Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Larch]

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

An "urgent evacuation" of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.

[celedhring]

Rats, sinking ship, order of leaving.

[Syt]

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

An "urgent evacuation" of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.

I'd like to believe that. But I think it might also be that no such flight is happening, but they want to create a climate where people think it's happening to then trigger it.

"Nonsense, there's no evacuation. But then again, I haven't seen Sergei Ivanovich and Oleg Petrovich since last week and they weren't at the meeting yesterday ... maybe I should get ready. You know, just to be safe."

[Jacob]

Sure.  But I suspect that without a critical mass of support for Russia, a minority could not have imposed their agenda on an unwilling minority.

If that minority had guns and the support of the Russian secret services, perhaps they could.

[The Larch]

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

An "urgent evacuation" of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.

I'd like to believe that. But I think it might also be that no such flight is happening, but they want to create a climate where people think it's happening to then trigger it.

"Nonsense, there's no evacuation. But then again, I haven't seen Sergei Ivanovich and Oleg Petrovich since last week and they weren't at the meeting yesterday ... maybe I should get ready. You know, just to be safe."

Yes, that's always sosmething to take into consideration when some official news seem to good to be true, that they're actually part of some psy op campaign.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Sure.  But I suspect that without a critical mass of support for Russia, a minority could not have imposed their agenda on an unwilling minority.

If that minority had guns and the support of the Russian secret services, perhaps they could.

Even without the Russians there's more than enough examples of minorities imposing their will on unwilling majorities over the centuries

[viper37]

Liberating the Donbas and Crimea would present similar problems as occupying Russia because of the pro-Russian sentiments of the people there.

You have no way of knowing the sentiments of the people there. No one does since 2014.

Yeah. I wouldn't necessarily take the Russian narrative that Crimea and Donbas yearned to be one with Russia. Even if true, it's not a given that those sentiments remain true today.

It's possible it's true, but I think the Russian occupation and style of governance may have turned some people against Russia.

Anyone not pro Russia has long disappeared from there.

If so, why is this necessary?

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/12/7367121/index.amp

This, among other reports:
https://www.hrw.org/news/2014/10/07/crimea-enforced-disappearances
https://khpg.org/en/1401575021
https://unpo.org/article/19353
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/10/europe/crimea-russia-missing-activist-danylovich-intl-cmd/index.html

Most people, I guess, were keeping their heads down and staying quiet.  As Russians are beaten and withdrawing, things may change.  There is also counter propaganda by Ukraine that is a possibility.

[PRC]

[Josquius]

Poor horse. What's he ever done?

Given the source I am skeptical of that article on Russians fleeing crimea. Though hopefully it has the desired impact.

[The Brain]

Poor horse. What's he ever done?

Exactly. He did nothing.

[crazy canuck]

Brilliant!

[HVC]

I was thinking Gulliver travel reference, but what's up with the horse (that looks suspiciously cow like)

[Grey Fox]

[Admiral Yi]

The Crimea evacuation rumor doesn't make sense to me.  Crimea is behind the lines, not in imminent danger of being overrun.  Surely if they were going to evacuate it would be places closer to the front.

[The Brain]

The Crimea evacuation rumor doesn't make sense to me.  Crimea is behind the lines, not in imminent danger of being overrun.  Surely if they were going to evacuate it would be places closer to the front.

The rumor speaks of "Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders". Of those only military commanders occasionally visit the front to get themselves killed, and even they don't live there. And waiting to sell your house until the Ukrainians are at the gate may not be a great idea.