Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Zoupa]

Liberating the Donbas and Crimea would present similar problems as occupying Russia because of the pro-Russian sentiments of the people there.

You have no way of knowing the sentiments of the people there. No one does since 2014.

[Jacob]

Liberating the Donbas and Crimea would present similar problems as occupying Russia because of the pro-Russian sentiments of the people there.

You have no way of knowing the sentiments of the people there. No one does since 2014.

Yeah. I wouldn't necessarily take the Russian narrative that Crimea and Donbas yearned to be one with Russia. Even if true, it's not a given that those sentiments remain true today.

It's possible it's true, but I think the Russian occupation and style of governance may have turned some people against Russia.

[Admiral Yi]

You have no way of knowing the sentiments of the people there. No one does since 2014.

I have some way of knowing the sentiments of the people there.  Election results before the Donbas rebellion.  The fact that inhabitants have been fighting against Ukraine.

[Sheilbh]

I have some way of knowing the sentiments of the people there.  Election results before the Donbas rebellion.  The fact that inhabitants have been fighting against Ukraine.

The same could be said of Odessa and Kharkiv based on pre-2014 elections - or the neighbouring regions that are very similar. The secessionists didn't have enough support in 2014 to not require Russia to get involved.

Some are fighting but that might be because they're anti-Ukraine, it might because there are collaborators, it may just be because they're under occupation (there have been reports of mutinies in DNR forces due to a perception they're being used as cannon fodder).

[DGuller]

You have no way of knowing the sentiments of the people there. No one does since 2014.

I have some way of knowing the sentiments of the people there.  Election results before the Donbas rebellion.  The fact that inhabitants have been fighting against Ukraine.

While it is true that Donbas was the strongest supporter of Yanukovich, it was only a matter of degree.  The rest of southern Ukraine was only slightly less pro-Yanokovich, and yet the Russians did not feel too welcome there this year.  I would also stay away from the word "rebellion", because it's very likely that this "rebellion" was a (barely) covert Russian invasion from the very beginning.

[FunkMonk]

America would never abandon the Kardashians to their fate.

Yeah the situation with Armenia is an odd one. Americans are certainly more prone to support Armenia despite the geopolitical problems this causes us.

When I was in Yerevan I ordered a cocktail named after Kim Kardashian. The waiter laughed. It was too fruity for my taste but I drank it with gusto anyway.

So I support Armenia.

[Admiral Yi]

The same could be said of Odessa and Kharkiv based on pre-2014 elections - or the neighbouring regions that are very similar.

If your point is that it's not safe to assume all Ukrainians *not* in the Donbas or Crimea are monolithicly 100% slava Ukraina/fuck Putin, I agree.  There were those high ranking military dudes who got arrested for passing information, and I've seen clips of pro-Russian civilians getting arrested for espionage or some such.

The secessionists didn't have enough support in 2014 to not require Russia to get involved.

I don't see how this is relevant.

Some are fighting but that might be because they're anti-Ukraine, it might because there are collaborators, it may just be because they're under occupation (there have been reports of mutinies in DNR forces due to a perception they're being used as cannon fodder).

Sure.  But I suspect that without a critical mass of support for Russia, a minority could not have imposed their agenda on an unwilling minority.

[Berkut]

Sure.  But I suspect that without a critical mass of support for Russia, a minority could not have imposed their agenda on an unwilling minority.

I think a minority of people with guns and support from a gigantic neighboring belligerent power can most definitely impose their agenda on an unwilling majority.

[DGuller]

In addition to all the arguments already stated, I would also question the assumption that the meaning of being pro-Russian in 2013 and 2022 has remained the same.  Maybe in 2013 being pro-Russian meant that you would prefer to continue speaking the Russian language, and you'd rather be subservient to Russian oligarchs rather than Ukrainian ones.  In 2022, when Ukraine for the first truly developed a national identity that extended beyond the western part of the country, previously pro-Russian Ukrainians may no longer regarded themselves as such.

[Duque de Bragança]

Not a fan of all this Bilhorod business.  It's Belgorod, a city in Russia, a country that speaks Russian and uses Russian names for cities.  Calling it by a Ukrainian name signals aggressive intentions towards undisputed Russian territory, which I don't think is the message Ukraine is interested in sending.

Plus B(i)elgorod is already of common use in other languages, sometimes adapted cf. the added "i".

[Zanza]

There are reports that Russia has withdrawn from the Northern Luhansk area.

[viper37]

Liberating the Donbas and Crimea would present similar problems as occupying Russia because of the pro-Russian sentiments of the people there.

You have no way of knowing the sentiments of the people there. No one does since 2014.

Yeah. I wouldn't necessarily take the Russian narrative that Crimea and Donbas yearned to be one with Russia. Even if true, it's not a given that those sentiments remain true today.

It's possible it's true, but I think the Russian occupation and style of governance may have turned some people against Russia.

Anyone not pro Russia has long disappeared from there.

[Josquius]

Liberating the Donbas and Crimea would present similar problems as occupying Russia because of the pro-Russian sentiments of the people there.

You have no way of knowing the sentiments of the people there. No one does since 2014.

Yeah. I wouldn't necessarily take the Russian narrative that Crimea and Donbas yearned to be one with Russia. Even if true, it's not a given that those sentiments remain true today.

It's possible it's true, but I think the Russian occupation and style of governance may have turned some people against Russia.

Anyone not pro Russia has long disappeared from there.

A lot of the pro Russians have been killed or left for practical reasons too. Lots of fairly moderate people in the middle no doubt and even pro Russians who will have shifted their view also.

Then there'll be those who left and might want to go home. The Tatars for instance. I guess we're lucky only a short amount of time has passed so we shouldn't see a proper ethnic cleansing situation and the legalities of living in someones house should be clear

[Josephus]

I find the punitive shelling of civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv especially disdainful. Fucking barbarians.

Yes - but also pathetic and futile.

That's all they have left. They aren't a threat to Kharkiv or Kyiv any more so all they can do is kill civilians from a distance in cities they have no hope of taking.

I read something in Foreign Affairs which said much the same. Russia is running out of weapons and is apparently trying to make a deal to get some from North Korea.

[Malthus]

Liberating the Donbas and Crimea would present similar problems as occupying Russia because of the pro-Russian sentiments of the people there.

You have no way of knowing the sentiments of the people there. No one does since 2014.

Yeah. I wouldn't necessarily take the Russian narrative that Crimea and Donbas yearned to be one with Russia. Even if true, it's not a given that those sentiments remain true today.

It's possible it's true, but I think the Russian occupation and style of governance may have turned some people against Russia.

Anyone not pro Russia has long disappeared from there.

If so, why is this necessary?

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/12/7367121/index.amp