.