Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

We have regionalised Chinese and Indian food, but not (yet) regionalised Canadian food I'm afraid

[Valmy]

That's insulting.

No part of my Quebec culture is Canadian. They spent 250 years calling us Canadian has a derogatory term opposite to their English nation and then co-opted the name when they needed an identity independent of England.

That very statement suggests that you guys are the OG Canadiens.

[Grey Fox]

That's insulting.

No part of my Quebec culture is Canadian. They spent 250 years calling us Canadian has a derogatory term opposite to their English nation and then co-opted the name when they needed an identity independent of England.

That very statement suggests that you guys are the OG Canadiens.

That's an interesting question. Did Canada exist before the split of Province of Quebec in 1791? If yes, the OGs are probably the Omàmiwininìs. If not, then both Canada were created simultaneously, neither groups can claim sole ownership.

[Sheilbh]

Not particularly on the war but I absolutely loved this piece on the resonances of Brian Friel's work in Ukraine:

From Ballybeg to Bakhmut: why Ukrainians embrace Brian Friel's Translations
Updated / Sunday, 26 Feb 2023 15:05

Translations being performed at Ukraine's National Academy Drama Theatre in wartime Kyiv
By Tony Connelly
Europe Editor

"[Irish] is a rich language ... full of the mythologies of fantasy and hope and self-deception - a syntax opulent with tomorrows," muses Hugh, the hedge school teacher in Ballybeg, on a stage littered with few props except hay bales and some kitchen utensils.

He is reflecting on his conversation with Lieutenant Yolland, the British army engineer sent to the fictional Irish-speaking village in Co Donegal with the Ordnance Survey.

"It is our response to mud cabins and a diet of potatoes; our only method of replying to ... inevitabilities."

Brian Friel's Translations is about language and the inability to communicate, and also about cultural imperialism as the Ordnance Survey sets about anglicising Gaelic place names.

But Hugh is played by Oleksandr Kobzar, and we are not in the Abbey Theatre, Dublin but in Ukraine's National Academy Drama Theatre in wartime Kyiv.

I caught up with the drama troupe just before the 5pm performance, as air-raid sirens sounded throughout the capital.

Director Kyrylo Kashlikov selected Translations to be performed in 2020, but the production was held up by the Covid-19 pandemic.

He had already directed Martin McDonagh's The Cripple of Inishmaan but was drawn back to the Irish dramatical canon by the contemporary crisis in Ukraine after Russia had invaded Crimea in 2014.

"During this past eight years, we have been thinking about the loss of the identity of Ukraine," says Anastasye Pavlenko, assistant producer.

"So we decided to choose this play, because we feel a connection between our situation and the situation in Ireland many years ago."

The director, Kyrylo Kashlikov, says: "When you start forbidding people from speaking the language they were born with, that starts to cause very big problems.

"It's not even about a specific region, this place or that place. The problem is that it is not even possible to formulate a ban on speaking in the language a person wants to speak."

The parallels between Ireland of the pre-famine era and wartime Ukraine should not be overstated, but there are some striking echoes.

Across the occupied territories there is an enforced Russification reaching into schools and homes.

Ukrainian children in the occupied east and south of Ukraine are forbidden from learning their native language, being forced instead to speak Russian.

In November I met a teacher in Kyiv who was giving online Ukrainian classes to children who were in the Russian-occupied part of the Kherson region.

She said that children would regularly have to wipe their phones of any trace of the Ukrainian classes, to the extent that she would often have to send homework three or four times.

This struck me as a hedge school for the 21st century.

Translations premiered in October, eight months after Russian tanks tried to capture the city, and although it has only been staged once or twice a week each performance has been sold out.

"The audience totally appreciates it, but they feel a little bit sad after each performance, because it really touches us, because the play is about us," says assistant producer Anastasye Pavlenko.

Olga Uzun, who plays Máire, says: "The subject matter has been around for a long time, why have soldiers come to our town? Of course it affects you, because my family found themselves in such a situation."

The national theatre has a troupe of some 100 actors.

Some have been drafted into frontline fighting, but those who have remained say that keeping Ukrainian culture alive and present is vital, for audiences and actors alike.

Andriy Kovalenko, who plays Manus, says: "Sometimes I have to force myself to disconnect from what is going on and go somewhere, to the theater, to a movie, an exhibition and just disconnect from reality."

The difference between the Irish locals and British soldiers in Ballybeg in the 1830s is that they cannot communicate with each other, whereas Ukrainians and Russians can very well, due to the close linguistic bonds.

The reality is that that bond has been shattered by the invasion.

"We can't communicate with [Vladimir] Putin at the moment," says Pavlenko.

"The problem is that Irish people and English people didn't understand each other but we're Ukrainian and Russian. We understand the Russian language and we can understand each other. But now we just can't speak to each other because they're in a different universe."

In fact, until a year ago the theatre was known as the Russian Drama Theatre.

The theatre company has since changed its name and banned the use of Russian and Russian plays.

"The 24th of February [2022] was like the starting point, to change everything in our lives," says Pavlenko.

The theatre's funding has been cut as the government struggles to maintain services in the face of the invasion.

But the ticket prices have remained the same, and with each performance the audience is willing to pay for those tickets, often braving air-raid sirens and suspended public transport, to make it to the theatre, and to the Donegal town land of the 1830s.

[Legbiter]

Major smoking incident at a Belarusian military airport. A Russian AWACS A-50 blown up.

[Jacob]

Recently there was that graphic that showed the estimated losses - Ukrainian vs Russian - in the war so far. IIRC it was posted in this thread earlier.

Broadly speaking, the ratios were something like between 1.5:1 and 2:1 in Ukraine's favour (except naval vessels IIRC).

Looking at the macro level - if that ratio of losses continues as is, how much does this favour Russia or Ukraine? I'd expect that Russia has more than a 2:1 advantage in terms of people and materiel, even with the current Western aid (delivered and promised). Or is that incorrect?

[Josquius]

Recently there was that graphic that showed the estimated losses - Ukrainian vs Russian - in the war so far. IIRC it was posted in this thread earlier.

Broadly speaking, the ratios were something like between 1.5:1 and 2:1 in Ukraine's favour (except naval vessels IIRC).

Looking at the macro level - if that ratio of losses continues as is, how much does this favour Russia or Ukraine? I'd expect that Russia has more than a 2:1 advantage in terms of people and materiel, even with the current Western aid (delivered and promised). Or is that incorrect?

Including civilians?

The big question for me would be the ratios in terms of decent professional troops.
If Ukraine has managed to kill the bulk of Russias best without losing too many of its own  then that's a much bigger win than simply killing more conscripts than they've lost.

As I understand it Donbass since 2014 has helped to give Ukraine quite a large number of experienced reserves so... Could well be the case.

[grumbler]

Recently there was that graphic that showed the estimated losses - Ukrainian vs Russian - in the war so far. IIRC it was posted in this thread earlier.

Broadly speaking, the ratios were something like between 1.5:1 and 2:1 in Ukraine's favour (except naval vessels IIRC).

Looking at the macro level - if that ratio of losses continues as is, how much does this favour Russia or Ukraine? I'd expect that Russia has more than a 2:1 advantage in terms of people and materiel, even with the current Western aid (delivered and promised). Or is that incorrect?

Russia's overall military manpower outnumbers Ukraine's by about a 13-5 ratio, but Russia cannot use all of its forces against Ukraine.  Ukraine can use all of its against Russia.  Russia has vastly more potential power, but cannot easily access it.  Ukraine is growing stronger faster than Russia.

Russia can almost certainly stand a ground loss ratio of 1.5:1 in favor of Ukraine, but almost certainly not 2:1.  In the air and at sea, they'd be winning with a 10:1 loss ratio.

[Josquius]

Surprised the thread is so quiet, fairly big news today.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64782626

Belarusian opposition says it damaged Russian warplane

Exiled Belarusian opposition figures say a Russian military plane has been damaged in a drone attack near the capital, Minsk.

Aliksandr Azarov, leader of Belarusian anti-government organisation BYPOL, claimed responsibility for the attack on Telegram.

The Beriev A-50 early warning aircraft was struck by multiple blasts near the Machulishchy airbase.

It comes amid increased cooperation between Minsk and Moscow.

The strikes damaged front and central parts of the aircraft as well as its radar and antenna, BYPOL said on Telegram.

"These were drones. The participants of the operation are Belarusian", Mr Azarov said.

Speaking to the BBC, Franak Viacorka, an adviser to Belarusian opposition leader, said the attack was "creative" and "sophisticated".

"It was very brave because Belarusians are in a situation of the total terror", he told BBC News.

He added that the opposition party was "definitely helped by locals, helped by military" to cause damage to the plane.

However, it is not possible to confirm the opposition's account of what happened.

Both the Russian and Belarusian departments of defence are yet to publicly comment on the incident.

BYPOL, the group that has claimed responsibility for the strike on the aircraft, consists of former law enforcement officers now opposed to President Alexander Lukashenko's office.

It has been listed as a terrorist organisation by Mr Lukashenko's government.

While Belarus has not directly become involved in the war in Ukraine, Mr Lukashenko allowed Russian troops to launch into Ukraine through Belarus.

The two countries have also been participating in joint military training exercises over recent months.

Seems likely to me this was done with a lot of help or even almost entirely by Ukrainian special forces and the good Belarussians are covering their arse.
But good sign of some cooperation here.

[Tamas]

Why do we (e.g. the Guardian) have to call the China thing a "peace plan"? "let's all understand each other and end the fighting, also maintain free trade" is not a bloody peace plan. It's a beauty pageant speech.

[The Larch]

Why do we (e.g. the Guardian) have to call the China thing a "peace plan"? "let's all understand each other and end the fighting, also maintain free trade" is not a bloody peace plan. It's a beauty pageant speech.

It doesn't really matter because even Russia has rejected it outright.

[The Brain]

Has that Trump-related youngling published his peace plan yet?

[Zanza]

Just read a report that Russia is starting to withdraw from the Eastern bank of the Dnipro near Cherson to fortify Crimea instead.

[Josquius]

Just read a report that Russia is starting to withdraw from the Eastern bank of the Dnipro near Cherson to fortify Crimea instead.

Curious if true. Surely the Dniper is the best defensive line you could ask for. And thats just asking for Crimea to be cut off over land...
A trap?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

There are increasing numbers of pro Ukrainian acts of resistance in the Crimea though... small as they may be (flying flags, yellow-blue colored tags...).