Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Solmyr]

Yeah, if you've ever played Diplomacy you know that Turkey and Russia are not natural allies.

We know that from EU and Victoria too.

[Solmyr]

If this infographic is to be believed, then China is the single biggest importer from the grain deal

Zelensky just added some fuel to the fire by saying that the 60k tons of grain Russia just destroyed in Odessa were meant for China.

[Josquius]

Russia is clearly deliberately targeting the ports now, so any plausible deniabilty is long gone for them.

I guess it all depends how connected the Chinese buyer was. And how much Russia is willing to compensate.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, if you've ever played Diplomacy you know that Turkey and Russia are not natural allies.

No but if they trust each other they can dominate the board

[Duque de Bragança]

Yeah, if you've ever played Diplomacy you know that Turkey and Russia are not natural allies.

No but if they trust each other they can dominate the board

Trust in Diplomacy? 

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, if you've ever played Diplomacy you know that Turkey and Russia are not natural allies.

No but if they trust each other they can dominate the board

Trust in Diplomacy? 

That is why you don't see it very often.  So Jacob's point generally holds.

But I took the plunge as the Ottomans in an online game and decided I would stay loyal to Russia - it turned out Russia did as well.  And we swept the board.

It is certainly harder for the Ottomans to risk it, there were several times in the game when Russia could have done serious damage to me when I was supporting their moves. 

[OttoVonBismarck]

You guys do realize Erdogan derailed his country's participation in the F-35 program--which they were actually slated to help build them. Not only has it neutered his country's future, including saddling them with worse planes than their rivals Greece, it has cost many Turkish jobs and billions of dollars for their economy? All to show independence from the United States and closeness to Russia. I think you're all pretty seriously underestimating the degree to which Erdogan was playing footsy with Putin.

[Jacob]

Maybe Turkey can get some Gripen from Sweden?

[viper37]

Maybe Turkey can get some Gripen from Sweden?

From a Coran-burning country?
That might not go so well.

[HVC]

Maybe Turkey can get some Gripen from Sweden?

From a Coran-burning country?
That might not go so well.

They're more likely to arm the Kurds over the Turks anyway. 

[viper37]

If this infographic is to be believed, then China is the single biggest importer from the grain deal

The image seems to be deleted now.

[Jacob]

Maybe Turkey can get some Gripen from Sweden?

From a Coran-burning country?
That might not go so well.

That was the joke 

[Josquius]

Could you even get gripens if you wanted anymore? I understood they failed to sell them and the production line is now gone.

[DGuller]

It seems like everyone agrees now that Wagner lost 20,000 of their own as dead.  It really makes me wonder just how reliable the overall Ukrainian figures are about Russian casualties in that case.  For a long stretch of time it seemed like Wagner did most of the fighting, and fighting on offense at that, and often with untrained convict meat.  If that was good for only 20,000 dead, then how plausible is it that the other 9,980,000 or so Russian dead are legit?  Is regular Russian military so much worse?

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think the reputable sources of total Russian dead are from the US DOD which have been in the 50-60k range, my understanding is subsequent research has basically confirmed those numbers based on scraping Russian inheritance data.

I am not clear on if that figure includes mercenaries like Wagners or not.

Total casualties (which US DOD elaborated to mean casualties causing permanent military incapacity) were around 125k or something, which is around the size of the original invasion force.