Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Razgovory]

Russian guy I have been following on Youtube seems to agree with the Ukrainian assessment that general mobilisation and total war is imminent, and lists several reasons he is seeing in Russia to base this on: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNrBJynx_I4

Sorry, but I'm not watching 1 hour 40 minutes of that.

[Tamas]

Russian guy I have been following on Youtube seems to agree with the Ukrainian assessment that general mobilisation and total war is imminent, and lists several reasons he is seeing in Russia to base this on: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNrBJynx_I4

Sorry, but I'm not watching 1 hour 40 minutes of that.

The meaningful part of it is the first half an hour or so, afterwards he just reacts to comments.

[Josquius]

Interesting programme on BBC 2 last night. Ukraine the people's war.
Reporter embedded with a Ukrainian unit in the run up to the kherson offensive.
Amazing how amateur and under armed they are - which really highlights how Awful the Russians must be.
Much of the episode revolves around trying to mortar a Russian position and failing each time.

[Admiral Yi]

Interesting programme on BBC 2 last night. Ukraine the people's war.
Reporter embedded with a Ukrainian unit in the run up to the kherson offensive.
Amazing how amateur and under armed they are - which really highlights how Awful the Russians must be.
Much of the episode revolves around trying to mortar a Russian position and failing each time.

Read an article a while back, can't remember where, that said the Ukrainians were fighting primarily by firing off massive amounts of foreign-supplied ordinance.  And that the suppliers were saying to the Ukrainians hey ease up on that shit.  Which is consistent with tactically less proficient Ukrainian troops.

[Sheilbh]

Well also it must be an absolute nightmare for the Ukrainian quartermasters having to deal with very necessary and welcome weapons systems provided by various Western friends - but that probably all need different spare parts, ammo etc.

[Tamas]

Interesting programme on BBC 2 last night. Ukraine the people's war.
Reporter embedded with a Ukrainian unit in the run up to the kherson offensive.
Amazing how amateur and under armed they are - which really highlights how Awful the Russians must be.
Much of the episode revolves around trying to mortar a Russian position and failing each time.

Read an article a while back, can't remember where, that said the Ukrainians were fighting primarily by firing off massive amounts of foreign-supplied ordinance.  And that the suppliers were saying to the Ukrainians hey ease up on that shit.  Which is consistent with tactically less proficient Ukrainian troops.

I am not sure its tactical inability. Going up mano y mano especially when you are on the attack does not sound like a good idea for Ukraine - sure Russians have near-zero morale and conscripts and whatnot but the one single thing the Russians have a long-term advantage in is sheer numbers. Destroying those numbers without the numbers being able to shoot back seems like an optimal strategy for me.

We (as in the West) just need to start producing more ammo.

[Threviel]

We (as in the West) just need to start producing more ammo.

Yes, the US for example just invested in 40% increased artillery ammunition production meaning that sometime in 2025 or so they'll be able to supply 15% of Ukrainian needs instead of 10%... (numbers from memory, go check it out)

We should have increased production of everything in March, but we didn't and here we are. Unless the west full on mobilizes production WWII style we will not be able to supply Ukraine medium/long term with enough equipment for a total war.

So yes, it is very much in the interest of Ukraine to be conservative with western resources. Their primary concern right now seems to be medium AA which we can't supply very well.

[Josquius]

In terms of ammo, Ukraine seems to have a big problem closing in on them with their large number of Soviet weapons where new ammo just isn't being made anywhere they can buy it.
In a certain amount of time a large number of their weapons will become useless.

[Threviel]

Soviet ammo shouldn't be extremely complex and Ukraine is industrialised enough that it ought to be able to set up local production. I haven't read anything about that, have anyone else?

Edit: It would probably be far easier to finance steel and explosives for a Ukraininan factory for western nations.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Soviet ammo shouldn't be extremely complex and Ukraine is industrialised enough that it ought to be able to set up local production. I haven't read anything about that, have anyone else?

Edit: It would probably be far easier to finance steel and explosives for a Ukraininan factory for western nations.

don't remember where I saw it but there was some news on that a while back that Ukraine had managed to start up (additional?) domestic production of soviets style ammo for their artillery. I guess that'll continue to ramp up as long as the war is on.

[Threviel]

Yeah, during WWI the powers were able to setup huge production lines in just 1-2 years, so at about around now Ukrainian production should start to make an impact.

Of course there are issues with bombing, but I also assume that it should be easier to setup production today than a hundred years ago.

Ukraine is of course a hyper corrupt shit hole, I don't know how that affects stuff.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Of course there are issues with bombing, but I also assume that it should be easier to setup production today than a hundred years ago.

as long as repairs are made the bombing should be manageable, especially in the amount the Russians are doing it, given past experience (i.e. german production rising despite mass bombing campaigns). But who knows.
One way or another Russia needs to be broken sooner rather than later.

[Legbiter]

Ukrainians killing about 700 Russian soldiers with HIMARS strikes per day since Christmas because the mobiks are all very concentrated into warm housing. Putin's going to have to mobilize more meat soon. 

[The Larch]

Putin has announced a 36 hour ceasefire for Christmas (the Orthodox one).

[Josquius]

Putin has announced a 36 hour ceasefire for Christmas (the Orthodox one).

Expect the biggest attack of the war tonight?